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NBA System - Algorithmic

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Posts: 49
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #1
I have created a system in an excel document that has taken me various days. There are approximately 20 statistics used and each one has its own function in the formula. To explain the intricacies of the formula would take hours.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #2
DAL -8.5 @ PHI +8.5 - TOTAL 203
Home Chance of Victory 8.68664999
Away Chance of Victory 91.31335001
Home Team Predicted Scoring 81.94555608
Away Team Predicted Scoring 121.2846201
Home Team Win/Loss Margin -39.33906402
Away Team Win/Loss Margin 39.33906402
Predicted Total Points 203.2301762
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 0.230176187
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 17.81025924
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 82.18974076




IND +6.5 @ CHI -6.5 - TOTAL 197.5
Home Chance of Victory 50.10443682
Away Chance of Victory 49.89556318
Home Team Predicted Scoring 96.20971389
Away Team Predicted Scoring 96.14275153
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 0.066962358
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -0.066962358
Predicted Total Points 192.3524654
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Under
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total -5.147534572
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 41.71303369
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 58.28696631




BOS +5 @ HOU -5 - TOTAL 207 - BOS B2B
Home Chance of Victory 25.91822706
Away Chance of Victory 74.08177294
Home Team Predicted Scoring 91.73484179
Away Team Predicted Scoring 109.2828458
Home Team Win/Loss Margin -17.54800402
Away Team Win/Loss Margin 17.54800402
Predicted Total Points 201.0176876
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Under
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total -5.982312393
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 24.48200285
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 75.51799715
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #3
OKC +2.5 @ MEM -2.5 - TOTAL 197.5 - OKC B2B
Home Chance of Victory 23.41075386
Away Chance of Victory 76.58924614
Home Team Predicted Scoring 97.76663859
Away Team Predicted Scoring 119.1194692
Home Team Win/Loss Margin -21.35283062
Away Team Win/Loss Margin 21.35283062
Predicted Total Points 216.8861078
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 19.38610781
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 24.89439442
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 75.10560558




POR +12 @ SAS -12 - TOTAL 201 - POR B2B
Home Chance of Victory 93.16561131
Away Chance of Victory 6.834388694
Home Team Predicted Scoring 116.2881275
Away Team Predicted Scoring 75.23894843
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 41.04917909
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -41.04917909
Predicted Total Points 191.527076
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Under
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total -9.472924043
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 82.17878312
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 17.82121688




LAL +12 @ PHX -12 - TOTAL 205 - LAL B2B
Home Chance of Victory 88.03400188
Away Chance of Victory 11.96599812
Home Team Predicted Scoring 119.6307081
Away Team Predicted Scoring 85.78125994
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 33.84944811
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -33.84944811
Predicted Total Points 205.411968
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 0.411967992
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 74.41646522
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 25.58353478
 
Veteran
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Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 1304
Posted: #4
Good luck with NBA, I'll be following along
 
Veteran
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Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 1304
Posted: #5
With you on IND, BOS, POR
 
Veteran
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Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 1304
Posted: #6
Sorry San Antonio, not Portland
 
Veteran
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Joined: Aug, 2013
Posts: 1033
Posted: #7
Thanks for posting panda.
Will be using your predictions to assist in teasers
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #8
DAL @ PHI
DAL -8.5 
OVER 203 


IND @ CHI
IND +6.5 
UNDER 197.5 


BOS @ HOU
BOS +5 
UNDER 207 (BY 1 POINT LOL)


OKC @ MEM
OKC +2.5 
OVER 197.5 


POR @ SAS
SAS -12  (BY 1 POINT LOL)
UNDER 201 


LAL @ PHX
PHX -12
OVER 205


9-3 Total.
 
Banned
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Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

With you on IND, BOS, SAN
3-0
 
Veteran
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Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 1304
Posted: #10
Panda, exceptional results, hope the trend continues
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #11
Thanks all for the positive feedback. 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #12
MIL +3 @ WAS -3 - TOTAL 198
Home Chance of Victory 55.45060943
Away Chance of Victory 44.54939057
Home Team Predicted Scoring 107.4753869
Away Team Predicted Scoring 103.6250909
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 3.850296008
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -3.850296008
Predicted Total Points 211.1004777
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 13.10047772
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 51.00684952
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 48.99315048




MIN +9 @ MIA -9 - TOTAL 198
Home Chance of Victory 66.66176855
Away Chance of Victory 33.33823145
Home Team Predicted Scoring 102.2405805
Away Team Predicted Scoring 91.08934814
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 11.15123233
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -11.15123233
Predicted Total Points 193.3299286
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Under
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total -4.670071387
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 52.77906267
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 47.22093733




