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NHL BOTTOM 5

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Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 833
Posted: #1
This is a bold 3 game chase playing against the worst 5 NHL teams using an aggressive Martingale.

Some notes:

The worst 5 teams will be re-chosen weekly using the NHL.com power rankings.

A bets are to win 1 unit
B bets are to win losses plus 2 units
C bets are to win losses plus 3 units

If a C bet loses and one of these worst 5 teams actually wins 3 in a row at -200/play, then we can expect to lose approx. 40 units.

If two bottom 5s play each other it is a no-play.

I would not recommend tailing this system
 
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Posted: #2
11/13/10

CURRENT BOTTOM 5

TOR
NJD
EDM
NYI
BUF


Today's plays:


(A) VAN @ TOR (VAN 7.75 to win 5.00)
(A) NYI @ LAK (LAK 13.00 to win 5.00)
(A) WAS @ BUF (WAS 7.00 to win 5.00)



 
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Posts: 833
Posted: #3
11/14/10

RECORD 2-0 WITH 1 PENDING
+2 UNITS

A) 2-1
B) 0-0
C) 0-0


CURRENT BOTTOM 5

TOR
NJD
EDM
NYI
BUF


Today's plays:


(A) EDM @ NYR (NYR -170 to win 1 UNIT)





 
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Posted: #4
11/15/10

RECORD 3-0 WITH 1 PENDING
+3 UNITS

A) 3-1
B) 0-0
C) 0-0


CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/13)

TOR
NJD
EDM
NYI
BUF


Today's plays:


(A) NJD @ BOS (BOS -190 to win 1 UNIT)
(B) VAN @ BUF (VAN -130 to win 4.4 UNITS)


 
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Posted: #5
Some notes:

I will be updating the BOTTOM 5 either today or tomorrow using multiple sources and recent team performance.

Also, when two BOTTOM 5 teams play each other this will not be a no-play as stated above. Instead, it will be a non-system play for 1 unit on the dog. Each team's chases will continue with their following games.





 
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Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 1094
Posted: #6
jonny, are you nuts?  how do you expect this system to profit?
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:

jonny, are you nuts?  how do you expect this system to profit?


I know. This is an insane chase. I'm just hoping to pick teams each week that won't go on a 3 game winning streak.


 
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Posts: 1094
Posted: #8

Okay, I read it wrong.  You're fading the bottom 3 teams, not playing them

That's much better.  I thought you were chasing the bottom 5 teams until they win!  My bad

Carry on

 
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Posted: #9
That's next week lol
 
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Posted: #10
11/16/10

RECORD 4-0 WITH 1 PENDING
+4 UNITS

A) 4-1
B) 0-1
C) 0-0


CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/16) *

TOR
EDM
NYI
CAR
CGY


Today's plays:


(A) NAS @ TOR (NAS even to win 1 UNIT)


* BUF has been dropped from the BOTTOM 5 this week but their chase still continues with a C play in WAS on Thursday. Basically, CGY and CAR have been added while NJ and BUF are out.

While BUF has been playing better, NJ still sucks and I will be looking to put them back in the bottom 5 after the TOR game later this week or maybe just add them as a 6th team since they will be facing some tough teams soon.


 
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Posts: 2256
Posted: #11
one or 2 series loss and all your profit is gone....labby it bro...profit slowly but surely....
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by butta01:

one or 2 series loss and all your profit is gone....labby it bro...profit slowly but surely....



I thought about that, but decided against it. Too time consuming and stressful. This way I have no loose ends. I either win the chase or don't. Additionally, The bottom 5 teams will be changing from week to week and I don't want to be trying to recover losses from an earlier chase involving a different team.

It is my belief that a Martingale really works best when the games are correlated. Betting against a poor team to win 3 in a row seems like an good enough situation to try the Martingale as the primary form of money mgmt.

You're right though, Labby is a safer way to go. Just trying to go balls out here.


 
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Posted: #13
11/17/10

RECORD 4-0 WITH 2 PENDING
+4 UNITS

A) 4-2
B) 0-1
C) 0-0


CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/16)

TOR
EDM
NYI
CAR
CGY


Today's plays:


(A) CHI @ EDM (CHI -150 to win 1 UNIT)
(A) TB @ NYI (TB -115 to win 1 UNIT)
(A) OTT @ CAR (OTT even to win 1 UNIT)
(A) PHX @ CAL (PHX +125 to win 1 UNIT)
(C) BUF @ WAS (WAS -190 to win 8.8 UNITS)



 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 10
Posted: #14
These bottom teams will win 3 in a row. You will get smoked once or twice - or more - using martingale on these teams all year long.

I have chased these bottom teams on the road with some success using martingale, with close calls and probably some losses if I remember correctly - C bets are no fun with martingale.  Labby it.

 The juice does get outa hand.
 
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Posted: #15
Thanks for the input, spatt02. You're absolutely right. One of these teams will win 3 in a row eventually if not tonight (BUF). Hopefully I can stay ahead of the game with my selections.

BOL

 
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Posted: #16
11/18/10

RECORD 8-0 WITH 2 PENDING
+10 UNITS

A) 7-3
B) 0-1
C) 1-0



As this project continues, I hope to make some tweaks and adjustments in order to make this a more promising system. One thing I don't like about it is being locked into system plays that look dicey. A great example of that is the NJ@TOR game tonight which is a "system" play. This system will be skipping that play.

