Martingale vs. Flat betting -- Supereagle vs. dj_destroyer

LOL... you need to stop taking it so personal supereagle -- it's not like I invented the statistics or the probabilities associated with martingale... that's just what they are. You can reap up for days on the logistics of what you're doing and yes, if you're really good (lucky), you can beat the odds but the odds are that you bust before you even double your bankroll... but the odds can be beat and that's the goal of capping. My only argument is that you (an amateur) shouldn't be selling a fatalistic system... But whatever, we'll have our little competition and we'll agree to disagree. 

Dude, I promise Im not taking this personal.  Actually, I thought you were.  Is there a chance, just a chance, that the methodology for my selections could give me better odds than say a 50/50 coin flip?  Seriously.

On a 50/50 coin flip, what are the odds of 7 heads in a row from the front end?  My calculations may be wrong, but I calculate it to be 0.78% chance.  Is this wrong?

On any given pick, assuming the books are right, you have a 52% chance to lose. Put that percentage to the power of 7 and you get 1.02% -- so the odds of you losing on your first seven plays is about 1 in 100.. but the more you play, the higher the chance of busting.

Gonna lock this in because I only see the price getting worst:

White Sox [-120] $120 to win 100

DJ, answer #27

Yup... you could have a selection method that produces better than 50/50 results. Do you...? That's another question.

Lets just sit back and see what happens.  If you are right then so be it.  I just have an extreme amount of confidence in my methods of making these selections that I am willing to ride this to the grave.  I really believe I can outperform the odds.  I am not naive as to think I will never lose 7 in a row, but I really believe that my pick methods along with a money management strategy will keep me moving forward. 

Explain to me how, if the book has the line right, we only have a 48% chance of hitting.  Why isnt that a straight 50/50 proposition? IE: Cowboys -3 vs Giants, either it will cover or it wont.  Are the lines ever really that far off and if so does that ever really happen often enough to matter? 

Kelly criterion is not flat betting because stakes are adjusted according to confidence.  Both Martingale and Kelly criterion are similar and riskier forms of money management than flat betting.

It's not 50/50 because of the vigorish.

3-4 (42.8%) -$42.2

USA [+164] $40 to win $65
White Sox [-120] $120 to win 100
Phillies/Jays U9 [-105] $105 to win 100
Red Sox [-142] $142 to win 100
Padres/Marlins U7 [-120] $120 to win 100
Reds [-133] $133 to win 100
Rockies/Angels O9.5 [-110] $55 to win 50

Big card, big wins... Destroy the Books!

06/26/10

Series 1 Balance $803.33
Series 2 Balance $796.76

Series 1 Level 1 play on Braves
$3.25 to win $3.01 Winner
Series 1 Balance $806.34

Series 1 Level 1 play on White Sox
$3.26 to win $2.61 Winner
Series 1 Balance $808.95

Series 2 Level 2 play on Brewers
$9.72 to win $6.80 Loser
Series 2 Balance $787.04

Total Balance $1595.99

 

Hey DJ, we are on the same page now.  I knew you had to win 52% to break even on money.  I was talking about whether you win or lose a pick is 50/50. 

 

5-0 on the big money plays, 0-2 on the small money plays... I should just stick with my confident plays only.

+$405 on the day 

Huge day yesterday, congrats!

 

Today I had a S1 Level 1 Over 8 +138 in Braves game

and S2 Level 3 on Red Sox +108

No plays for me today, I enjoyed the sunshine and girls at the park.

8-6 (57.1%) +$362.8

I have a small soccer parlay for tomorrow taking both the fav's...

Netherlands, Brazil $50 to win 70

8-6 (57.1%) +$362.8

Jays/Indians O8.5 [-106] $25 to win 23.6 
Mets [+100] $25 to win 25
White Sox [-123] $123 to win 100
Giants [-106] $106 to win 100
Dbacks [+155] $25 to win 38.75

Soccer parlay still pending Brazil.

Did anyone see the Dbacks implode in the bottom of the 9th?! I'm in shape for a bad night after the soccer parlay was nice to me this morning.

9-10 (47.4%) +$234.80

Giants [-106] $106 to win 100


Adding this soccer parlay for a few bucks:

Japan +0.5, Portugal +0.5 [+230] $20 to win 46

9-11 (45.0%) +$128.80

Have this parlay still pending:

Japan +0.5, Portugal +0.5 [+230] $20 to win 46

Had S1 Level 1 on White Sox             Winner
Had S2 Level 2 on Over in Reds game Winner

Balance $1639.90 (+$39.90)

 

so the 1st one 2 five gazillion gets what? bragging rights? 

15-16 (48.4%) +$371.0

+$242.2 yesterday despite only going 6-5 SU. Again, the big money plays fair much better than the lower plays. Gonna try and not hand it all back today.

Athletics/Orioles O8.5 [-123] $123 to win 100
Mets [-109] $109 to win 100
Braves -1.5 [+126] $50 to win 63
Rangers/Angels O9.5 [-123] $50 to win 40.65
Cubs/Pirates U9 [-123] $12.3 to win 10
Rockies [+124] $10 to win 12.4
Jays -1.5 [+136] $10 to win 13.6
Dbacks/Cards O9.5 [-106] $10.6 to win 10

20-19 (51.3%) +$654.05

+283.05 on the day. ONCE AGAIN, the big money plays are strong. Won't have any plays for today (Thursday) as it is Canada Day and I will be celebrating! Have a good one