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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    NHL Homestand System

    12345 Next Last»
    rkokos19
    esposito10304
    Irish7878
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    rkokos19
    rkokos19
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    Posted: Oct. 17, 2019 - 11:21 AM ET #1

    NHL Homestands of at least 4 games with a 4 game chase.  Losses can be big but its been profitable for me for the last 5 years.  We bet to win 1 unit per homestand that fits the criteria below.  If we lose Game 1 (Game A as I will call it), Game B will be to recoup the losses from Game A, plus 1 Unit.  Always net +1.00 Unit at the end of the chase.

    Rules:

    Pre-Thanksgiving:

    Play for Win: Win % or Home % >.500 AND Opponent Road %<.500

    Play for Win: W3 Streak going into Homestand

    Post-Thanksgiving:

    Play for Win: Win % AND Home % >.500

    Play for Win: W3 Streak going into Homestand

    Entire Year:

    Play for Home Loss: Home % =<.500

    Play for Home Loss: Opponent Road % >=.500

    Play for Home Loss: L3 Streak going into Homestand

    Do not play for Homestand Win if the Homestand is broken up by a 5 day break. It is okay to play for Homestand Win if the 4 games are before or after a 5 day break.

    Use +1.5 for all situation if the team we are taking is a dog.

    I will do my best to post plays here early enough for people to tail or fade.  As always manage your bankroll as we may have several open plays/chases going on at once. GL!

    -Koko

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    NHL Homestands of at least 4 games with a 4 game chase.  Losses can be big but its been profitable for me for the last 5 years.  We bet to win 1 unit per homestand that fits the criteria below.  If we lose Game 1 (Game A as I will call it), Game B will be to recoup the losses from Game A, plus 1 Unit.  Always net +1.00 Unit at the end of the chase.

    Rules:

    Pre-Thanksgiving:

    Play for Win: Win % or Home % >.500 AND Opponent Road %<.500

    Play for Win: W3 Streak going into Homestand

    Post-Thanksgiving:

    Play for Win: Win % AND Home % >.500

    Play for Win: W3 Streak going into Homestand

    Entire Year:

    Play for Home Loss: Home % =<.500

    Play for Home Loss: Opponent Road % >=.500

    Play for Home Loss: L3 Streak going into Homestand

    Do not play for Homestand Win if the Homestand is broken up by a 5 day break. It is okay to play for Homestand Win if the 4 games are before or after a 5 day break.

    Use +1.5 for all situation if the team we are taking is a dog.

    I will do my best to post plays here early enough for people to tail or fade.  As always manage your bankroll as we may have several open plays/chases going on at once. GL!

    -Koko

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
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    Posted: Oct. 17, 2019 - 11:28 AM ET #2

    First play of the year:

    Fade STL - Home Win % <=.500

    Risk 1.65 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Vancouver Canucks +1.5 -165.

    GL!

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    First play of the year:

    Fade STL - Home Win % <=.500

    Risk 1.65 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Vancouver Canucks +1.5 -165.

    GL!

     
    esposito10304
    esposito10304
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    Posts: 321
    Posted: Oct. 17, 2019 - 1:48 PM ET #3

    GL clover

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    GL clover

     
    Irish7878
    Irish7878
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    Posts: 2838
    Posted: Oct. 17, 2019 - 4:15 PM ET #4

    Betting home teams (and paying for it) in a league where there really is no team advantage?

     

    Good luck anyways!

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    Betting home teams (and paying for it) in a league where there really is no team advantage?

     

    Good luck anyways!

     
    Irish7878
    Irish7878
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    Posts: 2838
    Posted: Oct. 17, 2019 - 4:16 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by Irish7878:

    Betting home teams (and paying for it) in a league where there really is no team advantage?   Good luck anyways!

     

    Sorry, meant to write no home team advantage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Irish7878:

    Betting home teams (and paying for it) in a league where there really is no team advantage?   Good luck anyways!

     

    Sorry, meant to write no home team advantage.

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2019 - 11:52 AM ET #6

    Winner on our first chase of the year. VAN wins and we cover.

    Overall Record: 1-0 +1.00 Units

    • Game A: 1-0
    • Game B: 0-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Next potential Homestand NYR on 10/20. So no play today.

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    Winner on our first chase of the year. VAN wins and we cover.

    Overall Record: 1-0 +1.00 Units

    • Game A: 1-0
    • Game B: 0-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Next potential Homestand NYR on 10/20. So no play today.

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2019 - 12:57 PM ET #7

    Fade NYR

    Game A: Risk 2.45 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Vancouver Canucks +1.5 -245.

