NBA OT OVER SYSTEM CHASE

yep Cleveland and Denver are now plays too, since they went into OT tonight. Will update it in the afternoon when the lines come out

Rob, do you have the success distribution for each step?. I mean (for example):

A: 40%

B: 30%

C: 20%

D: 10%

I try to obtain the unit progression that maximize the benefits.

That depend of both factors (unit for each step and success distribution for each step).

Sorry for some mistakes in my arguments

For those who are following

53-1 before this thread started

34-2 since being posted            87-3 overall record

Pending Series

TOR [A], MEM [A], CLE [A], DEN [A]

Games for today

TORONTO [A] / New Jersey - Over 198.5

Miami / MEMPHIS [A] - Over 188.5

CLEVELAND [A] / Charlotte - Over 191.5

DENVER [A] / Washington - Over209

I have those figures at home, just at work right now i will put them up later tonight

Amazing how MIA and MEM went in to OT and both will still finish in the 80's.

Wow we would have a chance with MIA-MEM if MEM could actually get a basket.  No points through 3 mins of the 2nd OT.  The rules are set up for scoring, how the F can they not get any points in 3 mins?  I don't get these "pro" teams sometimes.

Wow missed it by 1 basket.  Gotta love the NBA.  2 OT's and it still hits under.  Anyone know where we can get the crystal balls the books use?

Rudy Gay lived up to his name tonight and Randolph shot like ass. 


On to game B with 3 of them Rob, GL.

For those who are following

53-1 before this thread started

35-2 since being posted            88-3 overall record

Pending Series

TOR [B], MEM [A] [B], DEN [A], MIA [A]

Games for today

Washington / TORONTO [B] - Over 205

MIAMI [A] / Dallas - Over 184.5

Rob, something about the success distribution that I asked?

Thanks!

P.S: Incredible Miami-Memphis yesterday in 2 OT keep the under!!

For those who are following

53-1 before this thread started

37-2 since being posted            90-3 overall record

Pending Series

MEM [A] [B], DEN [B], OKL [A], NY [A]

Games for today

MEMPHIS [A] [B] / New Jersey - Over 193.5

Boston / DENVER [B] - Over 198

OKLAHOMA [A] / Minny - Over 201

semaper here are the numbers you wanted

41 a bet wins

22 b bets wins

16 c bets wins

11 d bets wins

For those who are following

53-1 before this thread started

41-2 since being posted            94-3 overall record

Picked up 4 more series wins tonight. 2 perfect nights in a row, lets try for another one on Monday night

Pending Series

NY [A], SA [A], DET [A], UTA [A], POR [A]

Games for today

Milwaukee / NEW YORK [A] - Over 206.5

Atlanta / UTAH [A] - Over 197

 

Thanks for the info rob

I guess so that numbers don't includes the last night perfect results, right?

If that is correct the update distribution are:

41 + 2 = 43 A bet wins

22 + 2 = 24 B bet wins

16 C bet wins

11 D bet wins

I will try to do some calcs in order to build an optimal mount bets proportion

 

Knicks total went up 5 pts to 209...I'm scurred.

yeah those numbers dont count last night

rob,

if the A bets are at 43 wins out of 97, why not take the under in the first game after overtime ... that would put you 54 wins out of 97 (55.6%)  and no need to chase ... did you have info in your research that led away from that ??? just wonderin'

enjoy the thread ... nice work !!!

anna31204 

that is something to take into consideration. the reason why i took the Over option for this they had better numbers going back to the 07-08 season, what i mean is less system losses. when i started to post on here the Overs had 1 system loss and the unders had 3, so thats why i decide to take the Over

For those who are following

53-1 before this thread started

42-2 since being posted            95-3 overall record

Pending Series

NY [B], SA [A], DET [A], POR [A]

Games for today

NEW YORK [B] / Boston - Over 197

PORTLAND [A] / New Jersey - Over184.5

DETROIT [A] / Sacramento - Over 196.5

Rob, sorry for my bad english but I will try explain to you my points of view about your system.

I done some calcs about the optimal wager mount distribution for each step (A,B,C,D) in your system and then I found some interesting data:

1) The system's theorical yield assuming bets mount like the typical aritmetic progression (A=1, B=2, C=4, D=8) with flat success distribution (4 picks winning: one in A, one in B, one in C and one in D) and no loss is 32.3%

2) The system's real yield assuming the typical aritmetic progression and the results until last night (A=45, B=25, C=16, D=11 and 3 losses) is 25.6%

3) My discover is that if we increase the bets mount aritmetic progression to multiple 3 instead of 2 (A=1, B=3, C=9, D=27) then the yield grow up to 40.9%

4) The handicap is that you need a more deep bankroll, since in one lose system you go down 40 bankroll units instead of 15 bankroll units of the multiple 2 system

I wait your comments...

 

For those who are following

53-1 before this thread started

44-2 since being posted            97-3 overall record

Pending Series

SA [A], DET [B],

Games for today

Oklahoma / SAN ANTONIO [A] - Over 193.5

DETROIT [B] / La Clippers - Over 189

So your saying to make even more profit from this we should be betting 1, 3, 9, 27???

Yep, around 15% plus of the yield

So, rob, one question: Do you think that system applies for another sports (NHL, MLB, etc)? It's will be successful too?

 

 

robwalton,

two nice hits last night w/ ny (c) and san antonio (b) ... 4 o.t. games last night too, so looks like no down time waiting for a new series ... good luck ...

anna31204

 

thanks anna, and sorry guys I didnt have internet access for most part of the early evening and i couldnt put the plays that were for last night.