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NHL System

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
I think the key to all of these systems is the A/B Labby technique that Montana Max is using.  A more detailed explanation and a link to a site which explains it quite well is on KongKiller's Modified NHL JM Thread.  It limits these chase losses. 
 
sl has a nice idea here that I was also curious about. 
Basically, if you are only going to play games A and B, why not look for a profitable 2 game Road trip scenario with a decent filter to keep out losses.  That would increase the number of plays.....
 
I'll be on the Lightning tonight, but treading carefully with low Labby lines to start.
 
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Posted: #27
And for clarity purposes.....That TB Lightning play is a +1.5 on the PL.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by puppetm716:

The initial post of "historical data" listed  55 A Bets not 55 A wins
 
then 23 B Bets  7 losses.
 
Once again sorry for the confusion but didn't realize it meant wins.
Never followed this system before.
 
Maybe I'll just sit in the balcony to avoid confusing everyone.
 
I'll be watching with my binoculars though. LOL
 
Best of Luck


Puppet - I have not looked at the historical data yet.... you could be 100% correct. I am going over all data tonight and we will get this squared away once and for all! lol.

I see where you got your data now though, you could be right here.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by KMang:

I think the key to all of these systems is the A/B Labby technique that Montana Max is using.  A more detailed explanation and a link to a site which explains it quite well is on KongKiller's Modified NHL JM Thread.  It limits these chase losses. 
 
sl has a nice idea here that I was also curious about. 
Basically, if you are only going to play games A and B, why not look for a profitable 2 game Road trip scenario with a decent filter to keep out losses.  That would increase the number of plays.....
 
I'll be on the Lightning tonight, but treading carefully with low Labby lines to start.


KMang - This is exactly right. We need to find a good filter or 2 for this system and I think we would increase profit drastically. I will be working on it.

Just so everyone knows I am only documenting this system - I have NOT started playing it yet.
 
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Posted: #30

Quote Originally Posted by slwholesales:



Just so everyone knows I am only documenting this system - I have NOT started playing it yet.

OOPS!!  Let just root for the Lightning anyways....shall we?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #31
Let's go Lightning!
 
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Posted: #32
I think JV040 is the member that backtested this system and posted the results...you should hit her up and verify. I could be wrong but I believe it meant 55 A Bet wins, 23 B bet wins, and 7 losses. At least that is how I interpreted it. Cheers.
 
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by stickbit:

I think JV040 is the member that backtested this system and posted the results...you should hit her up and verify. I could be wrong but I believe it meant 55 A Bet wins, 23 B bet wins, and 7 losses. At least that is how I interpreted it. Cheers.
 


I interpreted it the same way. However I am just going to do the analysis myself, and see what I come up with. Look for that later tonight or tomorrow AM.

 

 
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Posted: #34
OFFICIAL 2008-2009 RECORDS

2008-2009 ML – 42 A Bet WINS 13 B Bet WINS 6 Losses
The majority of the ML Wins were as DOGS (This looks really strong). I am going to do further analysis on how many of these wins were as dogs, and apply money management to it.

A ML LOSS is when a Team is FAVORED to win the B Bet and Losses.

2008-2009 +1.5 PL – 13 A Bet WINS 7 B Bet WINS 6 Losses
The losses are when the PL was NOT COVERED (Lost by 2 or more points on the B Game).

2008-2009 Totals: 55 A Bet Wins 20 B Bet Wins and 12 Losses

Noticing a trend – If the first away game covers the PL or ML the second game is usually a ML Win (Further Analysis).
 
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Posted: #35
It appears that the original stats that were done did not take into account if the team was a favorite or a dog.

Most of the ML Losses were by a point, BUT the team was a favorite so they did not cover the PL - which is where I think the mistake happened in the other persons calculations
 
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Posted: #36
first analysis that was done on this assumed that the + 1 1/2 line was being bet on every team that qualifiied. it made no difference if team was favored or dog.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by jv040:

first analysis that was done on this assumed that the + 1 1/2 line was being bet on every team that qualifiied. it made no difference if team was favored or dog.


Correct - when accounting for if the team was a Favorite or a Dog you get 13 more losses.
 
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Posted: #38
I really would like to back test this but I can't seem to find a site to do so.

https://www.dbcsports.com seems to be down.
 
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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by SKiLLsSoLoN:

I really would like to back test this but I can't seem to find a site to do so.

https://www.dbcsports.com seems to be down.

 

it can be done right here on covers.

 
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Posted: #40
I don't think I came up with this exact system for hockey but I did backtrack this using the + 1 1/2 for all games that qualified and the results came out at about 90% all four years for A + B line.
 
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Posted: #41

Here are the teams that have two-game road trips through the end of October (Game one of the trip is listed.) Obviously, if the team loses the home game before, the game (for this system anyway) becomes meaningless :

10/19: Vancouver @ Edmonton

10/22: Boston @ Philadelphia

10/22: New Jersey @ New York Rangers

10/22: Washington @ Atlanta

10/23 Florida @ Pittsburgh

10/24 Edmonton @ Calgary

10/28 Montreal @ Pittsburgh

10/28 New York Rangers @ New York Islanders

10/28 Ottawa @ Florida

10/29: New Jersey @ Boston

10/29: Vancouver @ Los Angeles

10/30 Florida @ Dallas

10/31 Edmonton @ Boston

 
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Posted: #42
I am having a hard time wrapping my head around how this system can be profitable?

With 20 losses, it doesn't seem like this system is worth it.
 
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Posted: #43

TB Lightning becomes the 1st casualty of this system this season.

I am just going to watch.

Hockey PL's are scary.but that should e expected.

Best of Luck to those that continue.

 
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Posted: #44
vancouver is the play for today  +1 1/2  line
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by slwholesales:

It appears that the original stats that were done did not take into account if the team was a favorite or a dog.

Most of the ML Losses were by a point, BUT the team was a favorite so they did not cover the PL - which is where I think the mistake happened in the other persons calculations

in most cases it makes no difference if the team is favored because puck line is almost always offered on low level favorites. I always take the dog if it's available.

 
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Posted: #46

the ducks are killing my 4 game parlay tonight....

i thought by taking the puck line on the rangers was gonna be the tough one... who would have thunk it??  6-2 with 8 to go....

 

come on ducks!

 

 

 
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Posted: #47
Great stuff guys...........
This is what its all about

Speaking of filters how about playing only the top several road teams after another 10 games or so to have a gauge
Or adding in somehow special team's PP &PK +/- differencial
Maybe even not playing teams with star players out

I'm working on some too
Let's throw 'em on the wall and see if they stick
 
 
 
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Posted: #48

According to this list, there are two games tonight (listed below) that fit the parameters; the Ottawa at Florida game could have been part of it, but the Sens lost to Boston in a shootout on Saturday night. The system ooks pretty strong so far:

Quote Originally Posted by eganfordos69:

10/19: Vancouver @ Edmonton WON (PL)

10/22: Boston @ Philadelphia WON (PL)

10/22: New Jersey @ New York Rangers WON

10/22: Washington @ Atlanta WON

10/23 Florida @ Pittsburgh WON (PL)

10/24 Edmonton @ Calgary LOST

10/28 Montreal @ Pittsburgh (-200)

10/28 New York Rangers (-150) @ New York Islanders

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