Lets Try This

Alright so im sure people have thought of this before but screw it.  So in mlb you can pair runline with underdog moneyline and bet so that you're sorta arbing but not really.  You lose if the favorite wins by a single run. 

Hou blows em out time for play 2.

New bankroll: 2621.50, net +21.50
New Base unit: 2621.50 / 26 = 100.82

Play #2 5/27/14
SD vs ARI, (1) SD ML +118, (2) ARI -1.5 +160
Bet 1: 54.84 to win 119.55
Bet 2: 45.98 to win 119.55

Fair Enough?!

How do you pick which game you play?

I guess a couple things can be done, picking the game with the highest o/u total would be a starting point as it would hypothetically allow for a game with a larger margin than 1 run. This may already be factored into the lines however so idk thats why im testing it real time. You could also do some handicapping and select a team that is listed as an underdog on the moneyline but you think has a good chance of winning.

I notice that the progression must also be changed since i wanna win about .2 of my base unit each bet placed. I think a total bankroll of around 3500 will be enough for three straight losses which im skeptical is enough but we'll see if it busts by the end of the season.

Updated starting bankroll 3500
Current bankroll prior to play 2 - 3521.50.

Now that i think about it this just doesnt lend itself to a chase system.. by the third bet you'd have to stake way too much...still i think this approach has potential if you could comeup with certain criteria to filter out 1 run games
Something to think about...

I think a bankroll of about 6000 will be enough to handle three losses so that will be the new test bankroll.

Philly covers so 3-0 so far
Bankroll: 6060.95, net: + 60.95
New base unit = 101

Will update with play 4 soon prolly the sf vs stl game 5/29/14

SF +121 STL -1.5 at +165

55.07 to win 121.71
45.93 to win 121.71

Eaaaaasy money

Sergio freaking Romo pulls off the save, giants grab the win good stuff...

Note: Ive been putting "to win" by which i mean you will receive that after the win...

Play #5

(1) Tex (ml, +160) vs (2) Wash (-1.5, +131) 

1: Bet 47.69 to receive back 124
2: Bet 53.68 to receive back 124

Total wagered: 101.37 will profit 22.63 as long as washington doesnt win by exactly one run...

LEggooo

Eaasy winner washington wins by 7

No losses yet, starting roll was 6000 currently at 6105.29

New base unit: 101.75

Play #6: (1) Pit ml +133 vs (2) La -1.5 at +154
 Bet 1: 53.07 to receive 123.65
 Bet 2: 48.68 to recieve 123.65

Total wagered: 101.75 will profit 21.90 as long as dodgers dont win by exactly one run...

YOu do like making money, right?!? Lets get it

Wow this is dumb. For obvious reasons given probability and risk and return on investment.... Ok I said it.....but now having said that, I always like interesting attempts at systems and I like that you prefaced everything with "I'm sure this has been done but screw it...."

I'm going to root for you and hope you make a small profit and quit while you're ahead. I will say this. You waited until all the one run games occurred, which they did during the first month and a half at a record rate. So I like your chances to do well for a short time.

 

By the way, saying "Wow this is dumb," is not an insult to you. Just a friendly way of trying to evaluate this system. Good luck and win some

Haha of course...the risk is high return not great but lol look at all these chase systems that inundate this forum...lets not think that all of them are outstandingly successful 

Play #7 6-1-14

Play #8 6-2-14

Play # 9

Ytd: +171.80

Phi ml at +171 and Was -1.5 @ +115

45.50 and 57.35 respectively

To receive 123.31 either way

Profit will be +20.45

I wouldn't chase this. Accept the loss when it comes and move on to the next game. You're only going to lose around $100 with a loss. You've already have more than that in profit. No need to chase and never be able to recover from a bad streak. It's a long season.

Gotcha...might have to reconsider but ill tackle that once a loss happens

Stupid question, I'm usually pretty good with numbers, but I just cannot figure out how to determine what to bet on each team is that the profit is equal no matter who wins. I'm sure it's something really simple, but I just can't figure it out. What's the formula?

Yea dude the bets are divided in such a way that there is the profit either way as long as the favorite does not win by exactly one run... 

Ytd: +$203.73

New base unit (total wager) : 103.40

Play 11

New wager 103.69

Yts: +243.36

I have seen this tried before. Couple 1 runs games will beat you up