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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Need a little help backtesting please...

    Kababayan
    hyvong
    donfernando
    leo81
    bruin95
    ...
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    Kababayan
    Kababayan
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    Posts: 114
    Posted: Jul. 6, 2014 - 3:02 PM ET #1

    I would like to ask if a few of you wouldn't mind helping me backtest something.  I had this backtested three years already but can't find my results so I am having to backtest it again.  It's a simple NBA system that I was going to share with you when the NBA season came back around.  If I remember correctly, it went undefeated in the three years that I backtested.  It's very simple.  I noticed that a large number of teams that had won or lost 3 Games in a row ATS broke the streak on the 4th game ATS. It got me thinking about doing a chase after the 3rd win or loss ATS. I don't remember how long the chase was for (as I can't find my results.)  I remember it winning over 200+ units a year.  Would a few of you pitch in to do a year of backtesting and post the results when you have them?  It doesn't need to be right away, I just know that it will take me awhile to do the past few years again.  So:

    - Find an NBA team that is on a 3 game winning or losing streak ATS. Chase that team to break the streak beginning on the 4th game. 

    - Please post how many 3+ game streaks the team had (to show how many units won.) 

    For example:
    So far I have done 4 teams for 2013.  We had the streak broken after:
    3-game streak: 18
    4-game streak: 9
    5-game streak: 5
    6-game streak: 1
    7-game streak: 1

    So far if we start a chase after the 3rd ATS streak, we would be +34 units with a 4-game chase with just four teams calculated. 

    I'll finish 2013.  Is a few of you don't mind volunteering to take a year, it would be greatly appreciated.  Please let everyone know what year you are doing.  I am getting my results from Statfox. Thank you.
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    I would like to ask if a few of you wouldn't mind helping me backtest something.  I had this backtested three years already but can't find my results so I am having to backtest it again.  It's a simple NBA system that I was going to share with you when the NBA season came back around.  If I remember correctly, it went undefeated in the three years that I backtested.  It's very simple.  I noticed that a large number of teams that had won or lost 3 Games in a row ATS broke the streak on the 4th game ATS. It got me thinking about doing a chase after the 3rd win or loss ATS. I don't remember how long the chase was for (as I can't find my results.)  I remember it winning over 200+ units a year.  Would a few of you pitch in to do a year of backtesting and post the results when you have them?  It doesn't need to be right away, I just know that it will take me awhile to do the past few years again.  So:

    - Find an NBA team that is on a 3 game winning or losing streak ATS. Chase that team to break the streak beginning on the 4th game. 

    - Please post how many 3+ game streaks the team had (to show how many units won.) 

    For example:
    So far I have done 4 teams for 2013.  We had the streak broken after:
    3-game streak: 18
    4-game streak: 9
    5-game streak: 5
    6-game streak: 1
    7-game streak: 1

    So far if we start a chase after the 3rd ATS streak, we would be +34 units with a 4-game chase with just four teams calculated. 

    I'll finish 2013.  Is a few of you don't mind volunteering to take a year, it would be greatly appreciated.  Please let everyone know what year you are doing.  I am getting my results from Statfox. Thank you.
     
    hyvong
    hyvong
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    Posts: 1077
    Posted: Jul. 7, 2014 - 1:05 PM ET #2

    you will be broke with this system if 1 team went 9+ ats straight and I believe at least 1 team Tor last year that win 10 ats straight.
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    you will be broke with this system if 1 team went 9+ ats straight and I believe at least 1 team Tor last year that win 10 ats straight.
     
    Kababayan
    Kababayan
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    Joined: Mar, 2012
    Posts: 114
    Posted: Jul. 7, 2014 - 5:54 PM ET #3

    I tried something similar with hockey totals and then redistributed the losses after a 6 game loss.  It worked well because there were so few chase losses.  I don't remember after which game I began chasing. It may have been a 6 game chase after a 4 or 5 game streak.  I'll just keep backtesting and see what the numbers tell me.
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    I tried something similar with hockey totals and then redistributed the losses after a 6 game loss.  It worked well because there were so few chase losses.  I don't remember after which game I began chasing. It may have been a 6 game chase after a 4 or 5 game streak.  I'll just keep backtesting and see what the numbers tell me.
     
    donfernando
    donfernando
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    Posts: 108
    Posted: Jul. 14, 2014 - 8:36 PM ET #4

    i did something similar last year.
    A team that has lost 3 games in a row as favorite, chasing it when playing as dog.

