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NBA System Plays

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Prospect
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Posted: #151
Quote Originally Posted by Air1:

sorry for the late post guys.
plays for today
OKC C bet
Stifler has S4 - Orlando +4. game 1 of 4
What line are u getting for that OKC c bet tonight? What is record for C plays so far this year?
 
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Posted: #152
Quote Originally Posted by CG2A:

What line are u getting for that OKC c bet tonight? What is record for C plays so far this year?


I backtested everything using covers closing lines.
When I post a play for my systems, try to get closing lines or better if you can.

I don't know the record for C games as I am using several systems, some I do not chase, some are 2 game chases and 3 game chases.
 
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Posted: #153

Road favorite winner (LA Clippers -7)              

labby line: x  x  x  x  2.2  3.52  x  x  4.97  6.57  x  x

12/18 play (Atlanta -6.5)  9.65 units to win 8.77

posted units won -7.26, since season start +13.74

Good day yesterday with the Clippers and Thunder winning. I need a little winning streak here to clear my line.

 
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Posted: #154
OKC brings us back in the black

Only pending play I have is GS 1Q ML Home Fave chase gm 1 of 3 tonight.

Stifler's Plays

S1
(B Bet) Utah - waiting on line movement
S3
(A Bet) Char fade: Lakers -11,5 1,10u
S4
(A Bet) Dal fade: Philadelphia +6 1,10u
 
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Posted: #155
Adding some 1Q ML Home Fav plays
Chi tonight 1st of 3 game chase
NJ tonight 1st of 3 game chase
Maybe min.....

Stifler's pending:
- S2 Bos, A Bet on 19.12.2012
- S2 Cle fade, A Bet on 19.12.2012
 
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Posted: #156
My last final is on Friday. I will do some more research on the 1Q ML Home Fave after that.

NJ + Chi won their 1Q ML chase... This is crazy, SU A bets are like 13-2 for this chase.
GS is the only pending bet left for this system.
For reference min might be added later

Stifler's systems hit on Utah to win
Dal fade TBD
Char fade TBD

Akell - Atl almost had it!

 
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Posted: #157
no streaky plays and no 1q plays today

Stifler's Plays
S1 (A Bet) Ind: Indiana -3,5 2,31u

S2
(A Bet) Cle fade:Boston - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) Bos:Boston - waiting on line movement

S3
(B Bet) Char fade:Phoenix - waiting on line movement

S4
(A Bet) Wash fade: Orlando - no line up yet
(A Bet) Atl fade: OKC -6,5 1,10u

Pending
Dal B bet tomorrow

Akell's System
OKC -6 to win 11.85 units
 
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Posted: #158

Road favorite loser (Atlanta -6.5)              

labby line: x  x  x  x  2.2  3.52  x  x  4.97  6.57  x  x  9.65

12/19 play (Ok. City -6)  13.04 units to win 11.85

posted units won -16.91, since season start +4.09

 
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Posted: #159

Road favorite winner (Ok. City -6)              

labby line: x  x  x  x  x  3.52  x  x  4.97  6.57  x  x  x

12/20 play (Ok. City -3.5)  11.10 units to win 10.09

posted units won -5.06, since season start +15.94

 
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Posted: #160
                      05-12    | When played @ |
...................  | Record | 1U since 05-06  | Playing @  | 12-13 Record
System #1: | 88-1.... | +79.74 Units | 3 unit chase    | +9 3-0 (0 pending)
System #2: | 75-11.. | +37.5 Units.  | 2 unit chase    | -4.8 1-1 (0 pending)
System #3: | 35-1.... | +26.74 Units | 1 unit chase    | (0 pending)
System #4: | 32-1.... | +23.74 Units | 1 unit chase    | +1 1-0 (0 pending)
System #5: | 77-44.. | +28.6 Units.  | 1.5 unit 1 play | -.5 1-1 (0 pending)
System #6: | 24-1.... | +15.74 Units | 1 unit chase    | +1 1-0 (0 pending)
System #7: | 12-4.... | +7.6 Units..... | 3 unit 1 play *  | +3 1-0 (0 pending)
System #8: | 44-5.... | +25.85 Units | 2 unit chase    | -6.8 0-1 (0 pending)
Total Units Won This Season                                     +1.9 Units

* = Replaced previous system play.

Current Streakers
Tor 5 W
Den 5 W
Pho 4 W

PLAYS!
No upcoming plays.

Experimental Plays Record: (won't count to total record)
1Q ML +15.5 Units .... these plays are from a system i am going to develop + very minimal capping.
1Q ATS +3 Units
NBA non-system plays: - 1.1 + 1.5 Units = +.4 Unit

Stiflers records:
S1: W 12 | L 1 (+6,75 units)
S2: W 4 | L 0 (+4,00 units)
S3: W 8 | L 0 (+8,00 units)
S4: W 16 | L 0 (+17,00 units  - 1, 2 unit play by him)

pending:
- S4 Wash fade, B Bet on 21.12.2012
- S4 Dal fade, B bet -5.5 tonight game 2 of 4 chase.
 
