*Note subject to change - but intial picks - and as i mentioned i'm only going to post Best Picks and 10 pt Margin plays
Best Picks
TB-3 MIA-3 SF-5
*NYJ-3 *MIN: no line yet
Jets and MIN are unofficial - may scratch them
10 pt Margin plays
ARI-4 *BAL-3 *SF-5
According to the numbers - ARI is the only official play - but they looked downright terrible last week - just disgusting. I made BAL and SF unofficial for now because they were close - like 1-2 points off.
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Week 6
*Note subject to change - but intial picks - and as i mentioned i'm only going to post Best Picks and 10 pt Margin plays
Best Picks
TB-3 MIA-3 SF-5
*NYJ-3 *MIN: no line yet
Jets and MIN are unofficial - may scratch them
10 pt Margin plays
ARI-4 *BAL-3 *SF-5
According to the numbers - ARI is the only official play - but they looked downright terrible last week - just disgusting. I made BAL and SF unofficial for now because they were close - like 1-2 points off.
Danrules - yeah - you're right - not sure how I missed ATL, maybe because I don't like them as a play this weekend - I don't think they will cover 9.5, yes the NFL pt system says they will cover, but some other models I using says they won't.
For the sake of tracking I'll include them
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Danrules - yeah - you're right - not sure how I missed ATL, maybe because I don't like them as a play this weekend - I don't think they will cover 9.5, yes the NFL pt system says they will cover, but some other models I using says they won't.
Danrules - yeah - you're right - not sure how I missed ATL, maybe because I don't like them as a play this weekend - I don't think they will cover 9.5, yes the NFL pt system says they will cover, but some other models I using says they won't.
For the sake of tracking I'll include them
Very good, wasn't sure if I missed something or not. Good luck!
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:
Danrules - yeah - you're right - not sure how I missed ATL, maybe because I don't like them as a play this weekend - I don't think they will cover 9.5, yes the NFL pt system says they will cover, but some other models I using says they won't.
For the sake of tracking I'll include them
Very good, wasn't sure if I missed something or not. Good luck!
So not a terrible day for the BEST PICKS - using the consensus of all models - techincially it went 1-1-1, and that's the way i will record it, but if you bought the hook on the MIA game, and took the Jets like I did - you would have went 3-1
The 10 PT PLAYS are a different story - going 0-4 - ugh.....I will continue to track them - but as mentioned filters are needed, even using the 10 pts instead of 5 - I think it will prove a 50-50 model when all is said and done without additional inputs.
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Week 6 - Results
Best Picks
TB-3 (WIN) MIA-3 (PUSH) SF-5 (LOSS)
*NYJ-3 (WIN)
Jets are unofficial
10 pt Margin plays
ARI-4 (LOSS) ATL-9.5 (LOSS)
*BAL-3 (LOSS) *SF-5 (LOSS)
So not a terrible day for the BEST PICKS - using the consensus of all models - techincially it went 1-1-1, and that's the way i will record it, but if you bought the hook on the MIA game, and took the Jets like I did - you would have went 3-1
The 10 PT PLAYS are a different story - going 0-4 - ugh.....I will continue to track them - but as mentioned filters are needed, even using the 10 pts instead of 5 - I think it will prove a 50-50 model when all is said and done without additional inputs.
So I added calculating RPI to the spreadhseet - you can download the latest version here. it essentially does all the calculations for you and will update the data needed for the calcs when you click the "UPDATE" button - you only need to click that button once a week though - basically every tuesday after the games.
Going to keep an eye on the RPI EDGE and see if can be used as a filter.
If you are unfamiliar with RPI or how to caluclate it - check out the 2 articles below
Note that I am factoring in home / road wins and losses in my calculations - other methods don't but I figure HF adv in the NFL is important enough to weight the calc.
So I added calculating RPI to the spreadhseet - you can download the latest version here. it essentially does all the calculations for you and will update the data needed for the calcs when you click the "UPDATE" button - you only need to click that button once a week though - basically every tuesday after the games.
Going to keep an eye on the RPI EDGE and see if can be used as a filter.
If you are unfamiliar with RPI or how to caluclate it - check out the 2 articles below
Note that I am factoring in home / road wins and losses in my calculations - other methods don't but I figure HF adv in the NFL is important enough to weight the calc.
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