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Hello everyone. I signed up recently to this forum to share my knowledge of sports handicapping. Hopefully we can all work together and continue to increase our edge vs. the books. Please feel free to offer any constructive criticism. I hope you find my contribution to this forum helpful.
My Winning Strategy consist of a few simple rules that I follow religiously. Even though they may not be completely optimal, they are tried and true, and at the end of the day, bring in profits. There may be a better method to bet on sports, but this is my winning strategy.
1. Manage your money properly. I personally flat bet 1% of my bankroll per play. I only bet singles. I will bet any price as long as it contains +EV. (positive expected value). After a 25% increase in my bankroll, I change my unit size. I never lower it. This method was introduced to me by Miller, and it's never failed me.
2. Track EVERY play you make and record your results. Record your wins and losses, your unit losses, your winning %, the price, etc... every piece of data. Once you track all your plays, you can see exactly where your strengths are. I love football, but I don't make profit at football. I hate basketball, but I make profit at basketball. So obviously, despite loving football, I bet a lot of basketball. You bet your edges, not your heart.
3. Don't get lazy. See why you lost, and why you won. Handicapping a game, using a starting pitcher emphasis lets say, but having the opponents bullpen give you the game after your starting pitcher throws meatballs gives you a false positive on a winning system. Make sure your wins are because you correctly handicapped the game. A loss is NOT a loss. Losing by 1 run or 9 makes a big different. Find out why so you can tweak and modify your handicapping skills to give you a more accurate assessment model.
4. Don't check the scores. Just review the data after the games if your a night hawk or the next day. Watch the accelerated game replays. You don't need the swings to affect your emotional health. You don't need to piss off your gf or wife during a movie because you are checking scores. It will seep into your personal life if you let it. Cap your games, and check the results later. Don't let it control your life. It is a job, not a life.
5. Reward yourself and be proud. Many people lose, so if you do manage to win and be successful be proud of yourself. Treat yourself to a nice vacation and take a break as you would with any other job.
These are my basic rules. I stick to them and I make profit. You may do things different, and still be successful, but this works for me. Good luck everybody.
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