NBA ML $$$ System ( Warining - Need Marbles)

Ok so you have the road team
Divide their wins on the road to how many games they played on the road

Now to the home team
Divide their home wins into how many games they played on the road

Example: 2009 end season results
Hypothetical play:

Atlanta Hawks
Home record was 31-10
31 wins
/
41 games played at home
=
.75

Indiana Pacers
Road record was 11-30
11 wins
/
41 games played on the road
=
.26


.76-.26=.50
Its a play on Atl on the ML no matter how steep it is

The magic # is must be 35 between both teams.
If 34, 33, or 32 or so, I suggest play at your own risk if you want
The parameters are strictly minimum at 35
When the # is at 60 or above between both teams I believe it has only lost once on the ML in 5 years
Most nights will have 1 to 3 plays maybe
Some nights no plays at all
Same formula works for the road teams too if the formula qualifies it to

Last year's record was 152-18
Huh 18 losses.............
Oh they must been on high ML's........
But.............
Most of those losses were on ML's around -110 to -300 or -400 or so
1 and the largest loss at the end of the year did lose -800 ML because Boston mailed it in
By then once April came around the system was having more losses
Ha......... That's the NBA for ya
It was advised to layoff the system towards the end of March to save on losses

And that record started in Dec.
And documented since Jan
Now it was also hedged with ML parlays and 6 to 12 point teasers to save on lossed units
Exact units I cannot say because I didn't have the marbles to play it
Some games were pounded big time with -1500 ML's to win 500 or so
But when you got Cle going 41-1 at home????????????
$$$$$$$ can be made
Check out NBA home and road records form last year

Other veterans of the game do vouch for this system too stating its proven over the years

Question for this year is when to start
Hmmm............. What if a star player is out..........
Whatever may come up is open to question maybe to add filters to eliminate losses
But its very simple - that's it
I tracked it last year
No need to spend a lot of time capping or using software
It will only complicate the wheel that has already been invented

GL to all

Guys.........
Just be careful with the JM V!1 & V2 NBA systems
My opinion Vegas might adjust the lines enough by a point or 2 on these games against our favor because of how much money was won on the A and B games
Just saying so go light to be careful
Buying the 3 points may not help either and cost us a lot of loot
If that it does bomb how about fading the other way maybe
Doesn't PSIC do something like that?
I'll be going small and possibly the modified A+B labouchere as the MM method in Kong's NHL thread

I figure to post here to remind us of a system that was successful in the past and we don't have to chase this one but need onions to play

All these different chase systems are getting played out but as long as they make money I got no problem with that

thx for posting this one.  I'm always looking for good systems to play.

do you think this would also work in Nhl?

Read this system in another forum.  As far as Vegas adjusting the lines, JM's system is old and they would of done that years ago, but the system still turns a profit, also not everybody in the world plays the JM system.  The A&B betting is not working in the NHL as 3 teams have already lost both A&B games, funny thing is for the 2 teams that had C bets so far they won.

If the systems not broke don't try to fix it.  Kind of hard to re-invent the wheel....

Hectar..........
Valid point though I was just saying cause of how many A games won last year. Thanks
True about the wheel........ Yes
Me personally I'm not risking all those units on the line doing the martingale or a 3 game labouchere. Too much juice - for my britches that is. Going this deep into sets with this much juice is not a good sign for me personally
Someone elsewhere is also doing a dog ML chase with the JM NHL to go with the original PL play for the dogs


JV....... Good question
If you also scroll down the thread a little you will see if you haven't already that I posted some NHL systems to track or back test
Hmmm........ That did cross my mind.
But then if similar parameters are used would OT losses be counted in too?
Would anyone be able to back test at least last year to see what we got?
Good news is that less juice would be involved instead of the NBA with lop siding match ups - but again this is all a gray area



Oh yeah.......... Everyone..........
I just looked over the original posting and noticed that I forgot to say also this works for the road team if the #'s qualify for it too.
Doesn't matter whether home or road if it qualifies......... Play it

I did post about the road teams.........
Oh well

for hockey does anyone know of any good software to make it easier to track this for hockey.   I'm assuming excel might work but i'm not that familer with how to set it up or what input to use.

can you give another example for end season 2009

thx

I think you need to clarify the opening explanation of how the system is determined. the example given doesn't match what the top 2 sentences state.

