NFL Week 5 - YPPT Method

Last Week: 6-8 (43%) SU, 3-11 (21%) ATS
YTD (excludes Weeks 1 and 2): 17-13 (57%) SU, 13-17 (43%) ATS

Here are this weeks games:
DENVER        11     BALTIMORE      23
JACKSONVILLE  20     BUFFALO        22
KANSAS CITY   17     INDIANAPOLIS   29
ST LOUIS      14     DETROIT        26
ATLANTA       19     CLEVELAND      17
TAMPA BAY     13     CINCINNATI     27
CHICAGO       16     CAROLINA       12
GREEN BAY     18     WASHINGTON     19
NY GIANTS     21     HOUSTON        33
NEW ORLEANS   21     ARIZONA        23
SAN DIEGO     32     OAKLAND        20
TENNESSEE     16     DALLAS         16*
PHILADELPHIA  22     SAN FRANCISCO  22*
MINNESOTA      8     NY JETS        17

*-Slight decimal point advantage for these teams.

bol....good for teasers....hitting some 10 and 13 points teasers....

Is YPPT...Yards per point total? ...and how do you then apply that # to a win prediction?

I have looked also at the YPP (yard per point) offensively for the last 3 games for all 2010 NFL teams this season.  I have excluded the Total Season Stats due to it being a meaningless Pre-Season Games...

Offensive YPP= offensive yards last 3 games
                        Total Points scored last 3 games

Now get the Defensive Total Yards Allowed (DTYA)  for the last 3 games...for each team...
.....if you take Team #1 DTYA & divide by Team #2 YPP you would get the "projected " score for the game...

Ok stay with me...this week for example:

Jacksonville plays @ Buffalo

                                last 3 month YPP      Def Yards allowed

Jacksonville                       18.5                          418.7
Buffalo                               15.4                          411.7

so divide Jacksonvilles 418.7 by Buff 15.4 YPP= 27.2
then Buff 411.7 by Jac 18.5 = 22

...so the "predicted score " for this game is
Buffalo 27 Jacksonville 22

...also since Buffalo has the Home Field Advantage of 3 pts....

Buffalo 30-22

the Vegas line is Buffalo -1 o/u 40.5

so the pick would be Buffalo -1 & OVER 40.5


....I am still working on these...

So Biggest variances for Sunday...

OVER/UNDER...
NYG/Houston  (14.5)..........   Take UNDER 47.5
Jac/Buff  (11.5) ................... Take OVER 40.5
KC/Indy (8.5) ...................... Take OVER 45.5
GB/Wash (7.5) ................... Take OVER 45.5
Chi/Caro (7) ........................ Take OVER 33
NO/Ari (7) ...........................Take OVER 45
SD/Oak (7) ........................ Take UNDER 45

Spread...
Tennessee (13) ...... Take Tenn +7
GB (10.5)..............  Take GB -2.5
Philly (9)...............  Take Philly +3
MNF...NYJ (9).......  Take NYJ -4
Chi (8.5)...............  Take Chi +2.5
Ari (8.5)................  Take Ari +6.5

Lets see how it tests out this week before playing any...

bol....

we will see...