NFL & NCAAF True YPPT & HFA System & Filters

.....a continuation from New YPPT Method , credit given to roughshod31.

What this system does is break down each team based on season statistics, Sagarin Ratings, and Sagarin Strength of Schedule broken down into projected box scores for each weekly matchup. I've had the original formula completely retooled and have compiled data where we can filter out whether to fade the formula or play the formula.

Plays are based on the dime system, with the stronger plays being graded higher, whereas a regular system play would be graded lower, all based on the filters strength. Right now we're hitting at a 64% rate and are +50.5 dimes since I've been releasing the picks. All plays are documented on my site, as well as in the previous thread listed.

On the site, actionreverse.com, there are weekly spreadsheets available where you can view all of these statistics and projected box scores and are up for free download. Even if you do not follow the system plays, these spreadsheets will be useful as just another factor in handicapping your own games.

thank you friend. excellent work

Out of curiosity I have been trying to formulate something similar like this for the NHL
Just don't know how to put the parameters together but something is itching me that there could be some gold in them darn hills

Using some or all of the below:
Sagarin ratings
RPI
Foxfeed ratings
Or whatever else...........

Just show me the door.......
I'll walk through it...........

Ok, I'm not too familiar with how to break down a hockey box score since most of my work revolves around football but I'll lay out some things that should help.

For starters, say we have a matchup of Team A vs. Team B:

• Find a data set (either full season statistics, or last (x amount of games) statistics for Team A's Offense, Defense, Goaltending, Penalties, etc.. (whatever goes into a box score of hockey).
• Break all of this down into a per game average, so you come up with a box score for Team A.
• Do the same for Team B now.

You want to basically have 4 columns of data, Team A Offense & Defense, vs. Team B Offense & Defense, all per game statistics. Create another 2 columns separate, Team A & Team B.
Average Team A Offense & Team B Defense together and compile Team A's box score in 1 of those 2 columns. Do the same for Team B Offense vs. Team A Defense and compile Team B's box score in the 2nd column.

Take each teams Sagarin Rating, RPI Rating, w/e you choose to you use, add them together, divide them by 2. ie. Team A Rating 4.5, Team B Rating 5.5, for an average rating of 5. Divide Team A's rating (4.5) by the average rating (5) for a factor of 0.9. Do the same for Team B, (5.5/5) for a factor of 1.1.

Using the 2 columns of projected box score data, you multiply Team A's stats by their factor (0.9) and do the same for Team B (1.1).

This basically means, the better teams stats are going to be inflated, and the worse of the two deflated, but can hopefully project an outcome of the matchup at hand.

Now you can use any statistics with this, but the base is to multiply these statistics by their Rating, RPI, w/e factors, and compile a projected score doing this.

What I've done, was keep an archive of every weeks projected results, as well as every weeks actual results, and just filter the results until I find what wins the most. For instance, top tier teams vs. bottom tier teams, maybe the formula projects a top tier team to cover the puckline vs bottom tier teams most of the time, but the actual results are the bottom tier team covering the puckline more often, this would result in you fading the system, or staying away. Maybe it predicts most accurate when two similar teams are playing, with the favorite at home, or the road, etc..

Sorry for the long post, hope it helps, if you can't understand I can try and dip my fingers into the NHL to see what I can come up with for a visual sample.

..................... - great set up too with your site
Its cool man - no sweat
Appreciate it for the reply - detailed and concise
Will definitely look into this further, thanks a lot



2 questions................

What I've done, was keep an archive of every weeks projected results, as well as every weeks actual results, and just filter the results until I find what wins the most. For instance, top tier teams vs. bottom tier teams, maybe the formula projects a top tier team to cover the puckline vs bottom tier teams most of the time, but the actual results are the bottom tier team covering the puckline more often, this would result in you fading the system, or staying away. Maybe it predicts most accurate when two similar teams are playing, with the favorite at home, or the road, etc..

1)   Would you have an idea as a gauge offhand  (not a big deal) as a baseline qualifying  #  (filter wise)  to use a  play for a team
2)   Going about 2 similar teams - would it make sense to seek value in the dog?



This reminds me............
Over this past MLB season the notion of sabremetrics came into play as a tool to be utilized with other capping methods for picks
That was very complicated to get down for me but yet satisfying to apply to formulating with in a style of capping

Now for those who know.............
A lot about that thread is controversial but yielding too
Point is that I am thankful for new these angles towards capping games

Damn't why didn't like math more in highschool
Never knew all this arithmetic and statistics with formulas could be so fun

In my opinion......... In sports we can formulate calculations the best we can no matter how simple or complicated to beat the odds but one factor that we cannot calculate in is heart of the dog
Meaning on any given day how dogs just outplay the favs or vise versa and buck all the results from our calculations with in these formulas
But that's part of he game



......................

