it is an NFL Chase from the classic book Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. It is based on the defending champions, this year that is Tampa Bay. Not a chase, every bet is straight-up
First 6 weeks of the season bet against the Champs ATS
First 6 weeks of the season bet against the champs next opponent ATS
Weeks 2 - 6 bet against the Champs previous opponent ATS
I have done it twice:
2018 Philadelphia
10 - 7
58.8%
2019 New England
10 - 6
62.5%
Why the different amount of games? Some bets pushed. The book also does some back testing:
1985 - 2008
Against Champs first 6 weeks
71 - 58 - 1
Against Champs next opponent
64 - 53 - 5
Against Champs previous opponent
56 - 45 - 1
Not too late to jump in this year. System is currently up
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
it is an NFL Chase from the classic book Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. It is based on the defending champions, this year that is Tampa Bay. Not a chase, every bet is straight-up
First 6 weeks of the season bet against the Champs ATS
First 6 weeks of the season bet against the champs next opponent ATS
Weeks 2 - 6 bet against the Champs previous opponent ATS
I have done it twice:
2018 Philadelphia
10 - 7
58.8%
2019 New England
10 - 6
62.5%
Why the different amount of games? Some bets pushed. The book also does some back testing:
1985 - 2008
Against Champs first 6 weeks
71 - 58 - 1
Against Champs next opponent
64 - 53 - 5
Against Champs previous opponent
56 - 45 - 1
Not too late to jump in this year. System is currently up
3 - 0 last weekend. To those who haven't read "Sharp Sports Betting" by Stanford Wong (not believed to be his real name) I recommend it. Along with "Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting" by King Yao (also not believed to be his real name - I make no judgements, I go by Surfer2 myself) I obtained a lot of useful information. Wong's idea behind his System is that during the first six weeks of the season teams will be extra motivated to play the defending Super Bowl Champion. This, along with the idea that the Champs are:
1) A bit busy patting themselves on the back
2) Experienced enough to "turn it on" later in the season
3) Involved in a lot of close, hard-fought games (against the Champs almost always means taking points)
The other two bets are based on the psychology that their next opponent is looking ahead to face them, and, their previous opponent often has a letdown after their mini Super Bowl.
Here are the current stats and bets for next week, number 5.
Champs - Tampa Bay 8 - 3 ??20.96
Next Opponent 4 - 0 ??18.10 ?Phi Car -4 b5 w4.55???
The font went small when I copied and pasted, I am not sure why.
***Special Bonus***
MLB Playoffs Home Underdogs
I have done this a few times and, as I recall, usually made a profit.
Boston was +105 when I placed my bet. I see they are now +108 on Bovada. Let's do a mini-chase
Bos
b5 w5.50???
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
0
3 - 0 last weekend. To those who haven't read "Sharp Sports Betting" by Stanford Wong (not believed to be his real name) I recommend it. Along with "Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting" by King Yao (also not believed to be his real name - I make no judgements, I go by Surfer2 myself) I obtained a lot of useful information. Wong's idea behind his System is that during the first six weeks of the season teams will be extra motivated to play the defending Super Bowl Champion. This, along with the idea that the Champs are:
1) A bit busy patting themselves on the back
2) Experienced enough to "turn it on" later in the season
3) Involved in a lot of close, hard-fought games (against the Champs almost always means taking points)
The other two bets are based on the psychology that their next opponent is looking ahead to face them, and, their previous opponent often has a letdown after their mini Super Bowl.
Here are the current stats and bets for next week, number 5.
Champs - Tampa Bay 8 - 3 ??20.96
Next Opponent 4 - 0 ??18.10 ?Phi Car -4 b5 w4.55???
I skimmed Chapter 17 myself. He also documents betting the over on the Champs for the first 6 weeks. I hadn't recalled betting on the over. The over was 73 - 58 - 1 from 1985 - 2008.
