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NHL Playoffs Chase system

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Trying something out that I've been wanting to track for years and just never fully committed to. I will be tracking this throughout the playoffs and if it's profitable, will follow it next year.

Here's how it works: You pick the 8 Favourites for each series (the home team for Game 1) and bet to win 100$. Basically, you're chasing them and betting on the fact that you don't think they will get swept. For every team that wins Game 1, you can either stop the chase and take the profit for that series, OR you can start a chase on their opponents to at least take 1 game out of the series and to not get swept themselves. Typically, I would probably avoid chasing the 14th-15th-16th seeds, but this depends on the matchup. I've been following hockey for decades and know enough about the sport to know when a team is completely unmatched or not. Besides, in the NHL, underdogs beat favourites on any given night, much more than in NBA and NFL. 


 
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Posted: #2
Here are some stats to look at: Sweeps since 1978

1987: 3 (2P, 1Q)2002: 0
1988: 2 (1Q, F)2003: 2 (1P, 1S)
1989: 3 (2P, 1Q)2004: 1 (1Q)
1990: 2 (1P, 1S)2006: 2 (1P, 1Q)
1991: 02007: 1 (1P)
1992: 5 (2Q, 2S, F)2008: 2 (1P, 1Q)
1993: 3 (2P, 1Q)2009: 4 (3P, 1S)
1994: 2 (2P)2010: 1 (1S)
1995: 4 (3Q, F)2011: 3 (1P, 2Q)
1996: 2 (1P, F)2012: 1 (1Q)
1997: 2 (1Q, F)2013: 2 (1P, 1S)
1998: 3 (1P, 1Q, F)2014: 1 (1P)
1999: 3 (3P)2015: 2 (1P, 1Q)
2000: 2 (2P)
2001: 3 (2P, 1Q)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
I haven't looked at the numbers in terms of juice for the favs, but assuming an underdog sweeps the favourite, you could lose up to 1200$ + Juice.. (correct me if i'm wrong). I'd have to look up how often the fave got swept. It would also be a possibility to drop the 4th game if they go down 3-0 and play game 4 on the road. Again, this is strictly for tracking purposes, I'm not suggesting anyone actually bet this system, I just want to track it on here. If all favs won avoided the sweep, you could make 15 units (1500$). If you decided to also chase the underdog for half of the series (not taking the 4 lowest ranked dogs) could be up 2200 ish... 

A loss can cut into that by a huge margin but still be profitable. 

Just thinking out loud, I'll track it here to see if it holds any water. 






 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
I think this is profitable if you pick and choose the series with the biggest lopsided teams. I'll try keeping track of the top 4-5 teams in the first round. Maybe there's a more profitable way of doing this, I just feel like sweeps of teams who are ranked 12th or better are extremely rare. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Like this logic and system. Will definitely be tracking this as well. Could be very profitable. 


 
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Posted: #6
hehrsy  Thanks brother, I find it rather interesting as well. I do think that chasing every series blindly might get dangerous seeing as 2-3 losses puts you way in the red. But I think picking the right spots might be profitable. 

I think what I'll do is track the result of each series, but before they start, I will state which ones I would have played by simply relying on the matchup. Excited to see what happens
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
I almost like the opposite idea if this on that you should pick the DOG team hoping that the team will at least win 1 game! The worst you could do us a 4 straight game chase loss.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Sask:

I almost like the opposite idea if this on that you should pick the DOG team hoping that the team will at least win 1 game! The worst you could do us a 4 straight game chase loss.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Hmmm... I like that idea as well... Although technically, This "system" does that once the Fav has won a game... I guess it is also possible to wait until the conclusion of Game 1, then chase whoever lost the First game... 

We have our official matchups now. No lines yet, so will be updating this, but so far:

Dallas to win 100$
St Louis to win 100$
Anaheim to win 100$
LA Kings to win 100$
Washington to win 100$ 
Pitt to win 100$
Florida to win 100$
Tampa to win 100$

I have a hard time seeing any sweeps this series.. These matchups seem so close. These playoffs will be so entertaining. 

If I were playing this conservatively, I would only be playing:

Washington
LA Kings
Dallas 

and would likely play these dogs:
Rangers
Red wings
Blackhawks

I'll track my "conservative" record as well as the system record. I'll add lines once they're out
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
Lines are out! Official plays! 