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Posted: #161
It's no surprise to me I am my own worst enemy. Cuz every now and then I kick the living sh!t outta me, please tell mee whyyyy!!??

I did it yet again, Forgot to play phoenix the other night on their B bet, and last night I took dal instead of fading them. FML and my dyslectic problem!

Only play today on Stifler's systems:
S$ (B Bet) Wash fade: Detroit - waiting on line movement

Current Streakers
Tor 5 W
Pho 4 W
 
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Posted: #162

Road favorite loser (Ok. City -3.5)              

labby line: x  x  x  x  x  3.52  x  x  4.97  6.57  x  x  x  11.10

The trouble playing a labby line is if your winning percentage goes under 40% for any extended period, your plays will get too big. My record over the last 16 games is 5 wins, 10 loses, 1 push, which means I'm winning at just over 31% in those 16 games. So at this point I am adjusting my labby line in hoping that a winning trend will be upon us soon.  My new line will have the same amount needed to win, only I spilt it up into more numbers. My new line:

labby line: 1.25  2.50  3.75  5.00  6.25  7.50

12/21 play (Atlanta -2)  9.63 units to win 8.75.

posted units won -16.16, since season start +4.84

 
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Posted: #163
after tonight it is 31.25%
Might be better to fade the system this season.
 
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Posted: #164

As bad as my road favorite system has been lately, it's still hitting at 55% percent for the year.  22 wins, 18 losses, and 2 pushes. Thanks to an over 70% winning November.  It's now in the red for the season for the first time.  I'll track it for a little longer, I think it will recover but we'll see. Last year is the only time I've played this so there is no track record of great success.

I still don't understand why Atlanta would be favored over Philly on the road.  Philly is a playoff team and was on a 5 game losing streak. They were due to win one.  I thought for sure that Indiana was going to end up the play and it should have.

 
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Posted: #165

Road favorite loser (Atlanta -2)  

labby line: 1.25  2.50  3.75  5.00  6.25  7.50  9.63

12/22 play (Indiana -4)  11.69 units to win 10.63

posted units won -25.79, since season start -4.79

 
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Posted: #166
no plays today
current streakers
atl 4l
pho 4 w

stiflers plays to come later
 
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Posted: #167
@ akell I hope it picks up

Stiflers Play
S1 Fade Det A Bet Play Washington wait on better line.
 
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Posted: #168
no plays today for me and stifler
Akell has lac -6

pho has a 5 game win streak ats
 
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Posted: #169

Road favorite winner (Indiana -4)  

labby line: x  2.50  3.75  5.00  6.25  7.50  x

12/23 play (LA Clippers -6)  11.00 units to win 10.00

posted units won -15.16, since season start +5.84

 
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Posted: #170

Road favorite winner (LA Clippers -6)  

labby line: x  x  3.75  5.00  6.25  x  x

12/24 no plays

posted units won -5.16, since season start +15.84

Air, it's hard to explain what's happenning with your system plays. I was hoping to win around 30 to 40 units this year based on the success we had with the last half of last year's NBA season.  But we can't get any streaks going long enough for some plays. I've been playing Stifler's plays for small units and he has been very successful so far.

 
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Posted: #171
current streakers, mia 4 w

akell, when backtesting i saw that each system would have about 10-15 plays a season. totaling about 100 plays a years. things should pick up a little soon.

Stifler's systems are good and he has back tested his data as well. I am on a 1 unit chase for each of his systems. hoping to get 50 units by the end of the season with his plays.
 
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Posted: #172
stifler has not plays as well til the 26th.

Merry xmas all.
 
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Posted: #173

Road favorite system.  

labby line: x  x  3.75  5.00  6.25  x  x

12/26  (Miami -10)  11.00 units to win 10.00

posted units won -5.16, since season start +15.84

 
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Posted: #174
Current Streakers
Mia 5 W
Hou 4 W
NJ 4 L

Stiflers plays
S1 (B Bet) Det fade: Atlanta -7,5 4,85u
S1 (A Bet) SA fade: Toronto - waiting on line movement
 
 
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Posted: #175

Quote Originally Posted by Air1:

Current Streakers
Mia 5 W
Hou 4 W
NJ 4 L

Stiflers plays
S1 (B Bet) Det fade: Atlanta -7,5 4,85u
S1 (A Bet) SA fade: Toronto - waiting on line movement

What does the numbers next to Atlanta -7 mean? (5 4, 85 U??)

Thanks!!

CG

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