    GL!

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    Fade NYR

    Game A: Risk 2.45 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Vancouver Canucks +1.5 -245.

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
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    Posted: Oct. 21, 2019 - 1:47 PM ET #8

    Winner on our second chase of the year. VAN wins again and we cover again.

    Overall Record: 2-0 +2.00 Units

    • Game A: 2-0
    • Game B: 0-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Next Up: Fade DAL

    Game A: Risk 1.45 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Ottawa Senators +1.5 -145.

    GL!

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    Winner on our second chase of the year. VAN wins again and we cover again.

    Overall Record: 2-0 +2.00 Units

    • Game A: 2-0
    • Game B: 0-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Next Up: Fade DAL

    Game A: Risk 1.45 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Ottawa Senators +1.5 -145.

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2019 - 3:44 PM ET #9

    Winner on Game A. OTT scores late and we cover.

    Overall Record: 3-0 +3.00 Units

    • Game A: 3-0
    • Game B: 0-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Next potential Homestand VGS on 10/25. So no play today.

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    Winner on Game A. OTT scores late and we cover.

    Overall Record: 3-0 +3.00 Units

    • Game A: 3-0
    • Game B: 0-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Next potential Homestand VGS on 10/25. So no play today.

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2019 - 11:36 AM ET #10

    We are on Vegas Golden Knights tonight.  They have Win % and Home Win % > .500 AND Opp Road Win % < .500.

    Game A: Risk 1.62 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Vegas Golden Knights ml -162.

    GL!

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    We are on Vegas Golden Knights tonight.  They have Win % and Home Win % > .500 AND Opp Road Win % < .500.

    Game A: Risk 1.62 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Vegas Golden Knights ml -162.

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2019 - 10:34 AM ET #11

    Vegas Golden Knights get blown out.

    Open Chase: On VGK Game B continues 10/27.

    Overall System Record: 3-0 +3.00 Units

    • Game A: 3-1
    • Game B: 0-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 3-1 +1.38 Units

    We have another play starting today with CAR.  An interesting situation that happens 1-2 times per year, where the system calls to play on the home team and fade the home team.  I've played both situations and hope for a 1 goal win by CAR.

    Carolina Hurricanes Win % and Home Win % > .500 AND Opp Road Win % < .500.

    Play: Game A: Risk 1.89 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Carolina Hurricanes ml -189.

    Carolina Hurricanes Losing streak of 3 games going into Homestand.

    Play: Game A: Risk 1.55 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 -155.

    GL!

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    Vegas Golden Knights get blown out.

    Open Chase: On VGK Game B continues 10/27.

    Overall System Record: 3-0 +3.00 Units

    • Game A: 3-1
    • Game B: 0-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 3-1 +1.38 Units

    We have another play starting today with CAR.  An interesting situation that happens 1-2 times per year, where the system calls to play on the home team and fade the home team.  I've played both situations and hope for a 1 goal win by CAR.

    Carolina Hurricanes Win % and Home Win % > .500 AND Opp Road Win % < .500.

    Play: Game A: Risk 1.89 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Carolina Hurricanes ml -189.

    Carolina Hurricanes Losing streak of 3 games going into Homestand.

    Play: Game A: Risk 1.55 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 -155.

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
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    Posts: 117
    Posted: Oct. 28, 2019 - 4:58 PM ET #12

    Sorry about the non-post yesterday...

    We were on Vegas to win 2.62 Units for Game B...Updated Record: 

    Open Chase: Fade CAR Game B continues 10/29.

    Overall System Record: 5-0 +5.00 Units

    • Game A: 4-2
    • Game B: 1-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 5-2 +3.45 Units

    Next Play Tomorrow: CAR Game B Fade.

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    Sorry about the non-post yesterday...

    We were on Vegas to win 2.62 Units for Game B...Updated Record: 

    Open Chase: Fade CAR Game B continues 10/29.

    Overall System Record: 5-0 +5.00 Units

    • Game A: 4-2
    • Game B: 1-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 5-2 +3.45 Units

    Next Play Tomorrow: CAR Game B Fade.

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
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    Posts: 117
    Posted: Oct. 31, 2019 - 6:06 PM ET #13

    Sorry about the non-post the last couple days, been traveling a lot and that won't be the case moving forward...

    We had Fade CAR game B to win 2.55 Units for Game B. We were also on ANA on 10/29 for 1.00 Unit. Updated Record: 

    Overall System Record: 7-0 +7.00 Units

    • Game A: 5-2
    • Game B: 2-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 7-2 +7.00 Units

    Next Potential Game: 11/1 SJS Homstand. No Play Today!