System YTD 0-0
Personal Chases based on matchups: 0-0

St Louis 130$ to win 100$
Anaheim 175$ to win 100$
LA Kings 145$ to win 100$
Washington 280$ to win 100$ 
Pitt 160$ to win 100$
Florida 155$ to win 100$
Tampa 150$ to win 100$ 

Personal Chases:
LA Kings 145$ to win 100$
Washington 280$ to win 100$ 
Dallas 270$ to win 100$
Rangers 100$ to win 150$
Red Wings 100$ to win 130$
Hawks 100$ to win 100$

Lets see how this goes. All these plays are for recording purposes only. As for the personal chases, these simply represent a different angle of the system. Rather than blindly tailing the system, you pick and choose the matchups you feel strongly about.



 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
Fav Only System YTD 3-0 +300$

St Louis 130$ to win 100$ 
Pitt 160$ to win 100$ 
Tampa 150$ to win 100$ 

3 Games down, 3 Chases done. Now, doing this system, in the right spots I would start a chase against the Dog. For the sake of the system, I'll start a chase for all dogs and keep two separate Records. One will be "System 1.1: All Favs" and the other will be "System 1.2 : Favs followed by Dogs" 


Personal Chases 
LA Kings 145$ to win 100$
Washington 280$ to win 100$ 
Dallas 270$ to win 100$
G2 - Rangers 200$ to win 520$
G2 - Red Wings 200$ to win 440$
G2 - Hawks 200$ to win 340$




 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
System 1.1) YTD 5-0 +500$ (Favs)
Washington 280$ to win 100$ 
Dallas 180$ to win 100$ 

Pending:
Anaheim 175$ to win 100$
G2 - LA Kings 355$ to win 245$
G2 - Florida 395$ to win 255$

System 1.2) YTD 0-0 (Dogs Chase ONLY if Favs win Game 1)

Pending
Red Wings 200$ to win 440$
Rangers 200$ to win 520$
Hawks 200$ to win 340$
Minnesota 100$ to win 160$
Philly 100$ to win 165$


Personal Chases based on matchups: 2-0 +200$
Washington 280$ to win 100$ 
Dallas 270$ to win 100$ 

Pending
G2 - Rangers 200$ to win 520$
G2 - Red Wings 200$ to win 440$
G2 - Hawks 200$ to win 340$
G2 - LA Kings 180$ to win 245$

 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
System 1.1) YTD 6-0 +600$ (Favs)

G2 - Florida 395$ to win 255$ 

Pending:
G2 - Anaheim X $ to win 275$ (waiting for line)
G2 - LA Kings 355$ to win 245$

System 1.2) YTD 1-0 +170$ (Dogs Chase ONLY if Favs win Game 1)

Messed up the lines here, The chase STARTS after the Fav wins game 1, I played it as a Game 2, fixed it.

Hawks 100$ to win 170$ 

Pending
Red Wings X$ to win 300$ (waiting for line)
Rangers 100$ to win 260$
Minnesota 100$ to win 160$
Philly 100$ to win 165$


Personal Chases based on matchups: 3-0 +200$

G2 - Hawks 200$ to win 340$

Pending
G2 - Rangers 200$ to win 520$
G3 - Red Wings X $ to win 640$ (waiting for line)
G2 - LA Kings 180$ to win 245$

 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
System 1.1) YTD 6-0 +600$ (Favs)

Pending:
G2 - Anaheim 450$ to win 275$ (waiting for line)
G3 - LA Kings 570$ to win 600$

System 1.2) YTD 2-0 +330$ (Dogs Chase ONLY if Favs win Game 1)

Rangers 100$ to win 260$ 

Pending
G2 - Red Wings 250$ to win 200$ (waiting for line)
G2 - Minnesota 180$ to win 200$
G2 - Philly 150$ to win 200$


Personal Chases based on matchups: 4-0 +520$

G2 - Rangers 200$ to win 520$

Pending
G3 - Red Wings 800 $ to win 640$ 
G3 - LA Kings 400$ to win 420$

 
Rookie
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Posts: 848
Posted: #15
Why would you bet $800 on Detroit in Game 3?

Thanks.

GL
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
For my own chases, I played:

G1 - Red Wings 100$ to win 130$  and then in game two I bet Red Wings 200$ to win 440$ (the lines for them as a dog were pretty huge) so I'm basically taking advantage of how profitable the lines were in games 1 and 2.

