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nba road , haves /ats syst

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Prospect
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Posted: #151
kkirby99

So your taking your lost bets and putting them on the end of the line?And even doing that the bets got up to 500? And this is all playing to quit if the game goes past play 3? Sounds harsh, when my numbers started to inflate I probably would have created a 2nd line.

Your on to something though, I believe your right in that this system would be really effective if we only went to 3 or 4 plays. Using 1 or 2 lines. Looking at past stats which I found on another forum, the first play of the series always has the highest win percentage. 2nd play is always very high. 3rd is good and 4th is okay. Not a lot of plays make it to the 6th play but the 6th play win percentage for the games that do drop that far is actually not very good. This season is no different, the only play to go to 6th was a losing series.

What do you think about having 2 lines, dividing each losing bet by 50% and putting them on both lines (to avoid too much bet inflation), and only playing to the 4th play?

Here are some quick stats:
current season: 2 games past 4th play, 1 loses
09-10 season: 7 games past 4th play, 1 loses
08-09 season: 5 games past 4th play, 1 loses
07-08 season: 7 games past 4th play, 2 loses
06-07 season: 3 games past 4th play, 1 loses

Would the wins be able to counteract us walking away from (on average) 5 games per season?  Sounds successful?

Thanks kkirby99
 
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Posted: #152
You can do that but it will take you longer to clear lines. Up to Feb. these games were hitting at greater than 60% rate. The bets weren't getting that high before the lines were being cleared. Feb. has been a little uneasy but using the Lab line, you're still just one win away from clearing a particularly nasty sequence where (assuming the next play is the win) you only hit 41%. If the next sequence proves to be just as difficult as this last one would have been, maybe an adjustment would be in order to stretch out the time it takes to clear lines but would prevent the bets from getting too high. GL in what u decide to do.
 
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Posted: #153
So I take it you suggest the best way to play would be with 1 line, and just expand it if things get nasty? I was more lenient towards doing it this way as well. If things inflate take cheddar off the numbers and make a 2nd line. Is your unit gain higher than limited progression? I believe that is at +40 or so.

I will most likely listen to your method (which if im correct is 1 labby line, play only to 1st half game 2) as it has been proven already this season and just add a 2nd line to any sequence that has more losses than usual.
 
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Posted: #154
i think gm 1 was like 45-80 last year..that would have bankrupt most players
 
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Posted: #155
not too sure how you've come to that conclusion, badhank. i don't believe it would bankrupt you
 
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Posted: #156
well draw it out then 45 wins and 80 loses you better have 4 or 5 hundread units gonna be some nasty streaks in there
 
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Posted: #157
bh, you talking about both halves of game 1 or just the 1H? If you're talking about just the 1st bet (1H) then it would depend very  much on what 2H of game 1 did to determine if there were going to be nasty streaks. Did u look at 2H?
 
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Posted: #158
the first half of gm 1 went 45-80 last season..which explains why this season is so good

1# ............. 1st half / gm 1.............. 45 series wins
#2 ............. 2nd half / gm 1 ............ 45 series wins
#3 ............. 1st half / gm 2 ............. 20 series wins
#4 ............. 2nd half / gm 2 ............ 9 series wins
#5 ............ 1st half / gm 3 ...............3 series wins (1 LOSS)
#6..............2nd half/ gm 3................3 series win 
if anybody thinks they can get thru a 45-80 without some real bad streaks dont know what they are talking about..if you know kirby99 let me in on it
 
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Posted: #159
2nd half of gm 1 woulda been 45-35
 
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Posted: #160
so playing both halves of game 1 resulted in 90-110 (45%) last year. Playing 1H of game 2 would be 20-15. So overall plays were 110-125 (nearly 47%)  No where near what this year has given us but 47% is definitely survivable (and profitable) without too much pain using Labby lines if you have the discipline to bet what the lines dictate you to bet.
 
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Posted: #161
There's a math error in my last post. game 1's would have been 90-115 (44%) last year. Overall would have been 110-130 (nearly 46%) still OK with labby.
 
