NHL Opening Game Favorite 94-1 in 2009

Were the kings not a play?

Nevermind. Sorry. Just saw their home stand started the other night

January Series

• 1/1 NAS (DNQ)
• 1/2 PHI (-155, lost)
• 1/3 TOR -133 maybe, STL -170***** PLAY
• 1/4 MON
• 1/5 BOS, PHILLY "B"
• 1/6 PITT, CHI
• 1/7 CAL
• 1/9 FLA
• 1/10 NYI
• 1/11 WAS, EDM
• 1/12 DET, STL
• 1/13 CLB
• 1/14 TOR, MON
• 1/15 CHI, VAN
• 1/17 NJ
• 1/18 ANA
• 1/19 LAK, PHX
• 1/24 TB, FLA, CAL
• ALL STAR BREAK WEEKEND
• 1/31 BOS, PHI

 

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Sorry Kings arent even playing today...  not sure what I was looking at...

 

PHILLY LOST but play them Thursday against CHI for "B" bet

Tonite... STL is for sure a play and TOR still possible.

StLouis looking good for the win

Toronto not a play but are kickin butt

Well, St. Louis came through for the system again but, unfortunately, when I went to bet on the game at Pinnacle, it wasn't available for some reason.  Damn.  Anyway, it doesn't look like Philly qualified officially with a close of -125 at covers.  Mtl at -130 right now, probably not going to be a play.

Philly is a B game from 2 days ago when they were a 170 fav

Check that, WOW. My local had it going the other way... It was 155 and when I took it it was 170
I would SWEAR it stayed above 125... That's weird.

No play tomorrow I guess either.

That is weird.  The fact that lines sometimes change close to game time, disqualifying plays at the last minute, is definitely a drawback to this system.  Bos tomorrow is at -230 right now, at least we should be able to count on it being a play.  I'm taking them puck line.

Plays for today:

Boston -260 Game A

Philadelphia -120 Game B

Boston -260 Game A

Philadelphia -120 Game B

Play for today:

Chicago -200 Game A

Chicago

 

1/7 Calgary -114  NO PLAY

1/7 play chicago -120 game B

Should be a easy winner Conklin in net for Detroit.

Any plays for Sunday?

January Series

• 1/1 NAS DNQ -125
• 1/2 PHI DNQ -125
• 1/3 TOR DNQ -125, STL -153*****
• 1/4 MON DNQ-123
• 1/5 BOS -244*****
• 1/6 PITT DNQ -137, CHI -188****
• 1/7 CAL DNQ-104
• 1/8 CHI "B" -120*******PLAY
• 1/9 FLA
• 1/10 NYI
• 1/11 WAS, EDM
• 1/12 DET, STL
• 1/13 CLB
• 1/14 TOR, MON
• 1/15 CHI, VAN
• 1/17 NJ
• 1/18 ANA
• 1/19 LAK, PHX
• 1/24 TB, FLA, CAL
• ALL STAR BREAK WEEKEND
• 1/31 BOS, PHI

 

DNQ did not qualify  Below are just my doodles just curious on how teams did that we pass on during their home stands.  Gonna go back and look at December too.     Does RIZZ have results/stats on these games we pass on??

• 1/1 NAS -125 W
• 1/2 Phi -125 L, 1/5 W, 1/7 W
• 1/3 TOR -125 W
• 1/4 Mon -123W
• 1/6 PIT -137 L, 1/7 L, 1/10 pending
• 1/7 Cal -104 W

 

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Lets RECAP the season so far

The frustrating thing with this system is the lack of plays, often I forget to check back because plays dont qualify.   So I went back through this season to see what we are missing TEAM by TEAM:

These results show the start date of the home series followed by game results of game 1, game 2 etc.   NO FILTERS    these are the results using ONLY HOME STANDS of 3 games or more