    GL!

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    Sorry about the non-post the last couple days, been traveling a lot and that won't be the case moving forward...

    We had Fade CAR game B to win 2.55 Units for Game B. We were also on ANA on 10/29 for 1.00 Unit. Updated Record: 

    Overall System Record: 7-0 +7.00 Units

    • Game A: 5-2
    • Game B: 2-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 7-2 +7.00 Units

    Next Potential Game: 11/1 SJS Homstand. No Play Today!

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
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    Posts: 117
    Posted: Nov. 1, 2019 - 12:50 PM ET #14

    San Jose Sharks Losing streak of 3 games going into Homestand.

    Play: Game A: Risk 1.80 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Winnipeg Jets +1.5 -180.

    GL!

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    San Jose Sharks Losing streak of 3 games going into Homestand.

    Play: Game A: Risk 1.80 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Winnipeg Jets +1.5 -180.

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
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    Posted: Nov. 2, 2019 - 2:46 PM ET #15

    We won on Game A on SJS fade.  WPG won outright!  Updated Record: 

    Overall System Record: 8-0 +8.00 Units

    • Game A: 6-2
    • Game B: 2-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 8-2 +8.00 Units

    Next Potential Game: 11/5 NYI, WPG, CGY Homstands. No Play Today!

    GL!

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    We won on Game A on SJS fade.  WPG won outright!  Updated Record: 

    Overall System Record: 8-0 +8.00 Units

    • Game A: 6-2
    • Game B: 2-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 8-2 +8.00 Units

    Next Potential Game: 11/5 NYI, WPG, CGY Homstands. No Play Today!

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
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    Posts: 117
    Posted: Nov. 5, 2019 - 6:03 PM ET #16

    Play On NYI: Win% > .500 AND Opp Road Win% < .500.

    Game A: Risk 2.44 Units to win 1.00 Unit on New York Islanders ml -244.

    Play On WPG: Win% > .500 AND Opp Road Win% < .500.

     

    Game A: Risk 1.27 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Winnipeg Jets ml -127.

    Fade WPG: Home Win% <.500.

     

    Game A: Risk 2.15 Units to win 1.00 Unit on New Jersey Devils +1.5 -215.

    Play On CGY:  Home Win% > .500 AND Opp Road Win% < .500.

     

    Game A: Risk 1.56 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Calgary Flames ml -156.

    Again...hoping for a middle in the WPG/NJD Game!

    GL!

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    Play On NYI: Win% > .500 AND Opp Road Win% < .500.

    Game A: Risk 2.44 Units to win 1.00 Unit on New York Islanders ml -244.

    Play On WPG: Win% > .500 AND Opp Road Win% < .500.

     

    Game A: Risk 1.27 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Winnipeg Jets ml -127.

    Fade WPG: Home Win% <.500.

     

    Game A: Risk 2.15 Units to win 1.00 Unit on New Jersey Devils +1.5 -215.

    Play On CGY:  Home Win% > .500 AND Opp Road Win% < .500.

     

    Game A: Risk 1.56 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Calgary Flames ml -156.

    Again...hoping for a middle in the WPG/NJD Game!

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 117
    Posted: Nov. 6, 2019 - 6:58 PM ET #17

    NYI Game A Winner, WPG Fade Game A Winner, CGY Game A Winner!

    We lost on WPG Game A...we continue to Game B on 11/8.

    Updated Record: 

    Overall System Record: 11-0 +11.00 Units

    • Game A: 9-3
    • Game B: 2-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 11-3 +9.73 Units

    No Play until Game B on WPG (11/8)

    GL!

    Reply
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    NYI Game A Winner, WPG Fade Game A Winner, CGY Game A Winner!

    We lost on WPG Game A...we continue to Game B on 11/8.

    Updated Record: 

    Overall System Record: 11-0 +11.00 Units

    • Game A: 9-3
    • Game B: 2-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 11-3 +9.73 Units

    No Play until Game B on WPG (11/8)

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 117
    Posted: Nov. 8, 2019 - 11:06 AM ET #18

    Thanks BlueStar, good start to the year, hoping to keep this going.

    WPG Homestand:

    Game B: Risk 2.72 Units to win 2.27 Units on Winnipeg Jets ml -120.

    GL!

    Reply
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    Thanks BlueStar, good start to the year, hoping to keep this going.

    WPG Homestand:

    Game B: Risk 2.72 Units to win 2.27 Units on Winnipeg Jets ml -120.

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 117
    Posted: Nov. 9, 2019 - 8:58 AM ET #19

    We won WPG Game B!