This project will still chase 3 games at a time. And it will still chase 3 games in a row. However, it would probably be more successful if the 3 game sets were chosen more selectively. For this reason, the system will be skipping occasional games between wins. TOR will continue its chase in MTL later this week.


CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/16)

TOR
EDM
NYI
CAR
CGY


Today's plays:

NO PLAYS



 
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Posted: #17
11/18/10

RECORD 8-0 WITH 2 PENDING
+10 UNITS

A) 7-3
B) 0-1
C) 1-0

CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/16)

CAR (B game tonight @PIT)
EDM (3 game set starts tonight w/PHO)
CGY (3 game set starts tonight w/CHI)
TOR (B game @MTL on sat.)
NYI (3 game set starts sat. w/FLA)


GUIDE



Today's plays:


(A) PHO @ EDM (PHO -125 to win 1 UNIT)
(A) CHI @ CGY (CHI -120 to win 1 UNIT)
(B) CAR @ PIT (PIT -175 to win 3 UNITS)



 
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Posted: #18
11/19/10

CHASE RECORD 10-0 WITH 2 PENDING

+13 UNITS


A) 8-4
B) 1-1
C) 1-0

CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/20)


NYI (3 game set starts tonight w/FLA)
NJ (3 game set starts tonight @STL)
EDM (3 game set starts sunday @ANA)
TOR (B game @MTL tonight)
CGY (B game @DET sunday)



SCHEDULE



Today's plays:


(A) NYI @ FLA (FLA -110 to win 1 UNIT)
(A) NJ @ STL (STL -165 to win 1 UNIT)
(B) TOR @ MTL (MTL -165 to win 3 UNITS)


 
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Posted: #19
* repost to correct typos


11/20/10

CHASE RECORD 10-0 WITH 2 PENDING

+13 UNITS


A) 8-4
B) 1-1
C) 1-0

CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/20)


NYI (3 game set starts tonight w/FLA)
NJ (3 game set starts tonight @STL)
EDM (3 game set starts sunday @ANA)
TOR (B game @MTL tonight)
CGY (B game @DET sunday)



SCHEDULE



Today's plays:


(A) NYI @ FLA (FLA -110 to win 1 UNIT)
(A) NJ @ STL (STL -165 to win 1 UNIT)
(B) TOR @ MTL (MTL -165 to win 3 UNITS)


 
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Posted: #20
11/21/10

CHASE RECORD 13-0 WITH 2 PENDING

+17 UNITS


A) 10-4
B) 2-1
C) 1-0

CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/21)


NYI (3 game set starts tonight @ATL)
EDM (3 game set starts tonight @ANA)
CGY (B game tonight @DET)
NJ (3 game set starts monday w/WAS)
CAR (3 game set starts wednesday w/WAS)



SCHEDULE



Today's plays:


(A) NYI @ ATL (ATL -200 to win 1 UNIT)
(A) EDM @ ANA (ANA -200 to win 1 UNIT)
(B) CGY @ DET (DET -230 to win 3.2 UNITS)





 
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Posted: #21
should read 1 pending    
 
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Posted: #22
11/22/10

CHASE RECORD 15-0 WITH 1 PENDING

+20 UNITS


A) 11-5
B) 3-1
C) 1-0


NOTES:
Looks like slim pickins with the holidays coming. Our 5th team is to be determined later this week. For now, we'll just milk EDM and play a few select series on CGY, CAR and NJ.


CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/22)

NJ (3 game set starts tonight w/WAS)
EDM (B game tomorrow @PHO)
CAR (3 game set starts wednesday w/WAS)
CGY (3 game set starts friday @PHI)
# 5 TBD



SCHEDULE



Today's plays:


(A) WAS @ NJ (WAS -160 to win 1 UNIT)




 
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Posted: #23
11/23/10

CHASE RECORD 15-0 WITH 2 PENDING

+20 UNITS


A) 11-6
B) 3-1
C) 1-0




CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/22)
EDM (B game tonight @PHO)
NJ (B game wed w/CGY)
CAR (3 game set starts wed w/WAS)
CGY (3 game set starts friday @PHI)
# 5 TBD



Today's plays:


(A) EDM @ PHO (PHO -225 to win 4 UNITS)




 
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Posted: #24
11/24/10

CHASE RECORD 16-0 WITH 1 PENDING

+22 UNITS


A) 11-6
B) 4-1
C) 1-0



CURRENT BOTTOM 5 (UPDATED 11/24)

CAR (3 game set starts tonight w/WAS)
NYI (3 game set starts tonight w/CLB)
NJ (B game tonight w/CGY)
EDM (3 game set starts thurs w/COL)
CGY (3 game set starts friday @PHI)



Today's plays:


(A) WAS @ CAR (WAS -140 to win 1 UNIT)
(A) CLB @ NYI (CLB -135 to win 1 UNIT)
(B) CGY @ NJ (CGY +105 to win 3.6 UNITS)



 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 157
Posted: #25

Also, when two BOTTOM 5 teams play each other this will not be a no-play as stated above. Instead, it will be a non-system play for 1 unit on the dog. Each team's chases will continue with their following games.

 

what happened to this rule with NJ vs Calgary??

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