***MLB Playoffs ***
Home Underdogs
2 - 0
$10.60
SF wins at home 4 - 0. No games today. There could be a few more. If StL had beaten LA, they likely would have been Underdogs for their home games. I'm thinking the winner of Atl/Mil could wind up underdogs at home against the winner of SF/LA
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
1
@BlueStar57
I skimmed Chapter 17 myself. He also documents betting the over on the Champs for the first 6 weeks. I hadn't recalled betting on the over. The over was 73 - 58 - 1 from 1985 - 2008.
***MLB Playoffs ***
Home Underdogs
2 - 0
$10.60
SF wins at home 4 - 0. No games today. There could be a few more. If StL had beaten LA, they likely would have been Underdogs for their home games. I'm thinking the winner of Atl/Mil could wind up underdogs at home against the winner of SF/LA
On Thursday, Phi lost by 6 to TB but was a 7 point underdog, and, therefore covered. Betting ATS against TB went 4 - 2 the first six weeks while betting against them SU would have gone 1 - 5. I will wrap up the Champs Betting System after the weekend.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
0
***MLB Playoffs ***
Home Underdogs
2 - 0
$10.60
Atl
b5 w5.40
NFL -
On Thursday, Phi lost by 6 to TB but was a 7 point underdog, and, therefore covered. Betting ATS against TB went 4 - 2 the first six weeks while betting against them SU would have gone 1 - 5. I will wrap up the Champs Betting System after the weekend.
Atl walks it off in the bottom of the 9th. One idea I had for the MLB Playoffs is an endless chase of home underdogs. In other words, if this season ends with a loss, put it on the shelf (or hard-drive, or cloud) and pick it up next year.
Another possible endless chase is World Cup Qualifying. Brazil and Argentina aren't ever going to miss that thing. Split each team into 2 chases - Home and Road. Just be sure to pay attention to details such as if one the squads has already qualified for the Cup.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
0
***MLB Playoffs***
Home Underdogs
3 - 0
$16.00
Atl walks it off in the bottom of the 9th. One idea I had for the MLB Playoffs is an endless chase of home underdogs. In other words, if this season ends with a loss, put it on the shelf (or hard-drive, or cloud) and pick it up next year.
Another possible endless chase is World Cup Qualifying. Brazil and Argentina aren't ever going to miss that thing. Split each team into 2 chases - Home and Road. Just be sure to pay attention to details such as if one the squads has already qualified for the Cup.
The System designed by Stanford Wong did excellent this year, ending Week 6 with a perfect 3 - 0. Notice the difference in $ between going 5 - 1 and 4 - 2. Some of that is Bovada. It pays to line shop. I am stuck at Bovada, however, it is known for being safe and I can bet on almost everything, so I use it. Although I might take a closer look at Pinnacle after this....
@Blue Star
Same old story with baseball, either chasing with a negative Moneyline or needing 2 teams to come through. I have had some success chasing a positive Moneyline with Division Home Dogs, which brings up another aspect of baseball, the daily grind of the long season. I am moving my current MLB Playoffs to another thread.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
0
Champs - Tampa Bay 11 - 5 $34.56
Next Opponent 5 - 1 $17.90
Tampa Bay 4 - 2 $8.46
Previous Opponent 4 - 2 $8.20
The System designed by Stanford Wong did excellent this year, ending Week 6 with a perfect 3 - 0. Notice the difference in $ between going 5 - 1 and 4 - 2. Some of that is Bovada. It pays to line shop. I am stuck at Bovada, however, it is known for being safe and I can bet on almost everything, so I use it. Although I might take a closer look at Pinnacle after this....
@Blue Star
Same old story with baseball, either chasing with a negative Moneyline or needing 2 teams to come through. I have had some success chasing a positive Moneyline with Division Home Dogs, which brings up another aspect of baseball, the daily grind of the long season. I am moving my current MLB Playoffs to another thread.
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