CHA -1 @ NYK +1 - TOTAL 196
Home Chance of Victory 43.67959939
Away Chance of Victory 56.32040061
Home Team Predicted Scoring 94.21892383
Away Team Predicted Scoring 98.2960322
Home Team Win/Loss Margin -4.077108372
Away Team Win/Loss Margin 4.077108372
Predicted Total Points 192.514956
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Under
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total -3.485043975
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 46.0122133
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 53.9877867
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #13
ATL -4.5 @ BKN +4.5 - TOTAL 197.5
Home Chance of Victory 28.28312319
Away Chance of Victory 71.71687681
Home Team Predicted Scoring 94.78081822
Away Team Predicted Scoring 110.6800774
Home Team Win/Loss Margin -15.89925915
Away Team Win/Loss Margin 15.89925915
Predicted Total Points 205.4608956
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 7.960895583
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 36.4616097
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 63.5383903




CLE -4.5 @ DET +4.5 - TOTAL 195
Home Chance of Victory 22.20614874
Away Chance of Victory 77.79385126
Home Team Predicted Scoring 76.74928865
Away Team Predicted Scoring 94.58444
Home Team Win/Loss Margin -17.83515135
Away Team Win/Loss Margin 17.83515135
Predicted Total Points 171.3337286
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Under
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total -23.66627135
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 31.43432115
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 68.56567885




DEN +6.5 @ NOP -6.5 - TOTAL 206
Home Chance of Victory 48.22465663
Away Chance of Victory 51.77534337
Home Team Predicted Scoring 115.5857315
Away Team Predicted Scoring 116.9624706
Home Team Win/Loss Margin -1.37673905
Away Team Win/Loss Margin 1.37673905
Predicted Total Points 232.5482021
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 26.54820206
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 41.6090341
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 58.3909659
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #14
TOR +9.5 @ GSW -9.5 - TOTAL 209
Home Chance of Victory 86.24679362
Away Chance of Victory 13.75320638
Home Team Predicted Scoring 124.8007007
Away Team Predicted Scoring 91.90247148
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 32.89822926
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -32.89822926
Predicted Total Points 216.7031722
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 7.703172227
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 74.72430064
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 25.27569936
 
Captain
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Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #15
Very interesting predicted scores. 3 sides and 3 totals with double digit differences in prediction vs line. 

Good luck!
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Banned
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Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #16
'dogs' are covering (aka: TOR, NYN, & DET)
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #17
MIN +4 @ ORL -4 - TOTAL 203 - MIN B2B
Home Chance of Victory 55.7514715
Away Chance of Victory 44.2485285
Home Team Predicted Scoring 101.7553689
Away Team Predicted Scoring 97.91090905
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 3.844459851
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -3.844459851
Predicted Total Points 199.666278
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Under
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total -3.333722041
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 49.8052508
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 50.1947492




IND -7 @ PHI +7 - TOTAL 191.5
Home Chance of Victory 12.05120641
Away Chance of Victory 87.94879359
Home Team Predicted Scoring 76.73077718
Away Team Predicted Scoring 106.8651642
Home Team Win/Loss Margin -30.134387
Away Team Win/Loss Margin 30.134387
Predicted Total Points 183.5959414
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Under
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total -7.904058634
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 21.9804841
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 78.0195159




BKN +6.5 @ CHA -6.5 - TOTAL 195 - BKN B2B
Home Chance of Victory 84.79458714
Away Chance of Victory 15.20541286
Home Team Predicted Scoring 113.5722837
Away Team Predicted Scoring 85.28592679
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 28.28635695
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -28.28635695
Predicted Total Points 198.8582105
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 3.858210542
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 75.0257775
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 24.9742225
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #18
DAL +5 @ BOS -5 - TOTAL 204.5
Home Chance of Victory 56.87086158
Away Chance of Victory 43.12913842
Home Team Predicted Scoring 110.7503474
Away Team Predicted Scoring 105.7609297
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 4.989417757
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -4.989417757
Predicted Total Points 216.5112771
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 12.01127709
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 49.98778096
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 50.01221904




SAC +3.5 @ ATL -3.5 - TOTAL 208.5
Home Chance of Victory 55.08069467
Away Chance of Victory 44.91930533
Home Team Predicted Scoring 110.9835784
Away Team Predicted Scoring 107.2747869
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 3.708791478
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -3.708791478
Predicted Total Points 218.2583654
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 9.758365366
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 50.23915458
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 49.76084542