In game 3, I could've player to simply win back my 200$ + 100$ profit, but I decided to play for more because I really liked this matchup and was confident enough in them winning today. It was a bit pricy due to the line, I wouldn't suggest doing the same thing... Sometimes I like to play matchups a little bigger than they should. For the Wings, I don't necessarily see them winning again this series. If they would have lost I might have dropped the series altogether.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17
Let's go ducks!!



System 1.1) YTD 6-0 +600$ (Favs)

Pending:
G2 - Anaheim 450$ to win 275$ 
G3 - LA Kings 570$ to win 600$

System 1.2) YTD 3-0 +430$ (Dogs Chase ONLY if Favs win Game 1)
G2 - Red Wings 250$ to win 200$

Pending
G2 - Minnesota 180$ to win 200$
G2 - Philly 150$ to win 200$


Personal Chases based on matchups: 4-0 +860$

G3 - Red Wings 800 $ to win 640$ 

Pending

G3 - LA Kings 400$ to win 420$

 
Rookie
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Posted: #18
Thanks and congrats on the Detroit win. In game 2, did you have the Rangers at +260 on your $200/$520 bet? 

Thanks.

GL
 
Prospect
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Posted: #19
I'm looking back at it now and have a feeling I might've made a mistake on that. I think it was +160, not +260... 260 seems way too high. Maybe that was the series price? I'll look into it
 
Prospect
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Posts: 335
Posted: #20
System 1.1) YTD 6-0 +600$ (Favs)

Pending:
G3 - Anaheim 800$ to win 725$ 
G3 - LA Kings 570$ to win 600$

System 1.2) YTD 3-0 +430$ (Dogs Chase ONLY if Favs win Game 1)

Pending
G2 - Minnesota 180$ to win 200$
G2 - Philly 150$ to win 200$

Personal Chases based on matchups: 4-0 +860$

Pending
G3 - LA Kings 400$ to win 420$

 
Rookie
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Posts: 848
Posted: #21
Game 2(personal): Hawks vs Blues, I see a winning wager (congrats) that paid $340 on a $200 bet. This indicates a line of +170. The Blues were -150, with the Hawks getting back around +135 . Would like to have had that kind of number. Is there a book that you can suggest that pays these kind of inflated odds?

Thanks.

GL
 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
I see the mistake that I made. I was using Bodog which has a very cluttered layout since they made changes. The website is quite buggy so sometimes you have these sideways scrolling bars with all the games, but the series bets are on that same line and it wasn't cleared indicated. So I used the Series line. As I said, the personal bets, although they are the series I would have played myself, I am still not betting on these which makes it difficult to track the actual bet and winning amounts. What I will do is simply consider them as +100 wins when they won up to this point and I'll start from scratch next series for calculating juice.

That's my bad, I've had to rush to write some of these posts so it might explain why I had a lack of focus. I'll update the records
 
Prospect
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Posts: 335
Posted: #23
HOPE THE KINGS GET IT DONE TONIGHT.

System 1.1) YTD 6-0 +600$ (Favs)

Pending:
G3 - Anaheim 800$ to win 725$ 
G3 - LA Kings 570$ to win 600$

System 1.2) YTD 4-0 +400$ (Dogs Chase ONLY if Favs win Game 1)

G2 - Minnesota 180$ to win 200$

Pending
G2 - Philly 150$ to win 200$ Will post G3 tomorrow

Personal Chases based on matchups: 4-0 +480$

Pending
G3 - LA Kings 400$ to win 420$

 
Prospect
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Posts: 335
Posted: #24

System 1.1) YTD 7-0 +700$ (Favs)

G3 - LA Kings 570$ to win 600$

Pending:

G3 - Anaheim 800$ to win 725$ 

System 1.2) YTD 4-0 +400$ (Dogs Chase ONLY if Favs win Game 1)
G2 - Minnesota 180$ to win 200$

Pending
G2 - Philly 150$ to win 200$ Will post G3 tomorrow

Personal Chases based on matchups: 5-0 +600$

G3 - LA Kings 400$ to win 420$
 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 335
Posted: #25

Personal Chases based on matchups: 5-0 +600$

System 1.1) YTD 7-0 +700$ (Favs)
Pending:

G3 - Anaheim 800$ to win 725$ 

System 1.2) YTD 4-0 +400$ (Dogs Chase ONLY if Favs win Game 1)

Pending

G3 - Philly 190$ to win 300$ 

If Philly gets swept, we lose 440+, which brings us back to near even.. That's not half bad for losing a chase series

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