New Strategy

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That White Sox game saved me...PHEWWW...I might just stay away from the rest for the day...GL guys

whose in for the double tap?

Re-load and be ready for the second wave.

im ready.....

double tap its  in the fkn bank.....

Still rockn and rolln eh Smitler...wish I had been home on the double tap but home all day tomorrow...kill the books again tomorrow

NL
col/fla_y_+140
hou/chc_y_+110
nym/arz_n_-105 (optional)
sfo/lad_y_+110

AL
tex/det_n_+100
cle/min_n_-110 (optional)
bos/oak_y_+110
and/or
chw/sea_y_+110

Just for a little peace of mind Bookmaker opened NYM/ARZ N +100

Smitler
Earlier this morning I did the same thing with the Mets/Arz game which is contrary to the Strategy.  It appears as if the last 2 or 3 days there have been more -115/-115 and -125/-105 games than before.......freakin' greedy books. 

Thinking I'm just gonna play the first 3 games on the chase and leave the last 3...BOL to however everyone plays it

Smitler
Have you tracked to see how straight betting all games with the juice fares? In other words, playing the juice (opposite) of your picks? It looks like they have won pretty consistently. Just not sure if laying all the juice pays off though.

I'm gonna start keeping track of "Team to Score 1st" lines in the same fashion how Smitler does it...just to see how it does...never know...lines are Bookmakers

BAL +160 

KC+145

ARZ +100

SEA +140

And if broken into NL/AL it would be:

NL                       AL

FLA +150             BAL +160

ARZ +100             KC +145

LAD +105             SEA +140

I'm gonna start keeping track of "Team to Score 1st" lines in the same fashion how Smitler does it...just to see how it does...never know...lines are Bookmakers

BAL +160 

KC+145

ARZ +100

SEA +140

And if broken into NL/AL it would be:

NL                       AL

FLA +150             BAL +160

ARZ +100             KC +145

LAD +105             SEA +140

In my opinion, the all star break threw a wrench in our system. Pitchers are creatures of habit and when you throw off their rest period it can change their performance. The juice will still always reflect the pitchers ERA primarily and the team etc. In the past week, the square bets predominated. I think if we give it some time, the wins will adjust in our favor relative to the system strategy. Right now it appears to be less dependable. That being said, maybe this will spur a reverse in the tides!

GL to ALL as always!
Cheers and thanks to Smitler's System

just came across this thread:

i noticed something interesting a year or so back in regards to this prop -- i kept betting the NO side of this prop and not doing to well. 

so, ... 

i took all the stats from 2008 season (i think) and in something like 52% of the games a run was scored in the first inning.  this ran counter to my thinking -- I was expecting to see something like 40% of the time a run would be scored in the first inning.  now i didn't have the prop lines so i couldn't calculate what expected payoffs would be if you just bet YES in every game, but generally speaking i noticed at the time one gets better than even money to take the YES side of the prop.  seems like odds are little more balanced on this prop now than they used to be.

just a few thoughts... 

Only problem I see is there might not be a score by the time the next one starts...see what happens...might get great + prices aswell

Let's have a good night guys...I put a unit each on both prop bets...

1st Inning Score: COL/FLA Y +135

Team to Score 1st: BAL +150 (was +160) highest at the time

Playing both as a chase system...I'll keep track of it

LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE!

GL everyone

thanks for the observation on the Col/ Fla gm Smit.