NHL RPI DOGS Trial

so todays plays would be redwings flames and wild              

Todays plays

PHI +122

CAL +133

MIN -108

and DET if you got it early but now it's at -122 so a no play for me

 

Philly easy win

CAL gave up a goal with 3 minutes in the game

MIN gave up goal early in the 3rd

yea love that philly pick

Record

15-11

No plays today

Todays plays

CAL +105

WIN +101

DAL -110

RC1, did you remove the GF/GA filter where they should have more GF than GA?

Doing some back-testing on all the Wins and Losses here's what I noticed.

1. It is wise to apply WINNERZZZ's strategy of using the opening lines (avoid lines that open up as even on both sides, i.e. -110/-110 for each side). These games are 0-2 for the system.

2. When you play the team that has only a winning record for it's past 5 teams (i.e. 3-2 last 5, 4-1, etc.) the system is 12-5.

3. Now, when you play the team that has a winning record for it's past 5 games, and the team they are playing against has a losing record for their past 5 games (2-3, 1-4, etc.), the system is 9-0, which is pretty sweet, but the number of games played is minimized greatly.

Now I can't backtrack and test to see if GF/GA DIFF has a huge impact as that changes daily, however, I believe it you implement strategies #1 and either #2 or #3, you'll cut down on some of the losses greatly.

hey Pete. If I did it correctly, Cal was a play under the 9-0 system. They opened as a Dog, had a winning record for their past five and the opp had a losing record for their last 5.

DAL and CAL were both plays if you used the filter #3 I suggested. You would of broke even, 10-1 record.

DAL, CAL and WIN would of been a play for filter #2

I'm trying to figure out if GF/GA is also something to account for. Both DAL and CAL have negative GF/GA.

I don't really want to jack RC1's thread, so if he doesn't wish to apply the filters I'll just start up a thread and reference him.

I only used the GF/GA filter for the first play or two because it limited plays and they were winning.  It started out 8-1.  What you would get is say DET 93 for 63 against vs NYR 83 for 61 against.  It would not be a play on DET because they have more goals against but those extra 10 goals scored by DET would have to count for something right?

It was my strategy to use the opening lines as you can read in post #34

We also must remember that the dogs typically do best in the first 1/3 of the season.  For a few weeks all were winning easily while teams like WAS were on losing streaks.

While DAL started as a dog, all 3 picks yesterday ATS would of won.  So you can tell that dogs with a higher RPI are very competitive.  I think looking at the RPI number is also a very important factor.  DAL had a 23 RPI higher then NYI.  They went from a dog to a fav throughout the day.  Now where is the limit?  Would we see a team that is 30 RPI higher start off as a dog or would they be a fav from the start?  Is this a pattern?  Say teams between 22 and 28 RPI or so, cause it would be great value to pick those up early for the +money lines.

I do agree with filters but as we go forward it will be harder to get plays as you will likely not see a winning 5 game record team as a dog vs a losing 5 game record team.  I will have more time over the holidays to run numbers etc.  All ideas are welcomed as this is a trial thread looking for the best strategy possible to win.   While picking dogs 10-1 is profitable but depending on odds a system that goes say 32-26 could end up being even more profitable.

Oh and don't forget the filter, don't bet on the dog if they played the night before, as shown earlier on in the thread.

Great observations and ideas peter1988!  Here's a question for you.  For your 12-5 system can we add the 9-0 system to it or would there be duplicate plays?  If so then it would be worth some risk to get additional plays bringing the record up to 21-5.

The games played in the 12-5 filter and the 9-0 filter are the same, however, the 9-0 filter filtered out more of the losses (and some wins).

As of yesterday:

Filter #1 is:
0-2 (caught 2 losses from the original system, didn't lose any wins)

Filter #2 is:
13-7 (3-6 difference from original system)

Filter #3 is:
10-1 (6-12 difference from the original system)

Original System is:
16-13

Please see post #82 if you don't know what the filters are.

Both DAL and CAL yesterday had negative GF/GA DIFFs, RC1 we should keep track of the DIFF just to see if it matters.

Do you know what the plays of the original system would be today?

Thanks RC and Peter  

TOR +113

Lets see what happens.  TOR is 15 RPI higher.  Both teams are 2-3 last 5 games.  

TOR has SOS .549 P17 GF 93 GA 95 

BUF has SOS .539 P18 GF 81 GA 82

Another ATS winner.

Hey Peter for your filter #2 and #3 how many of the losses would of been ATS winners?

I'm not sure, but I can probably find out for you. Once I'm all done exams ill be free to do more in-depth research.

Toronto lost????

But as a dog they won ATS (+1.5 puckline) which is now 4-0 in the last 4 plays.  Checking out a different angle.

Possible plays PHI +103, NJ +130, TB +107, STL -104, NYR+100

Now for the breakdown

PHI (+5 RPI) 5-0 last 5 games SOS .538 PWR 2  GF 110 GA 85

BOS            3-2 last 5            SOS .543 PWR 12 GF 102 GA 61

NJ (+1 RPI)  4-1                      SOS .544          23      79        86

MON           3-2                      SOS .554          21       82        84

TB (+20 RPI) 2-3                     SOS .560         27        84       105

CLB             2-3                     SOS .565         28        74       102

STL (+35 RPI) 4-1                   SOS .565          7         75        63

NAS              4-1                    SOS ,541         14        83        83

NYR (+1 RPI) 2-3                    SOS .536           4        84        65

PHX              2-3                    SOS .566          13        82        82

Posting the breakdown for future reference.  Trying to find the best way to add a filter or 2 to cut down on the losses.  What started out as 8-1 with the dogs barking has now sent the dogs to hide under the porch. They are all close matchups as the last 5 games records are similar.  I would have to believe that STL and NYR would be the best bets as they have the goaltending.  But for more goals and less against the only play would be NYR. 

 

 

NJ is on a B2B, should be a no play, no?

STL and BOS fit filter #2, none fit filter #3, we'll see how the night goes!

No for NJ, BOS has lower RPI then PHI, STL and NAS both 4-1 in last 5, looks like a coin flip game.

Filter #1 is: 0-2
Filter #2 is: 13-9
Filter #3 is: 10-1

Original System is: 18-16