NCAA Football -6 game chase 3480-1 since 1980

Covers had Vandy over 49.5

Final score 48-3

So does Miss St

I had Vandy at 51 through the Station Casinos. That is where I will most likely bet so I went with that. Would be easy to take the lower total that Covers had, but it wouldn't be a true test for how I would bet. Where does covers get their lines? Just curious. Since I'm in Vegas, I use my local lines.

I believe covers uses pinny.

Ready for week 5, here are the lines I have right now, I will shop for lines in Vegas on Friday for Staurday's games:

Game 2:  Cincy 45.5 over

Game 3: TCU 54.5 over, Oregon St 60 over, Wash 48.5 over, Texas A&M 64 over. Oklahoma and Vandy DNP stay on game 3 next week.

Game 4: Boise St 52 under, Tulane 55 under, Utah St 52.5 under. Miss St DNP this week and stays on game 4 next week.

 

BTW for the NFL we'd be down to 3 teams on game 4 (unders) Dallas, AZ, Seattle. Or should we chase overs? See below.

Did some back testing for the past 5 seasons and found if you did a 6 game chase just like for the NCAAF one, but used all OVERS the system went 160-0 with only 3 teams going to a game 6. In 2009 Washington pushed in week 1 then finally got an over in week 7, Washington in 2007 pushed in week 1, had a week 4 bye and went over in week 7, Tenn in 2007 had a bye in week 4 and went over for the first time in week 7.  

I believe chasing overs is a better play.

Week 5 results: 4 wins, 4 losses, 3 DNP. 7 teams left!

Cincy, Oregon St, Texas A&M, Utah St (under) all won

Oklahoma, Vandy DNP - game 3 next week

TCU, Washington loss - game 4 next week

Miss St DNP - game 4 next week

Boise St, Tulane loss - game 5 next week

 

 

Bottom line after 5 weeks:

I used $10 as a unit. Game 1 bet $11 to win $10. If they went to game 2 bet $27.50 to win $25, game 3 is $55 to win $50, game 4 is $115.50 to win $105. With those in mind, would have laid out $902 in week 1, $1100 in week 2, $1177 in week 3, $1116.50 in week 4, $594 in week 5. Was up $673.50 after week 4. Week 5 was a $111 loss, so up $562.50 total.

Ready for week 6. There are 7 teams left.

Game 3: Vandy 44 over, Oklahoma 57.5 over ($55 to win $50 ea)

Game 4: TCU 42 under, Washington 65.5 under, Miss St. 46.5 under ($115.50 to win $105 ea)

Game 5: Boise St. 47 under, Tulane 55 under ($242 to win $220 ea)

Week 6 results: 3 wins, 4 losses. 4 teams left!

Oklahoma (over) Miss St and Tulane (both under) all won

Vandy (over) lost goes to game 4 next week

TCU, Washington (both under) lost - game 5 next week

Boise St. (under) loss - game 6 next week (Yikes!)

Week 7 here we go. 4 teams left. Sure am glad I'm testing on here before actually laying money down. Would be kind of nervous with all these 4-6 game chases.

 

Game 4 - Vandy 41 under

Game 5 - TCU 68.5 under, Washington 55 under

Game 6 (final game): Boise State 57.5 under

Split this week going 2-2 but still a profit since the game 6 team won.

Game 4 - Vandy 41 under

Game 5 - TCU 68.5 under      Washington 55 under

Game 6 (final game): Boise State 57.5 under

Vandy goes to game 5, TCU to the dreaded game 6. I probably would have stopped after week 4 when I was up 67.35 units, or after week 5 up 56.25 units. With the big win by Boise St., up 73.1 units but two big bets for next week. I'll track them for the systems sake but I would have bought my wife the wine fridge she wants and pocketed the rest a while ago.   

Is Vandy the same as Vanderbilt ? In that case they went under against MISOU last week and are not part of the system anymore.

There are 12 games to the season. Does anyone know where I am going with this?

Dan, are you going to bet over NE/SEA?

Yes, Vandy is Vanderbilt. They were on game 3 last week, so we were still betting the OVER.

Since 2007, every team has had at least 1 over in their first 6 games (a push would extend to game 7. Seattle is the last team remaining so they system would say yes. I'm just tracking, not placing any real $$. If you do, good luck, I hope it goes over.

See post 178. Nowhere in Vegas could you get Vandy at 49.5. The best I could find was 51, so it was a push. I don't use the numbers at Covers since I don't bet with offshore books. If you do, then cross Vandy off. I'm keeping them since I will be betting in vegas and only use Vegas lines.

Seattle OVER. That makes the NFL 6 run over chase 192-0 since 2007.

What do you do if case like this happen?

Interesting question, never really thought about it as it didn't come up this year. I'm assuming in your scenario team A and B are playing each other. I think you have it backwards because the system calls for betting the OVER in the first 3 games then the under. In any case I would place 2 bets, with the larger bet on Team A obviously. I would also try to find a difference in the line between books. A 1.5 to 2 point difference might not seem like much but you could hit both bets.

I looked into playing the last 6games ooouuu, but after back checking 2 conferences, I found 3 failures along with other problems like pushes. It sounded great but I will just wait until next year. Nice job, Dan!