Posted:
#26
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NBA/NCAAF/NFL Betting System for week 11/11
Posted:
#32
I do not know what you are doing, but if you depend on line movements you are depending on other peoples handicapping. Most line movement money is public money, therefore suckers money. One of my colleagues tracks smart money movement and has a winning year every year . He has a service and the bookmakers give him information about games. He tracks smart money.Most smart money is on live dogs. Since the public plays favorites it would be interesting to see when dogs are getting more money played on them then normal. Public money, according to him, in the NFL is winning only 39% of the time this year. You can not usually tell smart money from public money on line movement. 70%+ of all money in the NFL is bet on favorites. Line movements only mean in many cases the naive public is betting large amounts on the "public" teams. Also you must pay attention to how often a team is covering. Stay away from cold teams like San Ant, Dallas and the LAC until they start covering. You had some plays that you were playing teams with problems covering. Most of them lost. If you want to make money doing what you are doing you must be careful and keep records. Most people start a system without proper data. You should have data on 100 games with at least 58% of those games covering. Also your method should be mechanical. Therefore nothing subjective enters in the system which is the kiss of death. Good fortune to you pursuing whatever you are doing. If you find it does not get a 58% return abandon it.
Thursday I liked Chicago . Thr game started at-1 Chic and moves to -2 1/2 to Dal. Matchbook had the game at+120 if you played Chicago. The line movement was not smart money but public money and panic money. Chicago covered by 9+.They covered at 6-5. I did my own handicapping and did not get bothered by the line movement. In fact I think of it as an opportunity to make more money. Public money is like the lynch mob effect. They often lynch an innocent victim as also happens in football handicapping.
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Posted:
#33
CFB 11/14/08
No. 22 Cincinnati (7-2) at Louisville (5-4) 8:pm
Here is my analysis for this game
Overall Game
Offense Defense
Cin 26.7 20.8
Lou 26.8 25.8
Therefore, Lou +0.1 (offense) and Cin +5 (defense) => CIN +4.9
Home/Away
Offense Defense
Cin 23.6 28
Lou 29.7 22.5
Therefore, Lou +6.1 (offense) and Lou +5.5 (defense) => LOU +11.6
So, LOU 11.6 - CIN 4.9 = LOU + 6.7 points
ATS Edge: LOU
Cincy just won WV last week on the road game. It will be tough for them to win back-to-back on their 2nd road game. On the other hand, LOU had been losing to Pittsburg and Syracuse in the last 2 games. Nobody gonna touch LOU tonight. Also, public is all over Cincy tonight.
Looking at the ATS Edge & public perception, I am going with LOU +4
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Posted:
#35
Saturday CFB 11/15/2008
Here are my early lean picks. I will probably check the line movement before betting on them.
12pm
Northwestern +3.5 over Michigan
Duke +10.5 over Clemson
Purdue +18.5 over Iowa
3pm
Southern Mississippi -2.5 over East Carolina
4pm
Baylor -8 over Texas A&M
Nevada -15 over San Jose State
8pm
Boston College +6.5 over Florida State
Vanderbilt +3.5 over Kentucky
Troy +17 over LSU
Southern Methodist +13 over Texas El Paso
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Posted:
#36
Another to note for the college footbal game today: After last weeks overtime victory against West Virginia, the Bearcats have Big East Title win out and they represent the Big East in a BCS Bowl game. On the other hand, LOU needs to win this game if they want to go to a bowl game. With this motivation, I think LOU will win the game.
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Posted:
#37
Hot Tips of the Day for NFL (90%)
Looking at the TO and ToP on the print sheet from covers published each week.
TO: Turnovers
ToP: Time of Possession
When both teams have the same TO, whosever has better ToP, that is the winner.
Example, NFL Week 3
TO ToP
TB 1.0 29.4
CHI 1.0 30.0 Loser
CAR 1.0 31.9
MIN 1.0 32.3 Winner
PITT 0.5 30.6
PHIL 0.5 33.1 Winner
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 1-0
Week 5: 2-0
Week 6: None
Week 7: 1-0
Week 8: 1-0
Week 9: 1-0
Week 10: 1-0
Total: 9-1 (90% winning on NFL)
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Posted:
#42
Another HOT TIPS for NFL
The first tip was dealing with TO and ToP.
The second tip has to do with the Offense & Defense. When any team on the road. They need 2 conditions to win or cover the game.
1) Better Offense & Better Defense..Gee..what's else you want...
How can I get the stats to prove this? Let's take a look at week 10 and then you can go back and trace it.
Offense Defense
Rush Pass Tot Rush Pass Tot
JAC 110.0 202.6 312.6 114.4 220.9 335.3
DET 71.0 202.6 273.6 161.8 247.1 408.9
Week 9: 5-1
Week 10:3-0
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Posted:
#49
Update
12pm
Duke +10.5 over Clemson
South Florida -8 over Rutger
Indiana +35 over Penn St
3pm
Southern Mississippi -2.5 over East Carolina
4pm
Baylor -8 over Texas A&M
Nevada -15 over San Jose State
8pm
Boston College +6.5 over Florida State
Vanderbilt +3.5 over Kentucky
Troy +17 over LSU
Southern Methodist +13 over Texas El Paso
Action Games on Saturday College Footbal
3:30
South Carolina +22.5 over Florida
7:45pm
Mississippi State +22 over Alabama
Stanford +24 over USC
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