NHL OVER/UNDER TEST STRATEGY

Thank you rage, lets bring it home for the money BOL  

I only got PHI/CAR over 5.5

2 - 3 so far, so hopefully the last 4 will be positive.


TOP 3 GAMES
1/10 - Nashville v Colorado (6) UNDER 5.5 - PENDING
1/10 - Phoenix v Rangers (38) OVER 5 - LOSS
1/10 - San Jose v Minnesota (36)  OVER 5 - PENDING

OTHER SYSTEM GAMES
1/10 - Ottawa v Pittsburgh (2) UNDER 5.5 - LOSS
1/10 - Winnipeg v Boston (37) OVER 5.5 - WIN
1/10 - Buffalo v Toronto (27) OVER 5.5 - LOSS
1/10 - St. Louis v Montreal (42) OVER 5 - PENDING
1/10 - Vancouver v Tampa Bay (46) OVER 5.5 - WIN
1/10 - Dallas v Anaheim (41) OVER 5 - PENDING
1/10 - Detroit v Islanders (50) OVER 5.5 - WIN

Not a bad day at the books...... BOL to you rage .

Hmm, 2 - 1 on my top 3 and 3 - 3 on the others. I need more filters to narrow these games. 9 games is way to many.

TOP 3 GAMES
1/10 - Nashville v Colorado (6) UNDER 5.5 - WIN
1/10 - Phoenix v Rangers (38) OVER 5 - LOSS
1/10 - San Jose v Minnesota (36)  OVER 5 - WIN

OTHER SYSTEM GAMES
1/10 - Ottawa v Pittsburgh (2) UNDER 5.5 - LOSS
1/10 - Winnipeg v Boston (37) OVER 5.5 - WIN
1/10 - Buffalo v Toronto (27) OVER 5.5 - LOSS
1/10 - St. Louis v Montreal (42) OVER 5 - LOSS
1/10 - Vancouver v Tampa Bay (46) OVER 5.5 - WIN
1/10 - Dallas v Anaheim (41) OVER 5 - WIN

Tomorrows pick.

1/11 - Pittsburgh v Washington (6) UNDER 5.5 - PENDING

BOL to ya rage . Are you going to Vegas for the Covers Superbowl Party?

And I got PIT/WAS Over 5.5  lol

I think we need to find the criteria the linesmakers use in determing if the O/U would be a 5 or 6 and then on games that are close to being a 5 or 6 but are not would be an advantage.

Look at NJ/EDM tonight it's a 5.  Now how do they come up with 5?

The last meeting was 7 goals total

The previous 4 meetings were all under 5 but that goes back to 2005 and teams are different now

NJ GF 2.8  EDM GF 2.4 so avg of 2.6 for 5.2 total

NJ GA 3.6 EDM GA 3.8 so avg of 3.7 each

Of course we are on opposite sides. At least one of use will be right.

My method is close (considering its been a little over a week). More data is required to get an accurate assessment of it's value.

I am incorporating the GAA stats of each goalie for that game. I'm looking for any sort of trend to give us an advantage.

I would love to know what the sharps use to set lines on any game, but that is a closely guarded secret. Many speculate to the method, but I have yet to hear of anything definative.

Baseing a pick off previous meetings is never a good idea. The rotation of players, emotional state, and other intangibles make a repeat of those same events highly unlikely.

Filtering is by far the best method. Looking for that small window of games that give us the highest probability of winning. I couldn't care less if I won 100 or 10,000 as long as it consistant. Repeating it over and over again is far more valuable to me.

irage got a comp while on vac

the unders only have two losses ( one in the 0.01 second of the third) if the filter of 3 GAA is used.

For the overs i still havent been able to find any filter but still researching.

keep it up

Nice pickup. I hadn't noticed that unders are doing better.

Here are the games I like today.

1/12 - Colorado 2.08 v Nashville 2.57 (1) UNDER 5.5 - PENDING
1/12 - Vancouver 2.30 v St. Louis 1.62 (4) UNDER 5.5 - PENDING
1/12 - Dallas 2.49 v Los Angeles 1.93 (5) UNDER 5.5 - PENDING
1/12 - San Jose 2.22 v Winnipeg 2.23 (33) OVER 5.5 - PENDING
1/12 - Ottawa 2.00 v NY Rangers 1.85 (34) OVER 5.5 - PENDING

These should be picks, but I am applying a new filter.

1/12 - Montreal v Boston (50) OVER 5.5 - PENDING
1/12 - Philadelphia v NY Islanders (43) OVER 5.5 - PENDING

These plays are off.
1/12 - Carolina v Tampa Bay (14)
1/12 - Phoenix v Detroit (19)
1/12 - Minnesota v Chicago (13)
1/12 - Anaheim v Calgary (23)

i have the 3 under games 5 did you buy .5 ,,by the way great work

BOL to you rage .

Correction: 3 games are at 5. I don't buy points.

1/12 - Colorado 2.08 v Nashville 2.57 (1) UNDER 5 - PENDING
1/12 - Vancouver 2.30 v St. Louis 1.62 (4) UNDER 5 - PENDING
1/12 - Dallas 2.49 v Los Angeles 1.93 (5) UNDER 5 - PENDING
1/12 - San Jose 2.22 v Winnipeg 2.23 (33) OVER 5.5 - PENDING
1/12 - Ottawa 2.00 v NY Rangers 1.85 (34) OVER 5.5 - PENDING

ok, thanks man BOL

rage whats the filter you used for the over plays?

if your willing to share?

RPI difference > 36 and a combined GAA of > 5.00

Correction:

RPI difference greater than 33 but less than 36 and a combined GAA greater than 5.00

 

This is not looking good.

1/12 - Colorado 2.08 v Nashville 2.57 (1) UNDER 5 - PUSH
1/12 - Vancouver 2.30 v St. Louis 1.62 (4) UNDER 5 - PUSH
1/12 - Dallas 2.49 v Los Angeles 1.93 (5) UNDER 5 - PENDING
1/12 - San Jose 2.22 v Winnipeg 2.23 (33) OVER 5.5 - PENDING
1/12 - Ottawa 2.00 v NY Rangers 1.85 (34) OVER 5.5 - LOSS

rage what are the numbers beside the teams?

odds or GAA??

GAA

Got a beat down last night.

1/13 - Anaheim 2.29 v Edmonton 2.43 (6) UNDER 5.5 - PENDING

I just looked at what my picks would of been, 3-0...lol

That's another winner boys.