Here ya go
Just picked these out of thin air

3/10/09
Uta @ Ind

Uta  away record is 13-17
13 wins divided by 30 games played = .43

Ind home record is 19-12
19 wins divided by 31 games played = .44

.44 minus .43 = .01 that sucks no play (bad ex?)

This is the formula
Anything greater than .35 is a play on the greater team with ML only
No matter how steep
Question is when to start?
Maybe wait 10 or 20 games or so?
Was thinking some kind of fade reversing that # and playing the dog on the ML maybe - Hmmm.........

I'll PM where I got this

My bad - good point

The gist is to calculate the the away team's road winning % by dividing its road wins by the total of  road games played

Calculate the home team's home winning % by dividing its home wins by total home games played

Each of the differences subtract the lesser from the greater
If that # is less then .35 its a play
If not then no play
No other capping or trends or nothing needed

Gotta roll for now
Catch you around tomorrow for more on this

BUMP..................


Last year's record was 152-18
Huh 18 losses.............
Oh they must been on high ML's........
But.............
Most of those losses were on ML's around -110 to -300 or -400 or so
1 and the largest loss at the end of the year did lose -800 ML because Boston mailed it in
By then once April came around the system was having more losses
Ha......... That's the NBA for ya
It was advised to layoff the system towards the end of March to save on losses

And that record started in Dec.
And documented since Jan
Now it was also hedged with ML parlays and 6 to 12 point teasers to save on lossed units
Exact units I cannot say because I didn't have the marbles to play it
Some games were pounded big time with -1500 ML's to win 500 or so
But when you got Cle going 41-1 at home????????????
$$$$$$$ can be made

wait I am confused.. so do you only bet on the home team if the criteria is there?

how about giving an example of when you would bet on the away team. and what do you mean the play is on the greater team?
greater in terms of what?
and when should I start using this system. and I feel more often than not, you will be getting really bad moneylines, so is it worth it in the long run?

 

bet on the away team if nthe away team has the higher percentage of wins.  so for example  if  indiana had a winning road record of 75%  and utah  had a winning home record of 25%  subtracting the 2 percentages would be 50% and the play would be on indiana because indiana had the higher winning percentage.  start the system in the beginning of november.  my personal opinion is that it is worth it.

with so few losses this can easly be adapted to the 10% betting method.  If I decide to go with the 10% betting method this is how I would handle it.  I would start out with like a bankroll of like 200$  and take 10% of that  wich would be 20$  then my first bet would be 2$.  when I double my first 20$ my base bet would then be to win 4$ and try to double the 40$ leaving plenty of bankroll in tact just incase a couple games fail.

Hey jv040,
thanks for clearing up the part about the system and I think I know how it works now. How would you use it in the beginning of November? teams would have only played 3-4 games max. Is that enough data?

Also can you explain the 10% betting method in greater detail.
So would you continue betting $2 a game until you have won $20, and then you would proceed to bet $4 a game? How does that work exactly assuming I have a bankroll of $200?

Rm2673  
Read the thread
I stated road teams are a play too in the 1st post
And yes I also stated big time juice here
This ain't mommy's koolaid.
This is your uncle's spiked homemade juice
That's why I named the thread???????????
NEED MARBLES................. As in onions - balls - willing to risk a lot for each play
It takes money to make money!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The record is documented elsewhere and is a solid system for many years
Don't bite off more then you can chew
Chill on the sidelines 1st and watch how its done and if you like then welcome aboard pal - if not that's ok this isn't for you
JV up to you man to play right away - I wouldn't............
I don't advise it because the season needs time so we know what we're working with more accurately
The sooner the less accurate
I may wait til start of Dec at the earliest
No rush the $$$$$$$$$ will come


JV..... Better examples below of what you asked before

Example  2/25/09
Det @ Neo

Det road record  13-14
13 wins in
27 road games played

Neo home record 20-9
20 wins in
29 home games played

13 divided by 27 = .48 %
20 divided by 29 = .68 %

.68 minus .48 = .20 = no play

.35 is the qualifying #



3/13/09
Orl @ Was

Orl road record 23-10
23 wins in
33 road games played

Was home record 10-24
10 wins in
24 home games played

23 / 33 = .69 %
10 / 34 = .29 %

.69 - .29 = .40 = play Orl on the ML



BOL guys...........

montana max,
I appreciate your time in explaining this to me. But for instance, if you look at the ML for tonight's game between Charlotte and Boston, the ML is -700. If this game were in December for instance, and it qualified for the play, how much money are you going to lay down compared to a +185 ML for instance.

