Went 2-0 tonight, picked up another 3 system wins. 7-2 in the last 3 days with the plays. Be back tomorrow around noon to update everything
Rob,
Very powerful stuff and we have created some good mechanical systems. There is logic to this as well, that being a thing in motion (a trend) tends to stay in motion.
The reason this method is all over the internet is that it is difficult to back test. I prefer "walk forward" testing in real time as back tests are subject to optimization (curve fitting) and tester bias. Your totals method has performed very well on games not used in your testing and/or observation. This is the proof that there is something very efficacious going on (the system works).
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Quote Originally Posted by robwalton:
Went 2-0 tonight, picked up another 3 system wins. 7-2 in the last 3 days with the plays. Be back tomorrow around noon to update everything
Rob,
Very powerful stuff and we have created some good mechanical systems. There is logic to this as well, that being a thing in motion (a trend) tends to stay in motion.
The reason this method is all over the internet is that it is difficult to back test. I prefer "walk forward" testing in real time as back tests are subject to optimization (curve fitting) and tester bias. Your totals method has performed very well on games not used in your testing and/or observation. This is the proof that there is something very efficacious going on (the system works).
Rob, sorry for my bad english but I will try explain to you my points of view about your system.
I done some calcs about the optimal wager mount distribution for each step (A,B,C,D) in your system and then I found some interesting data:
1) The system's theorical yield assuming bets mount like the typical aritmetic progression (A=1, B=2, C=4, D=8) with flat success distribution (4 picks winning: one in A, one in B, one in C and one in D) and no loss is 32.3%
2) The system's real yield assuming the typical aritmetic progression and the results until last night (A=45, B=25, C=16, D=11 and 3 losses) is 25.6%
3) My discover is that if we increase the bets mount aritmetic progression to multiple 3 instead of 2 (A=1, B=3, C=9, D=27) then the yield grow up to 40.9%
4) The handicap is that you need a more deep bankroll, since in one lose system you go down 40 bankroll units instead of 15 bankroll units of the multiple 2 system
I wait your comments...
why do that when you can just start betting the unders
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Quote Originally Posted by semaper:
Rob, sorry for my bad english but I will try explain to you my points of view about your system.
I done some calcs about the optimal wager mount distribution for each step (A,B,C,D) in your system and then I found some interesting data:
1) The system's theorical yield assuming bets mount like the typical aritmetic progression (A=1, B=2, C=4, D=8) with flat success distribution (4 picks winning: one in A, one in B, one in C and one in D) and no loss is 32.3%
2) The system's real yield assuming the typical aritmetic progression and the results until last night (A=45, B=25, C=16, D=11 and 3 losses) is 25.6%
3) My discover is that if we increase the bets mount aritmetic progression to multiple 3 instead of 2 (A=1, B=3, C=9, D=27) then the yield grow up to 40.9%
4) The handicap is that you need a more deep bankroll, since in one lose system you go down 40 bankroll units instead of 15 bankroll units of the multiple 2 system
I wait your comments...
why do that when you can just start betting the unders
Just by plays you've posted for basically the month of Feb and March to date when two teams have played each other both as "plays", so both teams played an overtime game within the last 4 games and neither team went over since the OT game the OVER?UNDER is 2-5
When it was the first game since the OT game for both it was 1-1
such a small sample size....but leans towards the under in the next game
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FYI....take it for whats its worth....
Just by plays you've posted for basically the month of Feb and March to date when two teams have played each other both as "plays", so both teams played an overtime game within the last 4 games and neither team went over since the OT game the OVER?UNDER is 2-5
When it was the first game since the OT game for both it was 1-1
such a small sample size....but leans towards the under in the next game
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