POR +6.5 @ HOU -6.5 - TOTAL 211
Home Chance of Victory 49.56311228
Away Chance of Victory 50.43688772
Home Team Predicted Scoring 96.03234119
Away Team Predicted Scoring 96.31245839
Home Team Win/Loss Margin -0.280117199
Away Team Win/Loss Margin 0.280117199
Predicted Total Points 192.3447996
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Under
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total -18.65520041
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 41.27413604
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 58.72586396
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #19
NOP +11 @ OKC -11 - TOTAL 211.5 - NOP B2B
Home Chance of Victory 91.64907604
Away Chance of Victory 8.350923964
Home Team Predicted Scoring 121.5489916
Away Team Predicted Scoring 81.53656912
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 40.0124225
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -40.0124225
Predicted Total Points 203.0855607
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Under
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total -8.414439262
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 80.8209921
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 19.1790079




DEN +13.5 @ SAS -13.5 - TOTAL 196 - DEN B2B
Home Chance of Victory 82.97662605
Away Chance of Victory 17.02337395
Home Team Predicted Scoring 117.8705639
Away Team Predicted Scoring 90.52190239
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 27.34866149
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -27.34866149
Predicted Total Points 208.3924663
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 12.39246627
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 66.05010798
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 33.94989202




TOR +4 @ UTAH -4 - TOTAL 187 - TOR B2B
Home Chance of Victory 45.98450868
Away Chance of Victory 54.01549132
Home Team Predicted Scoring 91.64865265
Away Team Predicted Scoring 94.14065478
Home Team Win/Loss Margin -2.492002138
Away Team Win/Loss Margin 2.492002138
Predicted Total Points 185.7893074
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Under
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total -1.210692568
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 41.34865748
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 58.65134252
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #20
CHI +3 @ PHX -3 - TOTAL 202.5
Home Chance of Victory 59.79297344
Away Chance of Victory 40.20702656
Home Team Predicted Scoring 115.864612
Away Team Predicted Scoring 108.44914
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 7.415471953
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -7.415471953
Predicted Total Points 224.313752
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 21.81375202
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 54.90589023
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 45.09410977
 
Veteran
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Joined: May, 2008
Posts: 2179
Posted: #21
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #22
MIN +4 @ ORL -4 - TOTAL 203 - MIN B2B
MIN +4 
UNDER 203  (Very annoying OT beat)




IND -7 @ PHI +7 - TOTAL 191.5
IND -7 
UNDER 191.5 




BKN +6.5 @ CHA -6.5 - TOTAL 195 - BKN B2B
CHA -6.5
OVER 195 




DAL +5 @ BOS -5 - TOTAL 204.5
DAL +5 
OVER 204.5 




SAC +3.5 @ ATL -3.5 - TOTAL 208.5
ATL -3.5 
OVER 208.5 




POR +6.5 @ HOU -6.5 - TOTAL 211
POR +6.5 
UNDER 211 - PUSH




NOP +11 @ OKC -11 - TOTAL 211.5 - NOP B2B
OKC -11 
UNDER 211.5 




DEN +13.5 @ SAS -13.5 - TOTAL 196 - DEN B2B
SAS -13.5 
OVER 196 




TOR +4 @ UTAH -4 - TOTAL 187 - TOR B2B
TOR +4 - PUSH
UNDER 187 


9-7-2 so far.

Waiting on result of CHI @ PHX
 
Veteran
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Joined: May, 2014
Posts: 1571
Posted: #23
Hi! How can I export the data from the NBA Matchup page into an Excel spreadsheet? Thanks.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by RojasBello:

Hi! How can I export the data from the NBA Matchup page into an Excel spreadsheet? Thanks.

Are you talking about oddsshark? 
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #25
SAC +8.5 @ MIA -8.5 - TOTAL 202 - SAC B2B
Home Chance of Victory 75.88855752
Away Chance of Victory 24.11144248
Home Team Predicted Scoring 113.284176
Away Team Predicted Scoring 93.57871254
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 19.70546344
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -19.70546344
Predicted Total Points 206.8628885
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 4.862888532
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 63.23278302
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 36.76721698




MIL +10.5 @ CLE -10.5 - TOTAL 194.5
Home Chance of Victory 79.47681415
Away Chance of Victory 20.52318585
Home Team Predicted Scoring 112.2522925
Away Team Predicted Scoring 89.57688182
Home Team Win/Loss Margin 22.67541067
Away Team Win/Loss Margin -22.67541067
Predicted Total Points 201.8291743
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 7.32917431
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 64.65678547
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 35.34321453




GSW -7.5 @ LAC +7.5 - TOTAL 212
Home Chance of Victory 20.12498621
Away Chance of Victory 79.87501379
Home Team Predicted Scoring 101.3006596
Away Team Predicted Scoring 127.465161
Home Team Win/Loss Margin -26.16450143
Away Team Win/Loss Margin 26.16450143
Predicted Total Points 228.7658206
Prediction of Over/Under Book Total Over
Predicted Margin of Over/Under Book Total 16.7658206
Home Team Percent Chance of Cover 30.62530297
Away Team Percent Chance of Cover 69.37469703
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