• NJ (10/8 Lost, won)(11/5 won) (1/4 lost, won)
• NYI (10/8 lost, won)(10/29 lost, lost won) (11/15 lost, won) (12/6 won)
• NYR (10/27 lost, lost, won)(12/22 won)
• PHI (10/20 lost, lost, won) (1/2 lost won)
• Pit (10/11 won) (11/21 won) (1/6 lost, lost, pending)
• CHI (10/8 won) (12/21 won)
• CLB (11/10 lost, won) (12/8 lost lost won)
• DET (11/1 lost lost won)
• NAS (10/25 lost, won) (11/12 lost, won) (12/10 won) (1/1 won)
• STL (11/8 won) (12/3 lost, won) (1/3 won)
• BOS (10/6 lost, won) (10/18 lost, won) (11/7 won) (1/5 won)
• BUF (10/25 lost, won) (11/26 won) (12/7 lost, won)
• MON (10/13 lost, lost, lost) (10/22 lost, lost, won) (12/13 won)
• OTT (10/18 lost, won) (11/4 lost, lost lost) (12/14 lost won)
• TOR (10/18 won) (12/17 lost lost won) (1/3 won)
• CAL (10/18 won) (12/6 won)
• COL (10/28 lost won) (11/18 won)(12/17 won)
• EDM (10/20 lost won) (11/28 lost lost won)
• MIN (10/13 won) (11/17 won)
• VAN (10/18 lost, won) (11/13 won) (11/29 won) (12/19 won)
• CAR (11/1 won) (11/29 lost lost lost) (12/21 lost won)
• FLA (10/31 lost lost lost) (11/19 wown) (12/13 lost won) (12/27 won)
• TB (10/17 lost won) (11/17 won) (12/27 won)
• WAS (11/21 won) (11/29 won) (12/1 won)
• WIN (11/14 won) (11/29 lost won) (12/13 won)
• ANA (10/8 won) (11/9 lost won) (11/25 lost lost won) (12/29 lost lost lost)
• DAL (10/10 won) (10/27 lost won) (11/19 lost won) (12/9 won) (12/29 Lost, won)
• LAK (11/8 won) (11/26 lost won) (12/31 won)
• PHX (10/15 won) (10/25 lost won) (11/3 lost won) (11/23 won)
• SJ (11/3 won) (12/1 won) (12/15 won) (1/5 won)

As we can see (if you can understand the above) if we chased every 3+ home stand with no filters we would have been

 90-5 (94%) ytd

A games 46-44 (51%)

B games 28-15 (65%)

C games 9-5 (65%)

 

 

So WHAT IF

we filter game a with the Rizz's -145 filter.   That has given us a 20-8??   (wheres spoutec?) and chase all the game on game 2 of a home stand 3 or more...

that would take our game A percentage to around 65%, B games would stay the same and C games would stay the same.

65% = Money

How about a secondary filter, where you only bet on teams with a .60 (just picked that out of thin air, but there will be a #), win percentage in addition to the -145 filter.

Well the season is half under way...    you could look at teams with a Home Win Percentage too...

Should we start a new thread or add to this one???

Chicago for 2 tonight !!

January Series

• 1/1 NAS
• 1/2 PHI DNQ
• 1/3 TOR DNQ, STL
• 1/4 MON DNQ  
• 1/5 BOS
• 1/6 PITT DNQ,  CHI lost game A
• 1/7 CAL DNQ
• 1/8 CHI game B lost
• 1/9 FLA DNQ
• 1/10 NYI
• 1/11 WAS, EDM
• 1/12 DET, STL
• 1/13 CLB
• 1/14 TOR, MON
• 1/15 CHI, VAN
• 1/17 NJ
• 1/18 ANA
• 1/19 LAK, PHX
• 1/24 TB, FLA, CAL
• ALL STAR BREAK WEEKEND
• 1/31 BOS, PHI

CHICAGO TOMORROW -255 (not cool)   thats 1000 to win 400

System so far this year:

29-0

A games = 20-10

B games = 8-3

C games = 2-0 (Chi C game pending)

losses =

One thing I noticed looking back on past seasons, others were saying that on series where the line for the home team in the opening game opened and closed at -145 or better, betting puck line only added a couple of losses all year.  The Chicago series would qualify, so I'm taking them puck line in the C game tomorrow.  That way I don't have to risk as much to win my money back on this series.  Also, Columbus has lost 11 of their last 14.