    It went perfect last year, but i dont remeber the numbers, because i erase the notes
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    i did something similar last year.
    A team that has lost 3 games in a row as favorite, chasing it when playing as dog.

    It went perfect last year, but i dont remeber the numbers, because i erase the notes
     
    leo81
    leo81
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    Joined: Jul, 2013
    Posts: 328
    Posted: Jul. 23, 2014 - 11:46 PM ET #5

    Kababayan, the example your showing is a 5 game chase if it was posted correctly. Don't know how much help I would be,I'm 78 and slow as molasses maybe later as I'm busy with bb right now also I played your away FL >198 at the end of last year--maybe I can help after August 15
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    Kababayan, the example your showing is a 5 game chase if it was posted correctly. Don't know how much help I would be,I'm 78 and slow as molasses maybe later as I'm busy with bb right now also I played your away FL >198 at the end of last year--maybe I can help after August 15
     
    bruin95
    bruin95
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    Joined: Mar, 2001
    Posts: 378
    Posted: Jul. 25, 2014 - 12:58 AM ET #6

    Just for fun, I looked at several teams from this past season and already came up with a loss, based on your criteria.  Toronto covered 10 straight ATS at one point.  I then checked the reverse of your criteria and chased the team to do the same as their 3 game streak.  I've checked about 8 teams, including Toronto, and haven't come up with a loss yet.  All chases, so far, were done by the C game, with an average of 8 wins per team for the season.

     

    Also, not sure why you're using Statfox for results when all that info is conveniently located right here on covers.  The entire season of results, per team, is all on one page.  It would take you about 30 seconds per team , per season, to backcheck this.  There is season data all the way back to the 90-91 season.  

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    Just for fun, I looked at several teams from this past season and already came up with a loss, based on your criteria.  Toronto covered 10 straight ATS at one point.  I then checked the reverse of your criteria and chased the team to do the same as their 3 game streak.  I've checked about 8 teams, including Toronto, and haven't come up with a loss yet.  All chases, so far, were done by the C game, with an average of 8 wins per team for the season.

     

    Also, not sure why you're using Statfox for results when all that info is conveniently located right here on covers.  The entire season of results, per team, is all on one page.  It would take you about 30 seconds per team , per season, to backcheck this.  There is season data all the way back to the 90-91 season.  

     
    Kababayan
    Kababayan
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    Posts: 114
    Posted: Jul. 26, 2014 - 11:04 AM ET #7

    Bruin95,
    Thank you for the info.  I am using Statfox, and it is taking awhile.  I will use covers from now on.  Looking at the data that I have so far, I think my original plan was to play on a team after three losing games ATS, and not a three game streak either way.  I wish that I had my original results, but I remember it going undefeated over the past three season.  The positive is that if there is a loss, the losses can be redistributed over the remaining games.  I just got back from being out of town for a couple of weeks, so I'll spend some time back-testing.  I'll make sure that I get the results to everyone before NBA begins.  Thanks.
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    Bruin95,
    Thank you for the info.  I am using Statfox, and it is taking awhile.  I will use covers from now on.  Looking at the data that I have so far, I think my original plan was to play on a team after three losing games ATS, and not a three game streak either way.  I wish that I had my original results, but I remember it going undefeated over the past three season.  The positive is that if there is a loss, the losses can be redistributed over the remaining games.  I just got back from being out of town for a couple of weeks, so I'll spend some time back-testing.  I'll make sure that I get the results to everyone before NBA begins.  Thanks.
     
    Kababayan
    Kababayan
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    Joined: Mar, 2012
    Posts: 114
    Posted: Jul. 26, 2014 - 11:33 AM ET #8

    I am going to continue this on the "NBA ATS System Backtesting" thread.
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    I am going to continue this on the "NBA ATS System Backtesting" thread.
     
     
    luckytowin
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    Posts: 188
    Posted: Aug. 3, 2014 - 9:46 AM ET #9

    lol chasing is losing no one wins chasing losses all that back testing BS is for crap ............ thier aint no system in chasing

     

    no money managemnt either because you double up after a loss ..... we all know how that works out dont we?

           

     

    let's see i lost today so i'll bet the yanks - 150 for $300 to win back my $100 i lost.

    opsssssssssssssssss i lost again........... now down $400

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    lol chasing is losing no one wins chasing losses all that back testing BS is for crap ............ thier aint no system in chasing

     

    no money managemnt either because you double up after a loss ..... we all know how that works out dont we?

           

     

    let's see i lost today so i'll bet the yanks - 150 for $300 to win back my $100 i lost.

    opsssssssssssssssss i lost again........... now down $400

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