NBA Chase System (79-0 in 2013)

Question

I was looking online for NFL chase system ideas and came across a pretty good one. I decided to test it for NBA and it did pretty good last year. The idea is not mine, but I don't know who to give credit to. It may have already been used by someone here, so I apologize if I am sharing a system that someone has already shared. Here are the parameters:

- Find a team that has lost 3 straight both straight-up and ATS.
- Chase that team to cover ATS for a 6-game chase.

It went 79-0 with 6 series going to a 4th or 5th game. There are not many plays and one loss will take out all of the wins, but I wanted to let you all know about it anyway. It was intended for NFL, and it did well through the 2009 season, but I haven't backtested the last four years. I will do more backtesting for NBA, and will let you know how it goes. Below are the NFL results that I copied from another place. I didn't verify the results.

NFL System
2009: 16 - 0
2008: 14 - 0
2007: 15 - 0
2006: 21 - 0
2005: 17 - 1

Kababayan · Answer

I was looking online for NFL chase system ideas and came across a pretty good one. I decided to test it for NBA and it did pretty good last year. The idea is not mine, but I don't know who to give credit to. It may have already been used by someone here, so I apologize if I am sharing a system that someone has already shared. Here are the parameters:

- Find a team that has lost 3 straight both straight-up and ATS.
- Chase that team to cover ATS for a 6-game chase.

It went 79-0 with 6 series going to a 4th or 5th game. There are not many plays and one loss will take out all of the wins, but I wanted to let you all know about it anyway. It was intended for NFL, and it did well through the 2009 season, but I haven't backtested the last four years. I will do more backtesting for NBA, and will let you know how it goes. Below are the NFL results that I copied from another place. I didn't verify the results.

NFL System
2009: 16 - 0
2008: 14 - 0
2007: 15 - 0
2006: 21 - 0
2005: 17 - 1

Danrules24 · Answer

Interesting stuff. I took the liberty of backtesting for the NFL. If there were at least 4 games left after qualifying, I counted that. All pushes were counted as if the team didn't play.

2013: 20-0 (11A, 4B, 4C, 1D)
2012: 9-0 (5A, 2B, 2D)
2011: 18-0 (9A, 3B, 3C, 2D, 1E)
2010: 10-0 (4A, 4B, 2C)

Kababayan · Answer

Dan,Thanks for doing that.  I backtested NFL 2013, but it took me awhile to do it.  Do you use a database website to backtest quickly?  I also backtested for an NFL team wins SU &#x2B; ATS, chase for the team to lose.  In 2013 it went 18-0. Thanks again.

Kababayan · Answer

I should say, also, that I didn&#x27;t begin a new series if there were only two weeks left in the season after a team qualifies.

Ashrit1094 · Answer

This is very interesting!!! Will you be posting plays for this season? I would love to follow you!

Kababayan · Answer

I can&#x27;t guarantee that I will, as I am not that reliable to post. I&#x27;ll try and post when I can, but the system is pretty straight forward so anyone can figure out the plays.

Danrules24 · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;I actually just used the info here on covers. If you go to the NFL team pages you can look at historical records that include W/L, against the spread and O/U info - sort by year.

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

hey, i backtested the system where you fade a team who has won ATS & SU for 3 games. there had to be 4 weeks left after a team qualified.

2013: 16-0 (8A, 3B, 2C, 2D)

2012: 20-0 (8A, 11B, 1E)

2011: 15-1 (7A, 2B, 4C, 1D, 1F) (Loss on F at end of the season)

2010: 12-0 (8A, 1B,2C, 1D)

Kababayan · Answer

Thank you for doing the backtesting.

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

no prob. these are good ideas you&#x27;ve got. thanks for sharing.

tommyla · Answer

what is nba record for system

LetsDoThisYall · Answer

I&#x27;m very interested in doing this for NFL --Does anybody here know a simple way to track the 3 losses on both sides without having to go through each teams information in the "NFL" section like Dan said.Thanks

LetsDoThisYall · Answer

So, I&#x27;ve started making a spreadsheet for the 3 weeks of NFL that have started and i&#x27;m halfway done.What did you guys do when, say, a team entered a chase and inside that chase they won 3 game/ATS in a row or lost 3 game/ATS in a row?Did you just continue the system as normal?

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

well, besides just going back through on covers, you can go to killersports and do ppp:ATSL and ppp:L and pp:ATSL and pp:L and p:L and p:ATSL

i'm going to work on NBA after I finish my NHL (and NFL) stuff.

as for the 3 losses or 3 wins inside a chase, I would probably leave it the same. i'm not doing the win 3 in a row.

this week i see A game bets on TB and JAC. unfortunately. that's the worst thing about this system is having to bet on the worst teams...

i wonder what would happen if you chased a team to win ATS after 3 wins. i might backtest that. i'd rather do that against the bengals than fade them.

LetsDoThisYall · Answer

I agree with what you just said, I just filled everything out for NFL and got the same two upcoming plays, TB and JAX. Let me know what it turns out to be for the backtest with winning after 3 wins -- Sounds promising.

As far as the system goes, hopefully you can backtest that soon and i'm considering of making a twitter people can follow for this system, as i've already got a pretty solid excel sheet made for it from today.

jonny2k4 · Answer

Nice looking Fwd to it.

LetsDoThisYall · Answer

Has anybody backtested this for the NBA?

