NHL Odds-based strategy 2019-2020

I had bad runs in baseball with this strategy but never fell in red zone. Long season ahead, let's stay disciplined during the storm

Good luck! 

All right guys, dogs are overheating this early season and it won't last, bookies gonna adjust this.

STILL, I am making the first adjustment of the year.  Play only away teams. With identical odds, they are more profitable than home bets. 

In fact, I had thought about doing it at first but there weren't enough bets in the odds-range and I decided to include home teams. That's being said, to have enough bets, I have to widen the odds range and will therefore include favorites up to about -150. 

12-14

Blues -127 / 1.60%

Wild -134 / 1.69%

13-15

Tampa  - 135 / 1.79%

A winning day! I'm not sure if my conservative MM would be enough to get back those losses. We'll see.

By the way, off record, I'm testing another strategy with road dogs (around 105-125) on +0.5 regular time (odds around -150/-115, as in this thread). I'm expecting a 45% win ratio (regular & OT) + 10% corresponding to overtime losses turning into a win. Started well yesterday with Coyotes and Predators wins. Some would say that it's silly to pay -150 for a dog which would eventually win in regular time but I'm always looking for +50% win%.

I'll keep you informed. 

For those who'd like to follow the +0.5 strategy, here is the tinyurl code for the sheet y6kfw89b. Various games tonight but some odds are way too expensive for dogs <110 ML (around -160 reg PL).

110/130 ML dogs seems a good range to get around 2 plays a day with 55% win ratio on PL +0.5.

14-15

Predators  -120 / 1.59%

14-16

Carolina -119 / 2.37%

NHL is tough. I want to make +10% a month which was quite easy in baseball with only one strategy (+44% in little less than 4 months). It's quite tiring to bet every single day and I'd like to take a break monthly, every time I reach my goal.

So I'm trying other stuff in order to have lower monthly objectives per strategy, 5% with two strategies or 3.5% with 3...

I'll keep posting here this strategy #1 and give updates on the other(s) from time to time (reg +0.5 and OT +1.5). 

Thanks! Long season ahead, we'll see what happens next few weeks. It cannot stand above 50%...

14-17

Vegas  - 123 / 2.93%

Flames  - 140 / 3.34%

Hope you played Vegas, bluestar... I learned to bet blindly because it's way too unpredictable... road favs are only 50% so far (58.1% last 3 years). It will bounce back but it's frustrating to start the season in red zone.

15-18

Capitals -131 / 3.12%

Nice win from the Caps.

week 2 recap (forgot to do it last week): 7-11 (-4.8%)

week 3 : 4-4 (-1.6%)

october: 16-18 (-5.3%)

My reg +0.5 game is going great. I'm now 10-5 in 6 days (including 2 OT losses turining into a win) and +3.8% so I pull the plug for the month.

The OT +1.5 is 2-2 (-0.6%)

Hope to reach the +3.5% in the 2 losing games before november. 10 days ahead!

Well, thanx for asking because I'm not quite sure about it ...kind of work in progress.

I try to pick the same range as in the main game (from -150 to -115) but I may narrow the picks to -150/-125 games if there are too many plays per day. I really don't like to bet more than 2 or 3 games a day for each strategy (the more you bet, the more you lose). And it's hard to predict the number of games for AH, even with Sdql, because two same ML odds won't give you the same AH odds.

So for reg +0.5, it's usually ML dogs around from 110 to 125. For OT +1.5 you have to look at ML dogs around 160-220 but it's really not an exact science and it can be tough, psychologically, to lay juice on Ottawa or Detroit...

I could not find any satisfying AH range for 125-160 dogs. (OT +1 but I prefer to bet on .5 AH)

+0.5 is for regular time. If the game goes to OT you win, whatever happens (like Edmonton yesterday)

These are the 3 tinyurl link for each strategy's sheets. I'll keep posting only the main game (which is, by the way, the less successul...). I say it again: I try to get +3.5% on each strategy per month. That's why the +0.5 reg game is over in october.

ML: y4age84d

+0.5 Reg: y6kfw89b

+1.5 OT: yxfnsfrp

16-18

Canucks  - 117 /2.19%

Vegas  - 119 /2.23%

18-18

No play today (only Pittsburgh in +1.5)

Carolina - 120 /1.59%

Sabres -117 /1.56%

Capitals - 127 / 1.69%

18-21 (4-7 in OT... ) 

Islanders -128 /2.67%

19-21

Flames  - 129 / 2.57%

19-22

Blues  - 132 / 3.93%

Another OT loss yesterday. Sdql tells me that bad luck strikes hard this month compared to other months/seasons. It won't last but, anyway it goes, I will not bet more than 4% of the bank, even if it loses tonight.

OT win for the Blues. Anyway, I'm gonna think of another strategy for hockey because this is too much struggling for minus zero at the end of the month. I'm now -4.7% overall on the 3 strategies and I prefer to pull the plug now with this small loss.

Never been in red zone with this strategy in baseball so something's wrong here. I did see that NHL is more expensive than MLB: for same win%, you got to pay more; but I wanted to give it a try. Furthermore, maybe this strategy is not meant to be play in early season.

Some nice stuff to think about in NHL main forum. I'll be out of town/country/continent next week but I'll be back soon or later. 

GL to all!

Just stopping by to say that the sheet (tinyurl y4age84d) is active again. After a quick break, I'm back in business, adding some filters to my NHL bets, looking for the sweet spot.

I play favorites with winning record vs teams with losing record (OT and SO included), on PL -1 or -1 regulation (for heavy juiced teams like Canes yesterday). When both teams have winning records, I'm on the dog (like Coyotes yesterday), except if he's B2B.

Won't post here but the sheet is open. Let see how this goes!

Hi, I'm wondering if anyone knows somewhere to get historical odds from the 22/23 season? Does anyone have that data themselves and are willing to share it? I'm looking for the puck line odds from each game, it could be the opening or closing lines from any book.

Thank you.