MLB System Thought

I was reading another thread started last April that only lasted a couple weeks. Can't remember the name. It seemed to be winning but for whatever reason it quickly stopped. It was something like playing home teams with Win % over ~ .475 to win a game when they are playing a 3 or 4 game series. It was NOT a chase, but there was talk of doing a labby line(s) with it. So I want to make it clear, my system is a take on this one I'm mentioning.

I got to thinking about it and looked at last season from a simplier approach, but with the same idea.

Why not focus on the teams that are 500 or better almost every year. I didn't do any research, just went on some gut feelings. Started with the AL and then quickly just added some NL teams. Clearly there are probably more NL teams you could add to the list. I used the following teams:

1. Boston
2. Yankees
3. Tampa
4. LAA
5. Minnesota
6. Chicago Whitesox
7. Texas
8. Detroit
9. Philly
10. St. Louis
11. Atlanta

Everytime one of these teams starts a 3 or 4 game home series against ANYONE, i'm going to play them to win 1 game. If they win game one, the series is done. If they lose game 1, bet them on game 2 and so on and so forth. For the 2010 season assuming i didn't make any mistakes, the numbers look like this:

• 394 Games
• 250 Wins
• 144 Losses
• Over 63% Win Rate
• Average bet size -137

This seems quite impressive to me. Playing these games with regular labby lines and NOT the aggressive approach would be very profittable and i don't think the lines would get out of hand. I may test one more season or look to add/delete teams.

Welcome any thoughts.

Struggle to see how the average line was -137 with all those home faves.

Here is the spreadsheet for the last years plays.

 

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AmpcIC7ruXrUdDRHMGpDUmxmQWUyQWNGTVJyRl9pc0E&hl=en&authkey=CMzXhuYG

do you have the record (and avg. odds) for the first game of all series?

So today, Yanks would be the play.

I am playing what i consider the top ~ 12 teams. 2 from each division. Yesterday I played:

• NYY (W)
• Cincinnati (W)
• St. Louis (L)
• LAD (W)

3-1

Today will be:

• Philly
• Texas

Good luck. Thanks for the info. I made it more stringent. I used 2011 projected standings from Accuscore and other sites and futures and averaged them out with 2010 & 2009. Also, taking out teams series that got swept last year. My top teams are:

ATL, PHL, SF, NYY, BOS, MIN, TB, CWS, DET, LAA. I'll play TB tonight. I didn't play the Phils since Houston swept them at home last series. Good luck again!

Thank Jekyll and GL to you. I am using what a couple magazines are projecting as the top 2 teams in each division. They are not picking great things from the Rays, so I am only using NYY and BOS from that division. There were definitly sweeps last year with some teams, but I am more concerned with overall win rate because  I am not chasing with a Martingale. I am using some Labby lines like the Rizz uses. I have 6 lines - 3 for the AL and 3 for the NL. Each line representing G1, G2 and G3.

• A1: 10 10 10 10
• A2: 10 10 10 10
• A3: 10 10 10 10

The National League looked like this when yesterday started because I lost $40 on St. Louis on day 1 and I split the loss onto N1 and N2(game2)

• N1: 10 30
• N2: 10 10 10 30
• N3: 10 10 10 10

2 winners yesterday with Texas and Philly, so the lines look like this for me today since we cleared the N1 line. Having said that, the Philly juice was very high and I got a little lucky.

• N1: 10 10 10 10
• N2: 10 10 10 30
• N3: 10 10 10 10

Game 2 of St. Louis today from the N2 line $60 to win $40

Record so far...

• G1: 5-1
• G2: 0-0
• G3: 0-0

After the loss on Saturday with the Cards in Game 2, I didn't have any confidence in them to score runs and decided to spread the $60 loss out over all the lines and be more conservative. Sunday started like this for me:

• A1: 10 15 10 15
• A2: 10 15 10 15
• A3: 10 15 10 15
• N1: 10 15 10 15
• N2: 10 15 10 25
• N3: 10 15 10 25

Laying $57 to win $35 on St. Louis in game 3 was a winner

Updated Record: (I am +$57)

• G1: 5-1
• G2: 0-1
• G3: 1-0

Updated Lines:

• A1: 10 15 10 15
• A2: 10 15 10 15
• A3: 10 15 10 15
• N1: 10 15 10 15
• N2: 10 15 10 25
• N3: 10 15 X X

Just put Monday's plays in:

• Yankees -150      $37.50 to win $25
• Texas -154          $38.50 to win $25
• St. Louis -160      $40.00 to win $25

Great work so far. Maybe drop St Louis until Wainwright returns.

I think Wainwright is out all season? It's the lack of hitting that is hurting the Cards right now, but I will keep an eye on them. Small profit last night.

Updated Record: +$67

• G1: 7-2
• G2: 0-1
• G3: 1-0

Updated Lines:

• A1:  X   X   X   X 
• A2: 10 15 10 15
• A3: 10 15 10 15
• N1: 10 30 10 30
• N2: 10 30 10 30
• N3: 10 15   X  X

Tusday (4/5) - trying to juggle the numbers to stay conservative but turn a profit and can't say I'm any expert in this area. Playing all games to win $40 (2 units).

• Phillies -190         $76 to win $40
• Cincy -165           $66 to win $40
• St. Louis -150      $60 to win $40

I am doing a similar system but I am using the top 6 based on book odds against the bottom 10 again based on the book odds and playing the run line giving me mostly + money on the juice. also using a 1 3 7 chase strategy 

1 unit loss = 3 unit wager 3 unit loss = 7 unit wager on a 3rd bet you win your 4 units back plus 3 .... 1 for each game played.

if you loose all 3 well what can I say you lost 11 units and move on. it's a true 11 units usually cause your getting plus money. 

