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NBA/NCAAF/NFL Betting System for week 11/11

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Posted: #26
NFL  
NYJ +3.5 over NE (1 unit) Try to lock your bet now. The line is droppping
 
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Posted: #27
CFB
Buffalo +3 over Akron
Miami -4 over VT
 
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Posted: #28
So is this a system or are you just handicapping the games?
 
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Posted: #29
 
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Posted: #30
I am just following my system...whatever it comes out, I will play them. I guess the O/U kinda screw up....
 
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Posted: #31
I have to admit that I am doing better with NFL & NBA. College football kinda screw up for me.
 
My NFL record is 42-26-1 (61.76%) on wagerline so far this year. That's damn good.
 
I am not asking you to play my games. Feel free to comment
 
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Posted: #32
 I do not know what you are doing, but if you depend on line movements you are depending on other peoples handicapping. Most line movement money is public money, therefore suckers money. One of my colleagues tracks smart money movement and has a winning year every year . He has a service and the bookmakers give him information about games. He tracks smart money.Most smart money is on live dogs. Since the public plays favorites it would be interesting to see when dogs are getting more money played on them then normal. Public money, according to him, in the NFL is winning only 39% of the time this year. You can not usually tell  smart money from public money on line movement. 70%+ of all money in the NFL is  bet on favorites. Line movements only mean in many cases the naive public is betting large amounts on the "public" teams. Also you must pay attention to how often a team is covering. Stay away from cold teams like San Ant, Dallas and the LAC until they start covering. You had some plays that you were playing teams with problems covering. Most of them lost. If you want to make money doing what you are doing you must be careful and keep records. Most people start a system without proper data. You should have data on  100 games with at least  58% of those games covering. Also your method should be mechanical. Therefore nothing subjective enters in the system which is the kiss of death. Good fortune to you pursuing whatever you are doing. If you find it does not get a 58% return abandon it.
 Thursday I liked Chicago . Thr game started at-1 Chic and moves to -2 1/2 to Dal. Matchbook had the game at+120 if you played Chicago. The line movement was not smart money but public money and panic money. Chicago covered by 9+.They covered at 6-5. I did my own handicapping and did not get bothered by the line movement. In fact I think of it as an opportunity to make more money. Public money is like the lynch mob effect. They often lynch an innocent victim as also happens in football handicapping.
 
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Posted: #33
CFB 11/14/08
 
No. 22 Cincinnati (7-2) at Louisville (5-4) 8:pm
 
Here is my analysis for this game
Overall Game
            Offense    Defense
Cin      26.7         20.8
Lou     26.8         25.8
 
Therefore, Lou +0.1 (offense) and Cin +5 (defense) => CIN +4.9
 
Home/Away
            Offense    Defense
Cin      23.6         28
Lou     29.7         22.5
 
Therefore, Lou +6.1 (offense) and Lou +5.5 (defense) => LOU +11.6
 
So, LOU 11.6 - CIN 4.9 = LOU + 6.7 points
ATS Edge: LOU
 
Cincy just won WV last week on the road game. It will be tough for them to win back-to-back on their 2nd road game.  On the other hand, LOU had been losing to Pittsburg and Syracuse in the last 2 games. Nobody gonna touch LOU tonight. Also, public is all over Cincy tonight.
 
Looking at the ATS Edge & public perception, I am going with LOU +4
 
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Posted: #34
NFL  
NYJ/NE UNDER 42.5
NYJ +3.5 over NE
 
CFB
Buffalo +3 over Akron
Miami -4 over VT
 
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Posted: #35
Saturday CFB 11/15/2008
 
Here are my early lean picks. I will probably check the line movement before betting on them.
 
12pm
Northwestern +3.5 over Michigan
Duke +10.5 over Clemson
Purdue +18.5 over Iowa
 
3pm
Southern Mississippi -2.5 over East Carolina
 
4pm
Baylor -8 over Texas A&M
Nevada -15 over San Jose State
 
8pm
Boston College +6.5 over Florida State
Vanderbilt +3.5 over Kentucky
Troy +17 over LSU
Southern Methodist +13 over Texas El Paso
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #36
Another to note for the college footbal game today: After last weeks overtime victory against West Virginia, the Bearcats have Big East Title win out and they represent the Big East in a BCS Bowl game. On the other hand, LOU needs to win this game if they want to go to a bowl game. With this motivation, I think LOU will win the game.
 
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Posted: #37

Hot Tips of the Day for NFL (90%) 

Looking at the TO and ToP on the print sheet from covers published each week.

TO: Turnovers
ToP: Time of Possession

When both teams have the same TO, whosever has better ToP, that is the winner.

Example, NFL Week 3
               TO  ToP
TB          1.0  29.4
CHI        1.0  30.0 Loser

CAR      1.0 31.9
MIN        1.0 32.3 Winner

PITT       0.5 30.6
PHIL      0.5 33.1 Winner

Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 1-0
Week 5: 2-0
Week 6: None
Week 7: 1-0
Week 8: 1-0
Week 9: 1-0
Week 10: 1-0
Total: 9-1 (90% winning on NFL)
 
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Posted: #38
Hopefully Las Vegas does not see this thread....
 
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Posted: #39
Action Games on Saturday College Footbal
 
3:30
South Carolina +22.5 over Florida
 
7:45pm
Mississippi State +22 over Alabama
Stanford +24 over USC
 
 
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Posted: #40
NBA 11/14
BOS -10 over Denver
ORL +1.5 over DAL
DET +9.5 over LAL
 
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Posted: #41
Fla St just taken off-the-board, suspended 5 players
 
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Posted: #42

Another HOT TIPS for NFL

The first tip was dealing with TO and ToP.

The second tip has to do with the Offense & Defense. When any team on the road. They need 2 conditions to win or cover the game.

1) Better Offense & Better Defense..Gee..what's else you want...

How can I get the stats to prove this? Let's take a look at week 10 and then you can go back and trace it.

              Offense                  Defense
              Rush Pass   Tot     Rush  Pass Tot
JAC       110.0  202.6  312.6 114.4  220.9 335.3
DET       71.0   202.6  273.6 161.8  247.1  408.9

Week 9: 5-1

Week 10:3-0

 
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Posted: #43
Week 11 picks based on the Offense & Defense
 
NYJ (W)
CHIC
PHIL
NO
AZ
 
They are qualifed for this week betting.
 
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Posted: #44
Week 11 Picks based on the opening line report
Denver
Pittsburg
Jacksonsville
Cleveland
 
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Posted: #45
NBA 11/14
Wash +6.5 over MIA
 
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Posted: #46
BOSTON -10 is NO PLAY
 
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Posted: #47
....with Boston as a no-play in NBA last night...
 
ORL & Det ...winners
Wash...loser
 
2-1...
 
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Posted: #48
...could you split into separate threads your NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAA picks so the thread does not have as many replies to go through....
 
i love the info my man... 
 
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Posted: #49
Update
 
12pm
Duke +10.5 over Clemson
South Florida -8 over Rutger
Indiana +35 over Penn St
 
3pm
Southern Mississippi -2.5 over East Carolina
 
4pm
Baylor -8 over Texas A&M
Nevada -15 over San Jose State
 
8pm
Boston College +6.5 over Florida State
Vanderbilt +3.5 over Kentucky
Troy +17 over LSU
Southern Methodist +13 over Texas El Paso
 
Action Games on Saturday College Footbal
 
3:30
South Carolina +22.5 over Florida
 
7:45pm
Mississippi State +22 over Alabama
Stanford +24 over USC
 
 
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Posted: #50
3pm
Southern Mississippi -2.5 over East Carolina (NO PLAY)
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