NBA O/U Pick Documentation

Nice card GL and congrats

Thanks for the support. I took my favorite 3 and made this parlay CHA/UTA O 190, MIL/LAC O 189, TOR/IND _210 _U. I also raised my bet on den/nj u 205.f5 to make it ny big play of the night.

Back to a bad night at 2-4. On the bright side I had both wins in my top picks. Sorry about the nj/den game, I made it my big play because someone elseI follow picked it too. On to tonights games. 

Horrible night yesterday. 

Looks like it was a 5-4-2 night. First pushes of the thread. Finally updated the record. Hopefully I will have a chance on Monday to start running through the history to get this tightened up some. 

Keep up the Great Work CF82!   

I was updating my records and I noticed an error in my posting yesterday, the NOR/OKC line should have been 197.5 not 197. So that would have been a win, not a push. Of course I'm leaving it on the record here as a push, but on my personal records it will be a win. That's what I get for not paying attention. Just double checked my picks for tonight, lol. 

Not a bad day yesterday at 2-1. Fortunately I decided to bet them since there was only 3 and I got to watch the 2 full games on TNT. Stupid Heat letting the Magic come back at the end of the game like that cost me my second half bet on the Heat +3.5. But, other than that I went 4-0 on live quarters bets on that game. But lost the juice going 1-1 on Lakers/Spurs in game bets. Anyway on to today's card.

I think it was 7-5 last night, with both parlays hitting 2 out of 3. I really didn't like that NJ/DET over, but by the numbers it was good. Anyway, I'm running super late, so here's the picks.

ATL/WAS O 195
DAL/CHA O 188
POR/CLE U 196
LAL/NOR O 188.5
DET/MIL O 182
MEM/HOU U 206
DEN/MIN U 222.5
OKC/UTA U 206
CHI/GSW U 203.5

None of these games really stand out to me, but if I had to pick a quick favorite it would be the LAL/NOR o 188.5.

Sitting at 4-4 right now with the CHI/GSW game pending. It looks like it will stay under, but still a lot of time in the 4th quarter. On the bright side my quick favorite was right. Busy day tomorrow with early games, so I'll get them up now.

IND/NJ O 193
PHI/NY U 208.5
LAC/MIA U 201
ORL/BOS O 192

The worst part about posting them this early is the chance of the lines moving too much. But since this thread is more for documentation than anything else, I guess it will be ok.

A bad night at 1-3. Time is short today, so on to the picks.

BOS/CHA O 182.5
LAL/MEM O 194.5
MIN/NOR U 202
CLE/DAL U 206.5
HOU/DEN U 218.5
CHI/POR O 182
UTA/SAC U 199.5
PHO/GSW U 219.5

Looks like a nicd night at 6-2. Never had a chance to even start looking at any system refinement today, should get some time this week 

Finally got a chance to start doing some work. All I really accomplished today was putting some numbers into my spreadsheet, as I had fallen almost a full month behind on that with my laptop breaking down. I bought a new computer, and am on evening shift this month. So I should have some free time during the day while everyone else is at work and school. Hopefully by the end of this week I'll at the very least have some rough ideas for tweaking this.

Sick night at 2-5. I'll list all my picks the same as before, but gonna start making some secondary picks as well. For the secondary picks I just plan to put a letter behind the original pick, P for play it, F for fade it, and X to leave it. This is based on some preliminary results only that seem to have work out a little better. So I just thought I'd begin posting it for now while I work on other methods of refinement. Thanks for watching. 

Was just looking at something real quick and wanted to post to start documenting another possible method of refinement. The list corresponds directly to the list from the previous post.

U
U
U
O Double bet
U
U
O
U
O
U

The original system went 4-5, with the second set going 2-2. The third set went 6-4, but if I just bet where the 2 matched it would have been 2-2 as well, but it hit on the double bet. The double bet was the only total that I played, thankfully it hit just barely after a horrible first quarter by Cleveland.