I have been looking at this method and just ran acrossed yours.

I am always playing yankees RL at home. They finished 52-29 at home last year. 48 of the 52 wins were by 2 or more runs. Possible something to look into to get some more value a couple games a week

Interesting guys, but I don't want to do any chases - just not for me. Having said that, I'm looking at the overall record of (10-4) and not happy with the way I'm running my Labby Lines. Of course if Philly had showed up last night, it would be a different story and a huge win. Somehow I feel happy though because St. Louis got a win.

Updated Record: +$71

• G1: 8-3
• G2: 1-1
• G3: 1-0

I'm going to run my own lines off line and post plays and results. For the record, my unit amount started at $20 and still is that amount, so I'm up 3.55 units.

Only one play today(4/6) - Philly in Game #2 against the Mets. Low odds today with the #5 starter for Philly goes against the Mets #1.

Phillies -133         $40 to win $30 (1.5 units) 

Good luck. Blanton is 3-1 lifetime with a 2.64 ERA in seven starts against New York.

Thanks Jekyll - I live about an hour from Philly and the weather has really sucked the last 2 nights. I was next door to the Philly game Tuesday night at a concert and it flat out sucks for night baseball. I have to wonder why with a 7-2 lead in the 5th Charlie stuck with Blanton until it was tied up? Hard to believe the Cards have lost both starts with Carpenter. They return home on 4/19 and I'm not sure if I'm going to drop them from the system or not - will look at the box scores for them the next 12 days and make a decision.

But the good news, I got the win tonight (+$30)

Updated Record: +$101

• G1: 8-3
• G2: 2-1
• G3: 1-0

So, I stand at exactly +5 units after 1 week. One series starts on Thursday 4/7 (Sox Home Opener) and Five series on 4/8.

4/7 Chicago White Sox -115  $29 to win $25 (2:00 ET Game)

Sure thing. Thanks for saving me from TB. They are awful. I'm up only 2 units, but I'm following your teams now minus the Cards. I guess Charlie thought Blanton could get out of it himself. The only thing I can think of is that all the guys he used last night except Bastardo, historically get hit by the Mets pretty well. Since Halladay is pitching today, it surely wasn't due to bullpen fatigue. Hey, a win's a win. Let's go White Sox!

Today was the start of the 2nd round of "Home Openers" for my top 12 teams. The White Sox made it look very easy, bringing the record for the Home Openers to 6-1 (St. Louis the only loser). Five series this weekend and I'm still trying to get a little back (slowly) before getting back to my base bet of $20.

1. San Francisco -158     $47.40 to win $30.00
2. Atlanta +104               $30.00 to win $31.20
3. Detroit -167                 $41.75 to win $25.00
4. LA Angels -125           $31.25 to win $25.00
5. Boston -124                $31.00 to win $25.00

Updated Record: +$126 (+6.3 Units)

• G1: 9-3
• G2: 2-1
• G3: 1-0

Let's see how the day plays out with the 0-6 RedSox and going against the Phillies after they put up 7, 10, 11 runs against the Mets. First game is Boston at 2:00 ET

1. San Francisco -158     $47.40 to win $30.00 
2. Atlanta +104               $30.00 to win $31.20
3. Detroit -167                 $41.75 to win $25.00
4. LA Angels -125           $31.25 to win $25.00
5. Boston -124                $31.00 to win $25.00

Updated Record: +$206 (+10.3 Units)

• G1: 13-4
• G2: 2-1
• G3: 1-0

4/9 LA Angels -107 $21 to win $20

Updated Record: +$226 (+11.3 Units)

• G1: 13-4
• G2: 3-1
• G3: 1-0

4/9 LA Angels -107 $21 to win $20

Back on Monday

Updated Record: +$226 (+11.3 Units)

 

4/11 - One Early Game Chicago White Sox -135 1 Unit

Monday 4/11 (0-5) -6.3 units

Updated Record: +$120 (+6 Units)

• G1: 13-9
• G2: 3-1
• G3: 1-0

Detroit Game 2 @ 1:00 and a bunch later tonight. Haven't figured out my Labby Lines. Probably the Tigers to win 1.5 units. Will look at the rest of the games today.

I don't have time to post everyday, so I'm only going update this when I have time. I made up almost all my losses from 4/11 on 4/12, going 5-1. A few random thoughts...I am not chasing, but adjusting my bets after losses...meaning I'm somewhat using aggressive labby lines, but using my own discretion when i get cold feet with higher bets and high lines. I feel confident I can make some $$$ on this thing and I don't want to take a big hit with a big bet on a -270 line at any point. Sooner or later a team will get swept and a chase on some of these high lines will kill you. Boston is our problem child this week, losing 2 in a row to a shit team. I had them -150 on the first loss and about -175 yesterday and I see them about -150 again today. IF you were chasing you would have +22 Units, but laying 10.5 units today to win 1 unit on the Boston Series, having lost 1.5 units on the first game and about 4.5 units on the second game. Here are the teams I'm playing right now and I'm not going changing anything as of now.

1. Boston
2. Yankees
3. Cincy 
4. LAA
5. San Francisco
6. LAD
7. Chicago Whitesox
8. Texas
9. Detroit
10. Philly
11. St. Louis
12. Atlanta

Updated Record: +$224 (+11.2 Units)

• G1: 14-9   (56%)
• G2: 7-2     (77%)
• G3: 1-0     (100%)

Yankees are a Game 1 today and Boston is a game 3. Played all games yesterday to win 1.64 units and doing the same today.

Just realized that the Yanks are now a 2 game series with the rainout on Tuesday. So I am NOT playing the Yanks and the series will not count in the record keeping. I did not look at any numbers from previous years for 2 game series.