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

i will, after i finish nfl and some nhl stuff. i&#x27;m glad the season starts are staggered; there&#x27;s never enough time to get everything done.

LetsDoThisYall · Answer

Need help with any of it?  Feel free to send me a message, I&#x27;m available for an hour or two a day for backtesting.

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

oh thanks. it&#x27;s totally up to you though. my job allows me to do whatever i want, so i spend 8 hours a day backtesting stuff (or watching tv when i need a break). i should be able to get nfl (betting on the team who won 3 ATS &amp; ML) done tonight.anyone have any other ideas for nhl? i have my o/u system but that has typically only lasted 9-15 days. i want something season long.

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

okay, so first of all, it occurred to me (when i was almost done), that i should have counted any ML wins + ATS pushes as a do over in qualifying, like i do within actual chases, instead of a push stopping progress. i realize that that's dumb of me, but i'm not going to redo it unless you ask me to. from what i recall seeing, it would help though.

second, for this backtest, i have 2 sets of numbers. i backtested from killersports and from covers. the numbers are different. based on the killersports data i got 1 loss (win on G game).

third, i also tracked double dips separately, provided that A. the system won on A game, B. the team won ATS & ML, C. there were at least 4 games left in the season when the double dip started. however, there was 1 loss on D game due to running out of time, so there probably need to be more games left for the double dip. that will take out several wins, but still.

Covers (not including double dips)

2013 15-0 (8 A, 5 B, 1 C, 1 E)

2012 12-0 (6 A, 1 B, 2 C, 2 D, 1 F)

2011 15-0 (9 A, 4 C, 2 D)

2010 11-0 (5 A, 2 B, 3 C, 1 F)

Covers Totals

A 28 (52.8%)

B 8 (15%)

C 10 (18.9%)

D 4 (7.5%)

E 1 (1.8%)

F 2 (3.8%)

Killersports (not including double dips)

2013 14-0 (7 A, 5 B, 1 C, 1 E)

2012 12-1 (6 A, 3 B, 2 C, 1 D, 1 LOSS on G)

2011 16-0 (9 A, 1 B, 4 C, 2 D)

2010 12-0 (6 A, 2 B, 3 C, 1 F)

A 28 (50.9%)

B 11 (20%)

C 10 (18.2%)

D 3 (5.5%)

E 1 (1.8%)

F 1 (1.8%)

G 1 (1.8%)

Covers Double Dips

2013 7-1 (3 A, 2 B, 2 C, 1 LOSS on G)

2012 5-0 (1 A, 2 B, 1 C, 1 D)

2011 15-1 (9 A, 2 B, 2 C, 1 D, 1 E) (1 LOSS on D - end of season)

2010 5-0 (2 A, 2 B, 1 C)

Killersports Double Dips

2013 7-0 (3 A, 1 B, 2 C, 1 D)

2012 5-0 (2 B, 2 C, 1 E)

2011 14-1 (9 A, 2 B, 1 C, 1 D, 1 E) (1 LOSS on D - end of season)

2010 6-0 (2 A, 3 B, 1 C)

Total Covers Numbers (including Double Dips):

2013 22-0 (11 A, 6 B, 3 C, 1 D, 1 E)

2012 17-0 (6 A, 3 B, 4 C, 2 D, 1 E, 1 F)

2011 29-1 (18 A, 2 B, 5 C, 3 D, 1 E) (1 LOSS on D)

2010 17-0 (7 A, 5 B, 4 C, 1 F)

Total Killer Sports numbers (including Double Dips):

2013 21-0 (10A, 6B, 3C, 1D, 1E)

2012 17-1 (6A, 5B, 4C, 1D, 1E) (1 LOSS, win on G)

2011 30-1 (18A, 3B, 5C, 3D, 1 E (1 LOSS on D)

2010 18-0 (8A, 5B, 4C, 1F)

so yeah, taking the worst of it (killersports), it's 86-2, including double dips.

if you use a straight martingale system (bet to make 1 unit + what you lost previously), here are the numbers yearly with the losses on killersports including double dips:

2013: wager: 114.53 units, profit: 64.54 units (ROI: 56.4%)

2012: wgr: 199.74u, profit: -21.91u (ROI: -10.9%)

2011: wgr: 184.97u, profit: 72.13u (ROI: 38.9%)

2010: wgr: 143.65u, profit: 76.98u (ROI: 53.6%)

hope all that makes sense.

Ordinaryday6 · Answer

also found an nfl post-bye week strategy: when a team has a win percentage of over 50% going into the bye week, you bet the under to hit within 6 games after the bye. no losses in 7 years. i only used covers this time.

2013 14-0 (9A, 3B, 1D, 1E)

2012 10-0 (6A, 1B, 2D, 1F)

2011 19-0 (11A, 5B, 1C, 1D, 1E)

2010 17-0 (10A, 2B, 3C, 2D)

2009 14-0 (7A, 5B, 1C, 1D)

2008 16-0 (8A, 4B, 3C, 1F)

2007 15-0 (7A, 5B, 1C, 2D)

that's a total of:

58A (55.24%)

25B (23.81%)

9C (8.57%)

9D (8.57%)

2E (1.9%)

2F (1.9%)

that's a win on A or B 79.05% of the time, A-C 87.62%, A-D 96.19%

i also have the breakdown by actual bye week, but i don't really know how to analyze it.

NBA Chase System (79-0 in 2013)

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