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MLB RPI SYSTEM

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Posted: #1026
Quote Originally Posted by irage:

The Dirty Sanchez strikes again. I hate that guy, one of the most over-rated QB's in the league. Schuab on the other hand is consistent and accurate. However I digress, pre-season bets are for suckers. Even if you get a few games right it's only luck your running on. There is no skill involved in capping pre-season.



I would have to disagree that pre-season bets are for suckers.  The problem most people have is they bet the better team and they don't look at what they need to.  It is simple.  You look for managers who typically play to win in the pre-season, how many veterans are on the QB roster, and if they have more motivation than other teams.  I have done typically well the last few years capping pre-season games, but its a different beast than looking at regular season games.  I'm 9-4 YTD for week won with over $600 won.  I post my plays in the NFL forum if you want to check it out.  

I started checking this thread out, as it was something similar what I was looking into for MLB.  It is a great system and MLB has screwed me from week to week to consistently make money.  

Good luck to you and hope we all kill the books in MLB / NFL / NCAA this year!
 
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Posted: #1027
Any A games tomorrow? Det's juice is so high at -255.
 
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Posted: #1028

Quote Originally Posted by TommyD75:

B2w One question with the unofficial plays. Do we chase them as well or just play them tonight only?

Chase those series also.

 
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Posted: #1029
NYY ATL CUBS MIL NYM


DET OAK

 
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Posted: #1030
Should we play ATL and MIL again tomorrow bettor along with DET and OAK or just DET and OAK?
 
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Posted: #1031

MONDAYS PLAYS. Just want to see all those money bags. I don't normally write this stuff! Irage, update the record!

DET
OAK
NYY  Official game
NYM
MIL  
CHC
ATL

 

Plays for TUE:

Unofficial plays: No Official plays!!!! PHI would have been but az is playing good ball too.

MIL "A Game"
PHI "A Game" az SP should get shelled in this one. I think this an OVER game also.
DET "B Game"
OAK "B Game"

 
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Posted: #1032

Quote Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

Should we play ATL and MIL again tomorrow bettor along with DET and OAK or just DET and OAK?

I don't like that series between atl/sf. I'm glad ATL come back against the "BEARD" tonight. SF is struggling but their pitching can shut down anyone at anytime. Please feel free to play it, I think I'm done with that series.

 
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Posted: #1033
Quote Originally Posted by bettor2win:

I don't like that series between atl/sf. I'm glad ATL come back against the "BEARD" tonight. SF is struggling but their pitching can shut down anyone at anytime. Please feel free to play it, I think I'm done with that series.



I was actually scared of playing it again. They were just lucky they got back.
 
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Posted: #1034
Quote Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

Any A games tomorrow? Det's juice is so high at -255.
My book has em @ -270. MFKR!!!

I know its a little late in the season to post this BUT whenever you have high juice like thisa and a stud pitcher like verlander always make sure you DO NOT choose "ACTION" playing ur bet. Only play the stud pitcher to start. who cares if the other team swithes pitchers right b4 gametime. But if DET swithces pitchers then ur locked in @ high juice w/probably a relief pitcher starting.  I dont always do it like this, because I forget, but try.
 
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Posted: #1035
Can somebody update the record of both official and unofficial plays? I'm curious as to see the overall success thus far.
 
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Posted: #1036
Quote Originally Posted by bettor2win:

My book has em @ -270. MFKR!!!

I know its a little late in the season to post this BUT whenever you have high juice like thisa and a stud pitcher like verlander always make sure you DO NOT choose "ACTION" playing ur bet. Only play the stud pitcher to start. who cares if the other team swithes pitchers right b4 gametime. But if DET swithces pitchers then ur locked in @ high juice w/probably a relief pitcher starting.  I dont always do it like this, because I forget, but try.


Phillies also have high juice. So are you playing DET tomorrow bettor? I'm waiting for my book to open. -255 is only at covers. Phillies was at -225 a while ago and now they are -234.
 
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Posted: #1037
Took MIL A ML and OAK B ML. Thinking about DET and PHI whether I should take the ML or the RL. What are your thoughts bettor and irage?
 
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Posted: #1038
I rarely take the RL.
 
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Posted: #1039
Quote Originally Posted by bettor2win:

I rarely take the RL.


Oh yeah. Still remembered our last PM before.
 
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Posted: #1040

This is NOT correct.

In the event of a pitching change prior to the game, the Runline and Totals are deemed 'No Action'. Wagering on the Moneyline you have two options:


1- Action: a straight up bet regardless of who throws the first pitch. Odds will be adjusted according to the opening price of the new pitcher.

*****YOU ARE NOT STUCK WITH A CRAPPY PITCHER AT A BIG LINE***


2- Listed: you will receive the risk amount back if the listed pitcher you have select does not start the game. You may specify whether one or both pitchers must throw the first pitch.

