Posted:
#26
Interesting.
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NHL road trip UNDER
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:
No, SDQL doesnt' have the odds for the Under 2.5.
No, SDQL doesnt' have the odds for the Under 2.5.
However I looked further and what even hits at higher percentage is fading the away team. it hits around 52-56% playing on the home team. Playing under the whole game is just not going to cut it. to each his own. good luck
Again my friend, appreciate your work here and agree that playing the entire game "under", straight wagering in particular, will probably not cut it. I will give it a go on a chase though trusting that even at about a 45% hit rate, the chase doesn't get strung out too long. In regards to fading the road team (one of my favourite scenarios), I've played this in the past with mixed results and would caution again on how this is played. Whilst the hit rate is high, the chalk on these plays is often quite heavy and can easily eclipse winnings even a 60-65% hit rate. This season I am playing the fade as a chase against the +$ only. Its a fairly stress-free approach given the prices and to date has yielded 8.6 units on a 36% hit rate...not too shabby. I'll post the plays along with the "under chase" if anyone has an interest.
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Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by chaser15:
Saturday 10/21:UNDER PLAYS:Pit/TB under 6.5 -118 risking 1.7UMin/CG under 6 -110 risking 1.6USJ/NYI under 5.5-105 risking 1.5UFADE PLAYS:TB PL +207 risking .7UCG PL +197 risking .7UNYI PL +220 risking .6U
Saturday 10/21:UNDER PLAYS:Pit/TB under 6.5 -118 risking 1.7UMin/CG under 6 -110 risking 1.6USJ/NYI under 5.5-105 risking 1.5UFADE PLAYS:TB PL +207 risking .7UCG PL +197 risking .7UNYI PL +220 risking .6U
Hey Chaser, I like that you are trying to do the PL but when I looked at the odds or how many games end in 1 goal margin and how many over 1 the odds are 48% for 1 goal and 52% at over 1 goal or more. So first you have to win that game and then you have to cover the PL. What my suggestion was, why not creat a -1 PL like we do on MLB by combining the PL and the ML together. This way you can drop the -EV and if you win by 1 you would push and not lose and if you win by 2 you win both but if you lose then you lose both, this way you don't take a beating on the -1 1/2 PL specially like on days like today where you have 3 fav that you are playing (eventhough they aren't that huge fav to begin with)
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Posted:
#36
Saturday 10/21 results:
UNDER PLAYS:
Pit/TB under 6.5 -118 LOSS -1.7U
Min/CG under 6 -110 PUSH
SJ/NYI under 5.5-105 LOSS -1.5U
YTD: -6.2U
FADE PLAYS:
TB PL +207 winner 1.5U
CG PL +197 Loss -.7U
NYI PL +220 winner 1.3U
YTD: +1.1U
***NEXT PLAY IS LAK@OTT TUES 10/24***
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Posted:
#44
Friday 10/27 results:
UNDER PLAY:
WPG@CBJ under 6.5 -110 winner +2U
FADE PLAY:
CBJ PL +150 loss -1U
YTD: +2.1U
UNDER PLAY
DAL under 6 -113 winner +1U
YTD: +0.4U
FADE PLAY:
CGY PL +210 loss -.95U
YTD: +1.15U
Sunday 10/29
UNDER PLAY:
PIT@WPG under +100 risking 1U to win 1U
FADE PLAY:
WPG PL +250 risking1.2U to win 3U
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