All Forums | Systems & Strategies

MLB Underdog System

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 2872
Posts: 19
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 657
Posted: #1
Found another system that I was thinking about tracking. Not sure what forum it originally came from but the posters name was Azmat. I just saw some notes about it on the Rx. The system goes like this...
  • Dog of +100 to +150
  • No play if dog lost 3 in a row
  • No play if fav won 3 in a row
  • No play if going against top 20 ERA pitcher  
The notes on said that in 2005 it was 362-388 (+43.4 units), and 2006 went 204-197(+46.4 units). Not sure if this was from flat betting or a labourchere.

Not sure how to back test this system as it would be hard to determine which pitchers were in the top 20 at the time the games were played.

Has anyone seen or used this system?
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2004
Posts: 683
Posted: #2
i have seen it posted here at covers but that all i know about it and would be very hard to back test it too
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 657
Posted: #3
Do you remember who posted it or how it did?
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 657
Posted: #4
Only 1 way to see how this would work. Going to try this with the labourchere to see if it has any potential. Since I cant back test this I'm going to start out small with $10 units.

2 plays qualify today.

5-5-5-5

COL (+132)     10/13.20

WAS (+135)    10/13.50




 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 3172
Posted: #5

interesting,lets see how it will evolve.does the dog has to be an open odds dog or a close odds dog?there are teams which open at -115 and move to +107 and the opposite.what in these cases?at least you can backtest it taking in consideration the 3 of 4 rules you are writing!!

I ve searched for a Home Dog System,take each Home Dog in a series betting at a maximum of 2 plays in the series and with odds at +100 at least.If bet A 1 U loses then bet B will be a 2 U play and you stop there the series is finished.If bet A wins you stop there and the series is done.With this way on 2008 the profit was +18.07 and on 2009 +30.92.This season so far is somewhere between -5.00--6.00 but it is still early.

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 7146
Posted: #6

The Baseball Underdog System is based on a law of averages showing that, over the long term, MLB underdogs beat favorites about 4 games out of 9 (or 44% of the time). Even with moneyline odds on underdogs earning you better than even money -- meaning that at +130 you lay $10 to win $13 -- you need to rack up better than a record of 4 wins and 5 losses every day to make substantial profits.

 

For example, let’s assume you bet $10 on each of 9 underdogs today, with each getting +130 moneyline odds. If you win 4 games, you profit $13 each or $52 total. But the $50 you lose when 5 favorites win gives you a slim $2 profit overall. So instead of simply betting on the underdogs in every game, you must weed out about two-thirds of the games by following my 3 simple criteria:

 

on error resume next plugin = ( IsObject(CreateObject("ShockwaveFlash.ShockwaveFlash.4"))) Text>is this basically the same system ??