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Posted: #162
kirby99

how are you playing it 1 labby line or more
 
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Posted: #163
I'm playing one but you could split it up into two and just not clear lines as fast. It would tone down the amounts of the bets a bit though, a liitle more conservative
 
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Posted: #164
NBA ROAD SYSTEM UPDATE THRU 2/17
HALVES / ATS / 2010-11
SERIES RECORD 87 - 1
PENDING: 0

SUMMARY:

1ST PLAY OF SERIES.........56
2ND PLAY OF SERIES.........20
3RD PLAY OF SERIES.........8
4TH PLAY OF SERIES.........2
5TH PLAY OF SERIES.........1
6TH PLAY OF SERIES.........0
LOSS..............................1

*includes optional plays (18 - 0)

STD PROGRESSION / UNITS + 2.45
LIMITED PROG / UNITS +47.78
 
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Posted: #165
okc winner 1h

 
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Posted: #166
NBA ROAD SYTEM
HALVES / ATS
FEB 2011

POR @ DEN (2/2), IND (2/4), CLE (2/5)........................WIN (2/6)

DAL @ NY (2/2), BOS (2/4), CHA (2/5).........................LOSS (0/6)

CHI @ POR (2/7), UT (2/9), NO (2/12)...........................WIN (1/6)

DAL @ SAC (2/9), DEN (2/10), HOU (2/12).................WIN (2/6)

POR @ TOR (2/11), DET (2/13), MN (2/14).................WIN (2/6)

SA @ WAS (2/12), NJ (2/14), CHI (2/17).....................WIN (5/6)

PHI @ MN (2/12), MEM (2/15), HOU (2/16).................WIN (3/6)

DEN @ MEM (2/13), HOU (2/14), MIL (2/16)..............WIN (2/6)

MIA @ BOS (2/13), IND (2/15), TOR (2/16).................WIN (2/6)

LAL @ ORL (2/13), CHA (2/14), CLE (2/16)...............WIN (1/6)

LAC @ OKC (2/22), NO (2/23), LAL (2/25).................WIN(1/6)

UT @ DAL (2/23), IND (2/25), DET (2/26)

SAC @ ORL (2/23), CHA (2/25), MEM (2/26)

BOS @ DEN (2/24), LAC (2/26), UT (2/28)

NY @ CLE (2/25), MIA (2/27), ORL (3/1)

ATL @ GS (2/25), POR (2/27), DEN (2/28)

DAL @ WAS (2/26), TOR (2/27) PHI (3/1) (decision made later on this series)

Comments: I will post the March schedule in a few days.
 
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Posted: #167
did anyone play sac @ orlando? whats everyone's opinion on the optional rule (eliminate series if home team of 1H of game 1 is a 5 pt. favorite or more)?
 
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Posted: #168
NBA ROAD SYTEM
HALVES / ATS
FEB 2011

POR @ DEN (2/2), IND (2/4), CLE (2/5)........................WIN (2/6)

DAL @ NY (2/2), BOS (2/4), CHA (2/5).........................LOSS (0/6)

CHI @ POR (2/7), UT (2/9), NO (2/12)...........................WIN (1/6)

DAL @ SAC (2/9), DEN (2/10), HOU (2/12).................WIN (2/6)

POR @ TOR (2/11), DET (2/13), MN (2/14).................WIN (2/6)

SA @ WAS (2/12), NJ (2/14), CHI (2/17).....................WIN (5/6)

PHI @ MN (2/12), MEM (2/15), HOU (2/16).................WIN (3/6)

DEN @ MEM (2/13), HOU (2/14), MIL (2/16)..............WIN (2/6)

MIA @ BOS (2/13), IND (2/15), TOR (2/16).................WIN (2/6)

LAL @ ORL (2/13), CHA (2/14), CLE (2/16)...............WIN (1/6)

LAC @ OKC (2/22), NO (2/23), LAL (2/25).................WIN(1/6)

UT @ DAL (2/23), IND (2/25), DET (2/26)....................WIN(2/6)

SAC @ ORL (2/23), CHA (2/25), MEM (2/26)...PENDING

BOS @ DEN (2/24), LAC (2/26), UT (2/28).................WIN(1/6)

NY @ CLE (2/25), MIA (2/27), ORL (3/1)

ATL @ GS (2/25), POR (2/27), DEN (2/28)

DAL @ WAS (2/26), TOR (2/27) PHI (3/1) (decision made later on this series)

Comments: I will post the March schedule in a few days.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #169
so today do we do cleveland even though there so bad!?
 
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Posted: #170
You could have used the same thought process on betting Denver @ home vs Celtics after Carmelo bolts for the Knicks.  Denver 1/6 win.  You almost can't think about whose playin who with this system, you either play the system or go back to handicapping.
 
