I sure hope not... you realize this is a 3 game chase right ?,, a level 3 play would mean i have lost the first 2 and have the remaining 70% of the roll on the line !
Ummm...no, I didn't understand that part of it. (Red face)
So now that I do understand, I will keep my dumb-ass questions to myself.
Great thread, by the way. Fun, not too much stress, at least for now. When we start heading into big numbers, that will change, I'm sure.
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Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:
I sure hope not... you realize this is a 3 game chase right ?,, a level 3 play would mean i have lost the first 2 and have the remaining 70% of the roll on the line !
Ummm...no, I didn't understand that part of it. (Red face)
So now that I do understand, I will keep my dumb-ass questions to myself.
Great thread, by the way. Fun, not too much stress, at least for now. When we start heading into big numbers, that will change, I'm sure.
If I were to do this at SportsInteraction, what would you guys say would be the best way to go about doing this? Since they have -250 odds....maybe a 2-3 line labby? Straight up chase? Thanks guys....
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If I were to do this at SportsInteraction, what would you guys say would be the best way to go about doing this? Since they have -250 odds....maybe a 2-3 line labby? Straight up chase? Thanks guys....
Guys, I know this is for fun, but I ran some numbers through a streak calculator anyways...and probability says this is going to be very hard to do.
Assuming there's about 25 or so weeks left in the NHL, about 2 plays a night, there will be somewhere in the vicinity of 300-400 plays.
Series Length: 300 Losing Streak Length: 3 Loss Probability: 30% Streak Probability: 99.7%
So, apparently there's a whopping 0.3% chance that you can go 300 games without losing three in a row.
Streak probabilities for other streak lengths:
4: 82.1% 5: 39.8%
But obviously this lowers your Level 1 plays and will considerably slow the bankroll growth. I don't know how much, maybe someone wants to look into it.
If you think you're able to bump up the winning percentage to 75% using divisional games and whatnot, then the losing streak probabilities are:
3: 97.3% 4: 58.5% 5: 19.6%
If I have a choice of a 2.7% chance of turning $100 into $10,000 or a 41.5% chance of turning $100 into $2,000 (complete guess), I'll take the latter every time. Again, I realize this one is for fun, but something to think about and play around with maybe.
BOL
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Guys, I know this is for fun, but I ran some numbers through a streak calculator anyways...and probability says this is going to be very hard to do.
Assuming there's about 25 or so weeks left in the NHL, about 2 plays a night, there will be somewhere in the vicinity of 300-400 plays.
Series Length: 300 Losing Streak Length: 3 Loss Probability: 30% Streak Probability: 99.7%
So, apparently there's a whopping 0.3% chance that you can go 300 games without losing three in a row.
Streak probabilities for other streak lengths:
4: 82.1% 5: 39.8%
But obviously this lowers your Level 1 plays and will considerably slow the bankroll growth. I don't know how much, maybe someone wants to look into it.
If you think you're able to bump up the winning percentage to 75% using divisional games and whatnot, then the losing streak probabilities are:
3: 97.3% 4: 58.5% 5: 19.6%
If I have a choice of a 2.7% chance of turning $100 into $10,000 or a 41.5% chance of turning $100 into $2,000 (complete guess), I'll take the latter every time. Again, I realize this one is for fun, but something to think about and play around with maybe.
Ray Stevens flashed into my head as soon as I saw the words 'streak calculator.'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtzoUu7w-YM
BTW, according to Neilsy, there are 145 games left, not 300. I'm playing this with chump change, not the kid's college fund. In three weeks, we have a 42% ROI. I say let's ride!
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Ray Stevens flashed into my head as soon as I saw the words 'streak calculator.'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtzoUu7w-YM
BTW, according to Neilsy, there are 145 games left, not 300. I'm playing this with chump change, not the kid's college fund. In three weeks, we have a 42% ROI. I say let's ride!
jimmy rickards...first of all thanks for mentioning the streak calculator, didnt even know they existed, googled and found one right away.playing with that gave me a great idea on how to do this ,for another thread...however, i am gonna let er ride here..and keep dodgin those bullets for another 145 games
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jimmy rickards...first of all thanks for mentioning the streak calculator, didnt even know they existed, googled and found one right away.playing with that gave me a great idea on how to do this ,for another thread...however, i am gonna let er ride here..and keep dodgin those bullets for another 145 games
Hey neilsy....do a 15 game chase....the streak calculator says you would have a virtual 0% chance of losing!!!!!! Ha Ha....only problem is what would be the starting bet?? Ha......any other book that offers this other than Sports Interaction?? They have -250 odds....ugh!!
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Hey neilsy....do a 15 game chase....the streak calculator says you would have a virtual 0% chance of losing!!!!!! Ha Ha....only problem is what would be the starting bet?? Ha......any other book that offers this other than Sports Interaction?? They have -250 odds....ugh!!
Can I ask what you mean by a 1234 labby line?? And is this for playing the HOME team to have an odd number only?? Or is it for the GAME total to have an odd number?
Quote Originally Posted by dlew2k:
ok, I broke it down to playing a "1234" labby line on each team as they played their home game..
Overall : using -220 odds. (labby) +65.25 units comparing this to flat betting all games +58 units
The home team with the least percentage of odd is:
NYR 47%
TB 58%
Det 56%
Col 46%
Home team with the best % of ODD
Nas 100%
Dal 94%
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Can I ask what you mean by a 1234 labby line?? And is this for playing the HOME team to have an odd number only?? Or is it for the GAME total to have an odd number?
Quote Originally Posted by dlew2k:
ok, I broke it down to playing a "1234" labby line on each team as they played their home game..
Overall : using -220 odds. (labby) +65.25 units comparing this to flat betting all games +58 units
The home team with the least percentage of odd is:
Sorry for any confusion there... Just back testing a little using a labby line of 1 2 3 4 for each team as they played a home game on the GAME TOTAL to end up ODD using -220 as the line.
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Quote Originally Posted by jolmscheid:
Sorry for any confusion there... Just back testing a little using a labby line of 1 2 3 4 for each team as they played a home game on the GAME TOTAL to end up ODD using -220 as the line.
For those that don't want the pressure and ultimately, the failure of this bombing (hopefully we somehow dodge the bullets like Matrix) an idea for you. Wait until Neilsy loses two (or pick them on your own) and then play the progression of three. As the streak calculator shows, you have a much better shot of avoiding the crash. You will have way less plays, but can take it into next season and continue or do whatever.
Me, I'm sticking with Neilsy on this 100 dollar dream.
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For those that don't want the pressure and ultimately, the failure of this bombing (hopefully we somehow dodge the bullets like Matrix) an idea for you. Wait until Neilsy loses two (or pick them on your own) and then play the progression of three. As the streak calculator shows, you have a much better shot of avoiding the crash. You will have way less plays, but can take it into next season and continue or do whatever.
Me, I'm sticking with Neilsy on this 100 dollar dream.
If I play this at SportsInteraction at -250 odds, how can I do this to make it profitable?? -250 is hefty compared to what neilsy gets at -220 ....thanks everyone!
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If I play this at SportsInteraction at -250 odds, how can I do this to make it profitable?? -250 is hefty compared to what neilsy gets at -220 ....thanks everyone!
it really doesnt change the progression at all, it just means you will not profit as quickly.. however sadly, if it doesnt work, you will go broke just as quickly !
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it really doesnt change the progression at all, it just means you will not profit as quickly.. however sadly, if it doesnt work, you will go broke just as quickly !
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