I think dec is a good starting month.   I was thinking about the 10% betting metthod but it depends on how steep the lines are. it might not be a bad idea if theres a bigger bankroll.  I think I'm just going with the labaurche this year so I get a good feel for what the average line is.

rm2673.........   
ML +185??????
ML -700 
Risk 7 units to win 1 unit
There will be games that will put hair on your chest risking round -1500 or so
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results but when the difference between both teams is .50 or greater it has only loss once in the past 5 years a trusted person stated and that was lt year with Bos -800 mailing it in at the end of the year
Refer to post #1 for MM tactics & hedging strategies to mitigate risk
The system states to win 1 unit no matter how steep
I know......... Unorthodox and stressing
But can't argue against its results
Whatever your BR may be just be wise and only risk what you're willing to lose
Me personally for dog plays in all sports I risk 1 unit to win whatever on a dog ML play - just me. AKA a form of flat betting


jv040............
Wise      
Get a feel and see how things go
To scratch an itch continue with last year's  home and road records for tracking and see what you get on the side maybe
Again just to gauge but if you do play it go very small
I'll still hold off


Busy with a lot going on but still an idea does come to mind with somehow fading this system in a way looking for dog ML's
Just another system to track on my plate damn't

Max,

Been reading your posts for a while, on SN's NFL as well as NHL.

Added you as a friend, wanted to PM you a quick question.

I'm losing brain cells reading the posts in here.

Good work boss. BOL.

i'm sorry but what do you mean hedging bets? is that same as parlaying?

Been reading your posts for a while, on SN's NFL as well as NHL.
Thanks yo.......
Hopefully at least you are gaining something out of them
That is how I got my weight up in this business
I like to thank those here and elsewhere who inadvertently helped me out by helping out others too
By sitting back and taking in how others go about things
I only been around for a few years and will always seek to continue being a student of the game by staying humble

I'm losing brain cells reading the posts in here.     
Thats means their working
Then stay away from SN's MLB thread from this past year
That will fry whatever you got left in a good way though
Easy money ain't that easy sometimes when we got to work our brains to then have the money work hard for us......... 
 

Hedging is an insurance play
Mainly driven from principles out of the investment world where they are keen. Sportsbetting is very similar to Wall st investing
Well for those who are successful can see it that way
Diciplined money management - specualting an outcome  - anaylizing and research - risk vs reward ratio - etc... etc... bla bla bla
I'm not a gambler but an investor using sports as my vehicle for now
After a while I will diversify my BR and get into forex and then other markets using similar dicipline
No capital gains taxes...........  
Some nights could have one play
One example is to ML parlay that win another play the next day or whenever on steep ML's so you can risk less
Same goes for the same night which could have 1or 2 or 3
With a record of 152-18  (documented) there was plenty of nights going undefeated so instead of risking say 7 to 1 one game you can parlay 2 or ML's and only risk say 3 or 2 to 1 as an example
To counter that maybe you can risk more or just chill and not get greedy
If 1 team loses then you lose the hedge bet but still you don't lose as much as 10-1 odds like I did on Phi Eagles at Oak them F*ckers losing 40 units alone - that was a gamble and I deserved it
Also you can tease the games down
But the odds differ pending how many points you tease and how many teams
Again they are not invincible either - you can lose them too
But at the end of the day the ML parlays and teasers do add up so when you do lose some games it doesn't hurt as much cause you got a build up of extra units on the side as insurance
I didn't have the BR or the balls to play it last year so I cannot say how many units it won
I can say the people running it were playing to 500 or so on lines like -1500 and so.
   They pounded them and won......... Yikes

Hector,

I agree with you 100 %