 
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Posted: #1041

This is NOT correct.

In the event of a pitching change prior to the game, the Runline and Totals are deemed 'No Action'. Wagering on the Moneyline you have two options:


1- Action: a straight up bet regardless of who throws the first pitch. Odds will be adjusted according to the opening price of the new pitcher.

*****YOU ARE NOT STUCK WITH A CRAPPY PITCHER AT A BIG LINE***


2- Listed: you will receive the risk amount back if the listed pitcher you have select does not start the game. You may specify whether one or both pitchers must throw the first pitch.

 
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Posted: #1042

This is NOT correct.

In the event of a pitching change prior to the game, the Runline and Totals are deemed 'No Action'. Wagering on the Moneyline you have two options:


1- Action: a straight up bet regardless of who throws the first pitch. Odds will be adjusted according to the opening price of the new pitcher.

*****YOU ARE NOT STUCK WITH A CRAPPY PITCHER AT A BIG LINE***


2- Listed: you will receive the risk amount back if the listed pitcher you have select does not start the game. You may specify whether one or both pitchers must throw the first pitch.

 
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Posted: #1043
Quote Originally Posted by bettor2win:

My book has em @ -270. MFKR!!!

I know its a little late in the season to post this BUT whenever you have high juice like thisa and a stud pitcher like verlander always make sure you DO NOT choose "ACTION" playing ur bet. Only play the stud pitcher to start. who cares if the other team swithes pitchers right b4 gametime. But if DET swithces pitchers then ur locked in @ high juice w/probably a relief pitcher starting.  I dont always do it like this, because I forget, but try.

This is NOT correct.

In the event of a pitching change prior to the game, the Runline and Totals are deemed 'No Action'. Wagering on the Moneyline you have two options:


1- Action: a straight up bet regardless of who throws the first pitch. Odds will be adjusted according to the opening price of the new pitcher.

*****YOU ARE NOT STUCK WITH A CRAPPY PITCHER AT A BIG LINE***


2- Listed: you will receive the risk amount back if the listed pitcher you have select does not start the game. You may specify whether one or both pitchers must throw the first pitch.

 
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Posted: #1044
ARG, sorry about multiple posts.
 
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Posted: #1045
Does somebody here actually chase DET? The juice is outrageous and MIN bats scares me. I think I'm gonna change the chase with NYY or MIL.
What do you guys think? Please throw in some advices.
 
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Posted: #1046
Quote Originally Posted by speedemon:

Does somebody here actually chase DET? The juice is outrageous and MIN bats scares me. I think I'm gonna change the chase with NYY or MIL.
What do you guys think? Please throw in some advices.


Yea, I'm not chasing DET either.
 
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Posted: #1047
Quote Originally Posted by craig9887:


I would have to disagree that pre-season bets are for suckers.  The problem most people have is they bet the better team and they don't look at what they need to.  It is simple.  You look for managers who typically play to win in the pre-season, how many veterans are on the QB roster, and if they have more motivation than other teams.  I have done typically well the last few years capping pre-season games, but its a different beast than looking at regular season games.  I'm 9-4 YTD for week won with over $600 won.  I post my plays in the NFL forum if you want to check it out.  

I started checking this thread out, as it was something similar what I was looking into for MLB.  It is a great system and MLB has screwed me from week to week to consistently make money.  

Good luck to you and hope we all kill the books in MLB / NFL / NCAA this year!


I appreciate your comment, but I stand behind my claim. I have never seen anyone consistently win at pre-season. I challenge you to keep a documented record in the a NFL thread and record a 60% or better win record. If you consistently cap pre-season, many people will be interested, including me and I will retract my statement.
 
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Posted: #1048
Quote Originally Posted by robbypark:

Can somebody update the record of both official and unofficial plays? I'm curious as to see the overall success thus far.


BETTOR2WIN MLB RPI SYSTEM
2011 Record 66 - 1 - 0
2010 Record 74 - 1 - 0
2009 Record 76 - 2 - 0

A Game Wins: 46
 "A" games are first bets won

B Game Wins: 17
"B" games mean you lost your "A" bet and you need to double up on that team that lost.

C Game Wins: 5
"C" games mean you have lost both A and B and need to triple up on that team to make money on them.

Unofficial Plays: 15 - 0


SYSTEM
The premise here is simple. Good teams Beat bad teams more often than bad teams beat good teams. This a chase system.
Please read first page of this Post to understand the system completely. And read this page too.

MLB RPI system in a nutshell. The RPI tends to tighten as the season progresses, so post all star game I use different numbers.
1. This is a series chase. I DO NOT chase after a 3rd straight loss in a 4 game series. IDK why, but I don't. You can if you like.
2. How to pick series. Pre all star game: check the upcoming series. We will use tomorrows games/series as an example. Check the ESPN RPI rankings.
If any team is the visiting team and has an RPI of over 50 points or more over the home team they are playing, take the visiting team for a series chase.
If any team is the home team and they have an RPI of 42 points or more than the visiting team, take the home team for a series chase.