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Posted: #171
i think you need some capping..if you play these systems they are all losers... you need some capping and filters to make them work
 
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Posted: #172
Nba road system
halves / ats
march 2011

pho @ bos (3/2), mil (3/4), okc (3/6)

cha @ den (3/2), lal (3/4), por (3/5)

chi @ atl (3/2), orl (3/4), mia (3/6)

ind @ okc (3/2), dal (3/4), hou (3/5)

mn @ det (3/2), phi (3/4), wa (3/5)

no @ mem (3/4), cle (3/6), chi (3/7)

gs @ phi (3/6), cle (3/8), nj (3/9)

por @ mia (3/8), cha (3/11), atl (3/12)

lal @ @ atl (3/8), mia (3/10), dal (3/12)

det @ sa (3/9), okc (3/11), den (3/12)

ut @ tor (3/9), mn (3/11), chi (3/12)

ind @ mn (3/9), tor (3/11), ny (3/13)

lac @ nj (3/11), wa (3/12), mem (3/14)

okc @ cle (3/13), wa (3/14), mia (3/16)

orl @ pho (3/13), lal (3/14), mil (3/16)

mn @ gs (3/13), ut (3/16), lal (3/18)

cha @ hou (3/16), okc (3/18), sa (3/19)

den @ atl (3/16), orl (3/18), mia (3/19)

phi @ lac (3/16), sac (3/18), por (3/19)

cle @ sac (3/16), por (3/17), lac (3/19)

bos @ hou (3/18), no (3/19), ny (3/21)

ind @ mem (3/19), ny (3/21), cha (3/23)

ut @ hou (3/20), mem (3/21), okc (3/23)

gs @ dal (3/20), sa (3/21), hou (3/23)

sac @ mil (3/23), ind (3/25), phi (3/27)

nj @ cle (3/23), orl (3/25), atl (3/26)

tor @ pho (3/23), gs (3/25), lac (3/26)

sa @ den (3/23), por (3/25), mem (3/27)

no @ ut (3/24), pho (3/25), lal (3/27)

wa @ den (3/25), gs (3/27), ut (3/28)

hou @ mia (3/27), nj (3/29), phi (3/30)

por @ okc (3/27), sa (3/28), no (3/30)

bos @ ind (3/28), sa (3/31), atl (4/1)

mil @ cha (3/28), tor (3/30), ind (4/1)

mia @ wa (3/30), mn (4/1), nj (4/3)

dal @ lal (3/31), gs (4/2), por (4/3
 
Prospect
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Posted: #173
Thanks Senor E
 
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Posted: #174
NBA ROAD SYTEM
HALVES / ATS
FEB 2011

POR @ DEN (2/2), IND (2/4), CLE (2/5)........................WIN (2/6)

DAL @ NY (2/2), BOS (2/4), CHA (2/5).........................LOSS (0/6)

CHI @ POR (2/7), UT (2/9), NO (2/12)...........................WIN (1/6)

DAL @ SAC (2/9), DEN (2/10), HOU (2/12).................WIN (2/6)

POR @ TOR (2/11), DET (2/13), MN (2/14).................WIN (2/6)

SA @ WAS (2/12), NJ (2/14), CHI (2/17).....................WIN (5/6)

PHI @ MN (2/12), MEM (2/15), HOU (2/16).................WIN (3/6)

DEN @ MEM (2/13), HOU (2/14), MIL (2/16)..............WIN (2/6)

MIA @ BOS (2/13), IND (2/15), TOR (2/16).................WIN (2/6)

LAL @ ORL (2/13), CHA (2/14), CLE (2/16)...............WIN (1/6)

LAC @ OKC (2/22), NO (2/23), LAL (2/25).................WIN(1/6)

UT @ DAL (2/23), IND (2/25), DET (2/26)....................WIN(2/6)

SAC @ ORL (2/23), CHA (2/25), MEM (2/26).............WIN(3/6)

BOS @ DEN (2/24), LAC (2/26), UT (2/28).................WIN(1/6)

NY @ CLE (2/25), MIA (2/27), ORL (3/1)..................WIN(1/6)

ATL @ GS (2/25), POR (2/27), DEN (2/28)......PENDING

DAL @ WAS (2/26), TOR (2/27) PHI (3/1) (decision made later on this series)
 
 
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Posted: #175
TONY 1 JUST SAID

Comments on the Dallas road series starting today (Sat)......

I have decided NOT to play this series and of course by not playing this series Was will cover the first half.

If you decide to play this series.......... GOOD LUCK!!!
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