NFL Quarters Chase

I have used this strategy with a lot of success for NBA.  Was recently asked about trying this for NFL.  I have looked at this and it appears to be very favorable playing on home teams, although I have much less data than I do for nba as I am looking at it manually here on covers.  I am currently working on creating a spreadsheet based on last years results so we can start attacking this come the first game of the season.

Premise is pretty simple:

Play on a home team to win at least one quarter in a 4 qtr chase format.  I will run this using an aggressive labouchere money management.

Will start work on entering the scores by quarter from last year into excel.  If anyone would like to help it would be greatly appreciated as it is time consuming and there is not much time left before week 1.

I did not play nfl last season, what books have inrunning quarter plays for nfl?  I have been asked by many to keep my plays for the nba quarter chase plays off the public forum and may consider doing the same with this.... That being said I will share them with anyone that is interested via email (if it comes to that, we will see)

Main questions are:

what books have inrunning nfl quarters bets

is anyone willing to help in forming the database

thanks

rizz

Rizz

Please add me to your email list for the NFL and NBA games.

I would be willing to help with the spreadsheet. Are you going to enter it by week? If so, what week do you want me to start with? If you have started, send me a copy so I can follow the same format.

Just looked at week 17 from last year...

16 games and based on my guess of the line by qt:

• 8 covered the first quarter (8-8)
• 5 covered the second quarter (5-3)
• 1 covered the third quarter (1-2)
• 2 covered the fourth quarter (2-0)

So from a W-L perspective, that is 16-13 for that week.

I'll work backwords tonight on a few more weeks and put it in spreadsheet tomorrow.

If the line is 14.5, and the first quarter ends 3-3. What do you think the 2nd quarter line is? Is a 7-3 2nd quarter going to be enough to cover?

Scott,

If the line was +1, it would likely be a pick em for the quarter.  If we pushed the first quarter we would end the chase.  In your previous post as to when the home team won a quarter.  We would be 16-0 that week playing on all home teams.  PM me your email and I will let you know what I need.  I want to go team by team and look quarter by quarter the results when they are at home.  You would just need to enter the score for home and away by quarter.  I will then take the numbers to find the team that wins certain quarters what percentage of the time, total percentage of quarters won, and avg margin of victory per quarter.  The goal is to play on the best home teams.  The lines seem to be more forgiving for NFL based on what I saw tonight.  The vikings lost the first quarter by 7.  They were only -0.5 for the second quarter which I played and won.  This is a chase system not a straight up quarter plays.  My goal is to place the teams in tiers and play ON top tier teams when they are playing lower tiered teams.

Anyone interested in helping with the database please PM me your email address.  I will give everyone a division in the NFL.  We will simply be entering the date of that teams home games last year, the opponent, spread, over/under, and each teams score by quarter.  All the info is on covers you just have to click game by game to see the scores by quarter.  I have already done the AFC east this evening in an hour or so.  Shouldn't take us long if we work together.

I just accepted your friend request.  Lets do this!

hey Rizz,

New to this forum.  like what you did in mlb.  I did well in 3 game home chase this mlb season.  but, I dont know baseball.  Seems like NFL & NBA maybe more predictable in winning a qtr.   

Okay guys we are making progress.  Here is what we have so far:

NFC West - Bettor2Win

NFC South - ldusing

NFC North -  Neilsy25 (if this is okay with you)

Still need volunteers for NFC EAST, AFC WEST, AFC SOUTH

I just need an excel spreadsheet with every game in that divisions home games from last regular season with the columns of:

Date, Opponent, Home spread, o/u, Home q1,2,3,4 and Away 1,2,3,4

I will crunch all the numbers and put them into tiers.  I will pull the data for the away teams off of this data also

Onlinesport you get NFC EAST

I finished AFC WEST and NORTH today, will do AFC SOUTH tomorrow

thanks

sent you a pm with my email