FILTERS
1. If the lower RPI has been playing significantly better baseball over the last week or so, do not play the series.
2. Losing streaks. Big losing streaks by better RPI team, don't play series.
3. Teams going in obvious opposite directions in the W/L column, I will take the series even if off a Point or max 2 on the RPI.
4. Injuries. Watch how the teams play for a few days then decide to take a series if a good player has been hurt. The Angels lost Kendry Morales and went on a 10 game winning streak last year. Go figure, so watch.Another note, in a 4 game series, if, and ONLY if the team you bet on for the series wins the FIRST game of a four game series, start the series over the next day as a new series. Basically, we would be banking they will win one of the next 3 as well.
5. Teams bellow the .500 mark need to be evaluated before a play is created.

JUICE
This system does come with some juice, but remember a WIN is WIN. Use LABBY and MARTINGALE ...depended on the outcome of a four game series. First game. LABBY will make up for losses, so I advise using the LABBY. Also, with the high juice in this system, you can only play one other system.



RPI VALUE
VISITOR = 40 - 42 RPI (depending on strength)
HOME = 35 RP


July 4 - PITTSBURGH - 132 (41) WIN
July 5 - WASHINGTON -124 - (36) WIN
July 6 - PITTSBURGH -115 - (??)  WIN
July 7 - BOSTON -154 - (H41 "A" Game)  WIN
July 8 - BOSTON -198 - (H41 "B" Game) WIN
July 9 - ALL STAR BREAK
July 12 - PITTSBURGH +100 (44) WIN
July 18 - BOSTON -134 (V52) WIN
July 18 - PHILADELPHIA -185 (V66) LOSS
July 18 - SAN FRANCISCO -127 (H32) WIN
July 18 - WASHINGTON -113 UNOFFICIAL WIN
July 19 - PHILADELPHIA -155 (V69 B GAME) WIN
July 22 - BOSTON -136 (H50 A GAME) WIN
July 22 - YANKEES -172 (H43 A GAME) WIN
July 22 - PHILADELPHIA -185 (H55 A GAME) WIN
July 22 - TAMPA BAY -102 (V42 A GAME) LOSS
July 23 - PHILADELPHIA -137 (H55 A GAME) WIN
July 23 - SAN FRANCISCO -134 ("B" GAME) UNOFFICIAL WIN
July 23 - TAMPA BAY -118 ("B" GAME) LOSS
July 24 - TAMPA BAY -102 ("C" GAME) WIN
July 25 - YANKEES -190 (H56 "A" GAME) WIN
*July 25 - BOSTON -270 (H61 "A" GAME) LOSS
July 25 - ST. LOUIS -230 (V46 "A" GAME) WIN
July 26 - BOSTON -175 (H61 "B" GAME) WIN
July 29 - YANKEES -190 (H47 "A" GAME) LOSS
*July 29 - PHILADELPHIA -270 (H41 "A" GAME) WIN
July 29 - MILWAUKEE -176 (H54 "A" GAME) WIN
July 29 - BOSTON +100 (V42 "A" GAME) LOSS
July 30 - YANKEES -220 (H54 "B" GAME) WIN
July 30 - BOSTON -150 (V42 "B" GAME) WIN
*Aug 01 - PHILADELPHIA -270 (H44 "A" GAME) WIN
Aug 06 - MILWAUKEE -208 (H52 "A" GAME) WIN
Aug 08 - BOSTON -113 (V48 "A" GAME) WIN
Aug 08 - ARIZONA -180 (H51 "A" GAME) LOSS
Aug 08 - PHILADELPHIA -159 (V56 "A" GAME) WIN
Aug 09 - ARIZONA -187 (H51 "A" GAME) WIN
Aug 12 - ATLANTA -136 (H43 "A" GAME) WIN
*Aug 12 - PHILADELPHIA -267 (H46 "A" GAME) LOSS
Aug 12 - BOSTON -145 (V46 "A" GAME) WIN
Aug 15 - YANKEES -151 (V58 "A" GAME) WIN
 
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Posted: #1049
Quote Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

Took MIL A ML and OAK B ML. Thinking about DET and PHI whether I should take the ML or the RL. What are your thoughts bettor and irage?


I love the RL, I like it for Detroit, but haven't pulled the trigger yet, something not sitting right for me, so I will look for something else like Tampa RL first game, looks better.

MIL looks good to me.
OAK looks good to me.
PHIL no way, I like the OVER here, but I won't touch that game.


 
 
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Posted: #1050
Scratch that Tampa RL is at -150, simply not worth the risk.

OAK the only play I really like now. BAL RL is at -170 which tells me that sharps believe O's are gonna get some hits, the question is can A's capitalize on the pitching errors.
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