Do many of you bet on quarters or halves while you're watching the game? I have to say, I've been doing pretty good with this. Last night I went 5-3, but it should have been 7-3, but unfortunately I got interrupted as I was making the bet on Den -2.5 and total under 56 for the 4th quarter last night. The last 2 nights that I did the quarters/halves I went 5-2 and 6-3. Just wanted to see how other people do with this. It seems easier to bet these as you get a nice feel for how the game is going, especially if you cap it to begin with. And I'm not a good capper by any means.

I was planning on posting the picks for tonight, but I guess I can't quite yet as I don't see the lines for 2 of the 3 games tonight. I'll try to post them later.

Lines posted, so here are the picks. Same as yesterday, original, secondary, third.

LAL/BOS O 187.5 / P / U
GSW/PHO U 218 / X / X
DAL/DEN U 210.5 / X / O

So, based on some numbers, my FEELING would be to bet this way, LAL/BOS O, GSW/PHO no bet, but lean to Over, and DAL/DEN O. Now to decide whether I really will bet this or not. Decisions, decisions. My gut tells me to go with my feeling plays, but my head says my gut is an idiot, lol.

Sorry I haven't had time to get the past two days picks posted. Results from the last day posted were a sad 1-2. I went back and ran the numbers for the two days I missed and on 2/11 I went 5-5, and 2/12 it was 5-3. I didn't get time to look through the secondary picks though. Here's what I have for Sunday.

MIA/BOS O 189.5

LAL/ORL O 195

DEN/MEM ???? NO LINE YET I'm gonna guess the line will be 212 or so, so I would say Under, but that's just a guess. If i get a chance I'll post back once I see a number.

LAC/TOR U 208

WAS/CLE U 207.5

POR/DET O 187

OKC/GSW U 218

SAC/PHO U 206

Have a great day!

Ok, so the line is at 210.5, and I'm gonna make it official as an UNDER. Enjoy a nice day of sports everyone.

O O U U U O U U
P P X F P X X X
O U U O O U O U

This is how the second and third plays work out. I'm already locked in my bet for the OKC/GSW O tailing JonnyMega. But I think I'm going to make the following plays myself.

O O X O U X X X

And I'll name MIA/BOS O 189.5. Best of luck everyone! Here's to a great Sunday!

I meant to say I'll name MIA/BOS O 189.5 my play of the day, lol.

GL cards!

Looks like it went 3-5, 0-4, and 2-6. I already looked at the second and third rounds for today so I'll go ahead and post them, but I would say after today, those are done, doesn't look like there is any promise in those. I also don't know how much longer I will continue the original picks either, as the last week hasn't produced very good results. By the looks of the way things have been going the past week, I won't have the time I thought I would for any refinement anytime soon. So, by the time I would probably be able to get into it, it would be pushing the end of the season. I'm no basketball expert, but I would imagine numbers will start getting out of whack come that time, as teams are doing everything they can to make the playoffs. So, I'll try to keep this posted daily until the All Star break, then re-evaluate it then. Thanks for the support up to this point! Hopefully, if nothing else, I'll be able to come up with something better in the off season. Until then, I highly suggest keeping a keen eye on DJ, Kreatture, MTP, and JonnyMega, as they have all been doing some great work!

122-111-2 Start of thread (52.4%)
189-154-2 Start of system (55.1%)

SAS/NJN O 191.5 / P / U
LAL/CHA     194 / ? / U
ATL/DET O 185.5 / X / U
LAC/MIL O 189 / P / U
POR/MIN U 202.5 / X / U
DEN/HOU U 222.5 / X / O

No line out for the LAL/CHA game yet, will post when I see it and have a chance.

Another bad night at 2-4(never got to post back, but looks like total was 185, and that would have made it an over for me). 

SAC/OKC U 208
UTA/PHO U 207

I'm not betting any of these, at least not without someone else picking them, lol. But I will say, this is probably the worst run I've had, so I'm thinking either tonight or tomorrow will end up with a winning night in here!