New Strategy

Smitler, my input from your SBR Chasing both ways and not skipping the 1st game discussion.

If v1 wins at +100 you are up 100. Stop there, +100 on v1

Since V1 won, we know V2 lost. Let's say at -125, so you are down -125 on v2. Next you chase v2 and say game 2 wins (assuming you bet enough to cover game 1 loss and win 100).

Now you are up +100 on V2. So you netted +200 total between V1 and V2..

NOW, if you waited to see the outcome of both V1 and V2 game 1's, you are always gonna chase the version that loses. But, you did not pick up the unit on the version that won. So, now you are only playing to pick up 1 unit

Whereas, if you started at game 1's, you are always gonna win the 1st game one one version and chase to win the loser, netting 2 units.

So, skipping the 1st games only yields 1 unit, where betting both game one's and chasing would net 2 units.

Does that make sense/help Smitler?

Just posted a response over there that adds to what you are saying here.  Nole I think we had this same discussion on the AJM a while back.

The big difference is they are saying don't play both and double your unit value on the second chase (game 1 loser) so you can win the same amount as playing both.  That logic does not hold up from a risk standpoint.  You can lose that chase and still not have anything to show for it cause you didn't play and win the other.
If you play both sides you are guaranteed to win one of them.  So now you risk 1 chase loss as usual, minus the game 1 winner unit value.

I love this discussion in the morning when my brain is fresh.  I may be completely off but I guess that's how I process it.

Now to complicate this even further you gain a little value by shopping for lines.
For example yesterday the betus line for min/tbr was -105-Y/-125-N.  The bookmaker line for that game was -100-Y/-130-N.  So you place your N bet at betus and your Y bet at bookmaker.

Playing both ways is the way to go on first game. Especially if you are a double tap player.

Friday, Aug 6, 2010, 15 Games
Version 1.0 Dogs
Single-tap (go for 1 win) _________________ chase record: 45-3 (55.50 units won) (25 units lost)
Double-tap (go for 2nd win if 3 games remain) chase record: 27-2 (34.30 units won) (22 units lost)
Straight record: 99-89 (52%) since June 19.

Times listed are EDT, Betus lines, subject to change
Past performance does not guarantee future results
12:20_Game_1_cin/chc_Y_+105_
19:00_Game_2_stl/fla__Y_+140_
20:00_Game_3_hou/mil_Y_+105_
21:40_Game_4_sdp/arz_N_-110_No play so far
22:00_Game_5_tex/oak_Y_+145_

Version 1.1 AL and NL separate playing every time slot
NL
12:20_cin/chc__y_+105_
19:00_stl/fla___y_+140_
20:00_hou/mil__y_+105_
21:30_sdp/arz__n_-115_no play
22:00_was/lad__y_+135_
AL
19:00_laa/det__y_+130_
22:00_tex/oak__y_+145_
Version 2.0 Favorites
12:20_Game_1_cin/chc_N_-130_
19:00_Game_2_stl/fla__N_-170_
20:00_Game_3_hou/mil_N_-135_
21:40_Game_4_sdp/arz_Y_-120_
22:00_Game_5_tex/oak_N_-175_

Version 2.1 AL and NL separate playing every time slot
NL
12:20_cin/chc__n_-130_
19:00_stl/fla___n_-170_
20:00_hou/mil__n_-135_
21:30_sdp/arz__y_-120_
22:00_was/lad__n_-165_

AL
19:00_laa/det__n_-160_
22:00_tex/oak__n_-175_

Experiment, Day 1: +4.45 units Version 1.0, 1.1, 2.0, and 2.1 all winners.
Experiment, Day 2:
1.0_1_cin/chc_Y_+105_betus
1.1_1_same
2.0_1_cin/chc_N_-120_bmakr
2.1_1_same

I will have to categorize further to track 1.0, NL=1.1, AL=1.2 and
2.0, NL=2.1, AL=2.2

This is way confusing.

Wish posts could be edited so I don't have to do a new post everytime.  Covers please add feature.
Experiment, Day 2:
1.0_1_cin/chc_Y_+105_betus_chase continues
1.0_2_stl/fla__Y_+140_

1.1_1_cin/chc_Y_+105_betus_chase continues
1.1_2_stl/fla__Y_+140_

1.2_1_laa/det_Y_+130_
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2.0_1_cin/chc_N_-120_bmakr_+1.0 unit_complete

2.1_1_cin/chc_N_-120_bmakr_+1.0 unit_complete

2.2_1_laa/det_N_-160_

better line:
2.2_1_laa/det_N_-145_bmakr

playing your system betting both ways but i think w. a twist.

played cin/chi both ways. won on the -no, so will not play any more -no for the night. will continue the chase on the +yes until win and play no more for the night. If it works out will be up 200.00 for the night!!!

HOPE THIS MAKES SINCE

Have played 6 days and up 600.00. Just trying to win 100.00 a day. Now trying to win 200.00 a day. Had a bank roll of 2,000 to start with. Up to 2,600 and hoping to double in 7 days or less!!!

I know i cant double up but hoping for 1400 in 7 days. Thats what i meant to say.

Smitler, why did you leave out the 7:35 game: Atl/SFG +135?

Might be that the Game 1 with stl/fla is a 710 and the atl game is a 735, so the start times are too close together. Especially if your book, like betus, closes the window 5 minutes before the star time. If the 1st game's 1st inning is a long one, or does not start exactly at 710, the chance to get in that second bet is tight.

Smitty, I am going AJM on the LAA, SEA, and MIL games tonight. 1st time I am really doing this seriously after coming to a better understanding of betting both ways after thinking about the 1st inning chase discussion.

I am rolling the dice on the phillies game and just going JM. They are HOT right now and playing at home, so I just feel super confident on them winning tonight and do not want to waste the AJM bet on the sorry ass Muts. That said, this game will probably lose b/c it is looks like the easiest pick of the 4. I hate when I have supreme confidence in a pick, b/c it always seems to bite me in the arse.

See you guys later tonight.

19:30_sfo/atl_is a play_ I didn't notice the different start time.

All hot streaks come to an end sometime.  Lets hope for a nice middle.

Hey, Nole, can you tell me what AJM is? Sorry, if that's a dumb ?
Thanks and BOL!

Day 1 of your system playing both sides on first game and chasing looser on game one. Up 200.00 for the day and i am done for the night!!!!


THANK YOU SMITLER!!!!!!!!!!

Its Anti-JM (John Morrison system). So if the team to bet on with JM is Philadelphia on the ML, then the AJM would be the Mets on the +1.5 Run Line.

My book has SFO/ATL as a 750 start. That puts it too close to the 8pm game, no?

Yahoo sports has it as a 735. WTF?

lots of yes winners at 19:00!!! Cashing in!! Thanks Smitler! Long live the BS system!!!

$

sfo/atl is an official DT.  If the delay lasts to long the system will move on to hou/mil as game 1 of DT (no martingale).

Thanks Nole!  never would have figured that one out.  and thanks for sharing your picks. BOLTA 

So Nole, I read about the JM system.  If you are playing the AJM on Millw, then that's not AJM but JM because Millw was swept by Houston.  Isn't that right?

Does anyone know how the JM sysem did so far this season in MLB?  There is a great write-up on it here on Covers.

Both JM and AJM suck this year.
anti-JM thread has the record. I forgot to post today's plays

thanks Smittler!
FYI: Phil, Ana,Seattle, Arizona and Millw would qualify for JM picks today.  These are the only ones I checked for this evening's games.