Posted:
#801
That Colorado ML was nice!
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Modified Morrison NHL System
Posted:
#808
When a team goes on 3 or more game road trip, play that team for the first two games (if they win the first game, the series is done) on the ML. If you lose both, the series is done. Last year this simple system made about 60 units of profit, two years ago over a 100 units. I used two line labby.
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Posted:
#811
Quote Originally Posted by ejackson:
Juice, or vig.,is basically a comission the book charges for the privelage of making a wager. In the NFL, for instance, if you bet the spread on a game, you will pay $110 to win $100. In other wagers, like an NHL wager, the juice is factored in. If you bet a favorite, you will pay extra because that team is more likely to win. That is the downside of betting on heavy favorites. Let's say you bet on an NHL team heavily favored to win. Your bet comes with a lot of "juice", say -180. That means that in order to win $100, you have to put up $180. Overall, I've heard that at legitimate Las Vegas books charge about 4.55% "juice". That is one reason it is so tough to be a consistent winner at this game.You will have to excuse me, but i don't know what you mean with the "juice"? Sorry, i'm from overseas.
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Posted:
#813
Thanks for the explanation. Basically is pretty straight forward. Most of the time you are playing road dogs, so the odd varies from +100 to +200. Some times you play a road favourite - last year i think the biggest road fav was around -150, but that is more an exception than a rule. This system has its up and downs but its simple and its producing results.
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Posted:
#815
I don't know about a two game chase. I suppose somebody backtested the system and a two game chase doesn't produce results.
About -150 road fav? I went back to my spreadsheet and this is what i got. Last year i was writing down the lines for all system plays from october 8 to december 23. Than i quit for aboz 3 months and started again on march 10 to march 31. From 119 system plays i've got 30 road favs (once i played NJ +1,5 at -145) at average odds of -119. 89 system games were road dogs at average price at +139. The biggest road fav was TB -145 at NYI -and they lost, the biggest dog was ATL +214 at PHIL and they won.
I know that 3 months of info is missing but just for the info, here is a breakdown:
from -154 to -140 we were 3-1
from -139 to -130 we were 2-2
from -129 to -120 we were 4-1
from -119 to -110 we were 6-1
from -109 to -101 we were 3-7
from 100 to 109 we were 6-5
from 110 to 119 we were 6-8
from 120 to 129 we were 7-9
from 130 to 139 we were 1-12 (wow)
from 140 to 149 we were 4-6
from 150 to 159 we were 2-3
from 160 to 169 we were 2-1
from 170 to 179 we were 3-5
from 180 to 199 we were 3-3
from 200 to 214 we were 1-2
Like I said before - on a two line labby this system last year produced 62 units of profit, two years ago over a 100 units.
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