Most of my NFL and NCAAF plays are dogs, because there's always a huge advantage playing the right dogs in the right scenarios, compared to playing a favorite in the same scenario. So yes, it would make sense to seek value in dogs whenever possible. My favorite, being away dogs, (not sure how this applies in hockey)

A baseline qualifying #, there's really no set amount of data or win % to consider a game a play, but I like to see a filter that's produced at least 65% win ratio at the very minimum in order to even consider the play a filtered play.

Anyway, figured I'd help out since most of my work for NFL and NCAAF is done, so I compiled a sample NHL Sheet for you to use, this should be helpful. It's basic, but, should help out a lot in what you're trying to accomplish.

To use it, just copy and paste the rows of data from the Team Statistics page and the Goalie statistics page in the right spots on the Matchup Page, and it will output a result for you. Also copy and paste the Ratings & S.O.S. for each team from that sheet too. Away teams in the top line, Home teams on the bottom.

Here's the sheet: NHL Sheet

In my opinion......... In sports we can formulate calculations the best we can no matter how simple or complicated to beat the odds but one factor that we cannot calculate in is heart of the dog
Meaning on any given day how dogs just outplay the favs or vise versa and buck all the results from our calculations with in these formulas


My bad.........
Didn't come off as humbly as I thought
Better put........... - is that from where I'm sitting a big factor with in the NHL and NFL is that the weaker team on paper can outwork / out hustle the better team to win the game and that's why the game isn't played on paper

Hey Action, Got Any Plays For 12/10 In NHL?

A baseline qualifying #, there's really no set amount of data or win % to consider a game a play, but I like to see a filter that's produced at least 65% win ratio at the very minimum in order to even consider the play a filtered play.

......................
Now let's take this baby out on a test drive
I'm sure a filter will come out in the wash


jayjay81................
I don't know if AR will posting NHL plays
My question to him originally was if there was anything for the NHL similar out there to the NFL & NCAAFB system he is on from others
Fish for a man - feed him for a day...........
Teach a man how to fish -  you feed him for a lifetime..........
My point is that he laid out how to calculate the plays for tomorrow and afterwards
The rest is up to us
....................

 

You Know What MontanaMax, Nobody Has Ever Put It That Way On These Forums.  The Best Way To Catch Fish Is To Learn And Study.  Plus Someone Has Already Posted Up Some System Plays That Last Til The NHL Season Is Over.

Correct, I've been receiving requests now for NHL and NBA versions, both of which I will try to create full spreadsheets in the future for, but for now I figured I'd create a basic NHL sheet to use. The sheet actually doesn't calculate any strength of schedule, but you can easily do that on your own if you have working knowledge of Excel. Also, the stats used are from hockey-reference, so that should make it a lot easier when you want to continue to update the spreadsheet for your own use. Just copy and "Paste Special" into the Excel Sheet. The section with Shots, etc. is taken straight from Covers.

Make sure when all is said and done the tables are all sorted alphabetically as to make sure they line up with each other when you copy and paste into the Matchup Page.

Any other questions you might have just ask and I'll be glad to help. GL with the sheet and let me know how you guys use it and make out with it. Another point of reference is you can get all the scores from hockey-reference also in a nice table if you want to backtrack data from here on out with your results.

jayjay81................
.....................



@#$%^&* !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Looks like I'll be doing my math the oldschool way AR
Something is up with my computer and I cannot access exell til further notice when I can attack that problem
Computers are not my forte
Harder the fight.......... - Sweeter the victory..............

Easy outright winner tonight in Cleveland.

Cleveland 13
Pittsburgh 6

+10 Dimes on the play.

.....................

 

See Action, This Is Where I'm Confused.  My Projected Score Said The Steelers Would Win 26 to 12.  So Explain To Me How You Came Out A Winner.

Oh Yeah Action, Where Do You Get The % At?  Like How Do You Know It Was 60% Winning Rate?

Another winner yesterday, +15 more dimes.

Will be back later with the NFL plays. Around 12-1230pm.

Not bad calls
Really liking that Oak too myself

- man.................
.................

Gonna tail the NYG game.  Cant bet against my Skins tho. 

BoL

Projected Win Ratio held true, 2-1, +9 dimes.
However, the Giants just didn't have an answer for DeSean Jackson tonight. -22 Dimes

Overall -13 Dimes for the day.