NHL dogs and low juice Faves

Pretty sure none of us like betting games with high juice on the faves but such is life in the NHL and with some of the systems here. I recently read of a betting strategy that made me think of a bit of a different angle to it.

I always thought that the odds makers gave too much value to a team playing at home in the NHL. Even mediocre teams can be favored by 160 or more at home. So with that in mind I've been tracking something new.

Basic premise is to look for underdogs that won their last game. If the underdog team is on the road and getting +110 to +140 it is a play on the underdog. An example would be Anaheim tonight. They won their last game and are +120 at Chicago. For the year these plays are hitting close to 50%. Recent games that fit this system are Nashville, LA and NJ last night. These plays went 2-1. Flat betting this would have been profitable if you played this all year. A labby line at 50% on dogs could be very profitable. Been around 100 plays so far this year.

The other play is to bet against these underdogs when at home and the line for the dog is +110 to +140. So you'd be betting on small to moderate favorites, but the record for this system is right around 70%. Recent plays on this system were SJ last night (fade Fla) and Philly on Tuesday (fade Buff). Both were winners.

Sorry I don't have the exact numbers for the year, I have those at home but I'm traveling right now. Will come back with them if need be in 10 days when I'm back home.

I think the fading system works well because you are paying a low cost on better teams because the oddsmakers seem to value the home team so much. I'm not betting these but tracking for now. Just thought I'd throw this out there and let everyone take a look. It's easy to go through each team record and see for yourself when they win and are a dog in a their next game between +110 and +140.

Not comfortable with Ana tonight at Chicago but wasn't too thrilled with LA at STL last night either and LA won. Record is a combined 4-1 since Tuesday. Let's track this and see how it plays out.

Play for tonight is Anaheim (yes this goes against the system pick for the Opening game Fave system).

Of course the day I start to post there is a loss, lol. For Saturday the systems plays would be:

Dog System - NYI

Fade System - no plays

Had a little down time so iI went back and ran the numbers for the year, throught 1/17.

Dog system: 44-49

Fade System: 31-9 (77.5%)

On the dog system even if you flat bet at an average of +120 odds, you'd have a small profit. At 47% a labby line would work great. Will check previous years when I have time.

You could do an aggressive labby, yes. A regular labby would work also.

Today's plays would be Boston as a dog play.

Glad I started posting at the start of a current 0-3 run. Nice timing on my part.

Monday there is a play on the Fade system. The play is STL (fade Det).

Patrick - I have not considered back to back games. I'll take a look and see how those games fared. Great thought.

Systemtrend - Yes fade Dogs at home (+110 to +140 range) when they won their last game. These plays are 31-9 on the season. STL (fade Det) is one of thos plays on today.

Bart - For my labby lines I use small numbers and start with 2 numbers of a 1/2 unit each, so the first game I'm betting 1 unit on the dog to win 1+ unit. Here is how my line looks after the 3 losses.

.5 - .5 - 1 - 1.5 - 2

So my next bet would be for 2.5 units on the dog. I run a seperate one for each system. If the line gets too long I can start a new line. For multiple games I'd split up the line. For example if there were 2 games today and I had the above line I'd probably go with something like this:

.5 - .5 - 1 - 2

.5 - .5 - 1.5

I'm not a labby line expert by any means and I can see where the agressive labby would play well here.

Hey finally a win, on the Fade system with STL.

Dog system: 44-51

Fade System: 32-9

Playing the dogs when they are on game 2 of a back to back actually have gone 10-5 this year. You'd think the opposite. For the fade system, the system is 5-1 fading the home dog on the second game of back to back. Both small sample size but it looks like back to back is a non consideration.

Quote Originally Posted by bDnews:

For some crazy reason I think you'll come up with a good twist to this to make it so much better.

For Tuesday -

Dog system is Minn.

Dog system: 44-51

Fade System: 32-9

For Thursday - Ott and Tor on the Dog system. Pitt (fade NYI) on the Fade system.

Dog system: 44-52

Fade System: 32-9

Maybe I have to change this to just the low juice fave system because dogs are getting crushed since I started posting.

Thursday results: Ott and Tor both lost on the dog system and Pitt wins on the Fade system.

Dog system: 44-54

Fade System: 33-9

Correct, SJ would be a play under the Low Juice Faves.