    Updated Record: 

    Overall System Record: 12-0 +12.00 Units

    • Game A: 9-3
    • Game B: 3-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 12-3 +12.00 Units

    Next potential play: Tomorrow (11/10) Vancouver Canucks

    GL!

    Reply
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    We won WPG Game B!

    Updated Record: 

    Overall System Record: 12-0 +12.00 Units

    • Game A: 9-3
    • Game B: 3-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 12-3 +12.00 Units

    Next potential play: Tomorrow (11/10) Vancouver Canucks

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 117
    Posted: Nov. 10, 2019 - 8:28 AM ET #20

    Play on VAN: Win % > .500 AND Opp Road Win % <.500.

    Game A: Risk 1.65 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Vancouver Canucks ml -165.

    Fade VAN: L3 going into homestand.

    Game A: Risk 1.70 Units to win 1.00 Unit on New Jersey Devils +1.5 -170.

    Again, hoping for a middle...

    GL!

    Reply
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    Play on VAN: Win % > .500 AND Opp Road Win % <.500.

    Game A: Risk 1.65 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Vancouver Canucks ml -165.

    Fade VAN: L3 going into homestand.

    Game A: Risk 1.70 Units to win 1.00 Unit on New Jersey Devils +1.5 -170.

    Again, hoping for a middle...

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 117
    Posted: Nov. 12, 2019 - 4:23 PM ET #21

    We won fade VAN, and lost VAN.

    Updated Record: 

    Overall System Record: 13-0 +13.00 Units

    • Game A: 10-4
    • Game B: 3-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 13-4 +11.35 Units

    Today's Play:

    Play on VAN Game B: Risk 6.23 Units to win 2.65 Units on Vancouver Canucks +1.5 -235.

    GL!

    Reply
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    We won fade VAN, and lost VAN.

    Updated Record: 

    Overall System Record: 13-0 +13.00 Units

    • Game A: 10-4
    • Game B: 3-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 13-4 +11.35 Units

    Today's Play:

    Play on VAN Game B: Risk 6.23 Units to win 2.65 Units on Vancouver Canucks +1.5 -235.

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 117
    Posted: Nov. 13, 2019 - 5:40 PM ET #22

    Thanks Bluestar!

    Vancouver won outright!

    Updated Record: 

    Overall System Record: 14-0 +14.00 Units

    • Game A: 10-4
    • Game B: 4-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 14-4 +14.00 Units

    Next Potential Plays: 11/16 Florida Panthers & 11/16 St. Louis Blues.

    GL!

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    Thanks Bluestar!

    Vancouver won outright!

    Updated Record: 

    Overall System Record: 14-0 +14.00 Units

    • Game A: 10-4
    • Game B: 4-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 14-4 +14.00 Units

    Next Potential Plays: 11/16 Florida Panthers & 11/16 St. Louis Blues.

    GL!

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 117
    Posted: Nov. 14, 2019 - 1:21 PM ET #23

    Nice catch, for some reason I had put the start date for this series as 11/16 and not 11/14.  Today is the start of FLA, not 11/16. I will post the play a little later today!

    Thanks for pointing that out.

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    Nice catch, for some reason I had put the start date for this series as 11/16 and not 11/14.  Today is the start of FLA, not 11/16. I will post the play a little later today!

    Thanks for pointing that out.

     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 117
    Posted: Nov. 14, 2019 - 5:56 PM ET #24

    Today's Play:

    Fade FLA: Home Win % <= .500.

    Game A: Risk 1.60 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Winnipeg Jets +1.5 -160.

    GL!

    Reply
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    Today's Play:

    Fade FLA: Home Win % <= .500.

    Game A: Risk 1.60 Units to win 1.00 Unit on Winnipeg Jets +1.5 -160.

    GL!

     
     
    rkokos19
    rkokos19
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 117
    Posted: Nov. 15, 2019 - 10:56 AM ET #25

    Winnipeg wins outright!

    Updated Record:

    Overall System Record: 15-0 +15.00 Units

    • Game A: 11-4
    • Game B: 4-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 15-4 +15.00 Units

    Next Potential Play: Tomorrow (11/16) St. Louis Blues.

    GL!

    Reply
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    Winnipeg wins outright!

    Updated Record:

    Overall System Record: 15-0 +15.00 Units

    • Game A: 11-4
    • Game B: 4-0
    • Game C: 0-0
    • Game D: 0-0

    Overall Record/Bankroll: 15-4 +15.00 Units

    Next Potential Play: Tomorrow (11/16) St. Louis Blues.

    GL!

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