1. Tex (-135) to win 2.7 units (only a 2 game series...will not
count towards series record) 2. Phi (-125) to win 2.7 units 3. Col
(-125) to win 4.5 units (best value out of these plays) 4. SF (-115)
to win 3 units
***Results from May 24***
1. Cinci (-170) to win 2 units----win
Total for May 24: 1-0, +2 units
***Notes***
Nice win by Cinci. We have the dreaded SF Giants on the board
today. I think they'll win one of these but we are talking about a team
that has scored just 1 more run than I have since last Thursday. This
is our second day of being slightly aggressive with our units, but it's a
good spot with all the small favorites.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 41-28, -8.5 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 23): 23-2
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Tuesday, May 25 MLB Series System Picks
1. Tex (-135) to win 2.7 units (only a 2 game series...will not
count towards series record) 2. Phi (-125) to win 2.7 units 3. Col
(-125) to win 4.5 units (best value out of these plays) 4. SF (-115)
to win 3 units
***Results from May 24***
1. Cinci (-170) to win 2 units----win
Total for May 24: 1-0, +2 units
***Notes***
Nice win by Cinci. We have the dreaded SF Giants on the board
today. I think they'll win one of these but we are talking about a team
that has scored just 1 more run than I have since last Thursday. This
is our second day of being slightly aggressive with our units, but it's a
good spot with all the small favorites.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 41-28, -8.5 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 23): 23-2
Good Luck tonight, just wondering if you're able to share your thoughts on a couple of these games tonight.
Are the Colorado and San Fran picks based more on the overall series, or these games tonight?
This kid Kennedy has been amazing for Arizona and I think he offers good value as a live dog tonight. I'm not sold on Chacin yet.. what do you think?
Wellemeyer has been on the Fade list for awhile, and altho that pathetic offense is due for a couple of runs, they're up against a pretty good offense with a pretty hot pitcher.
You're going pretty big Units on these 2 plays, was hoping maybe to get some more insight as to why.
Cheers
0
Hi Lep,
Good Luck tonight, just wondering if you're able to share your thoughts on a couple of these games tonight.
Are the Colorado and San Fran picks based more on the overall series, or these games tonight?
This kid Kennedy has been amazing for Arizona and I think he offers good value as a live dog tonight. I'm not sold on Chacin yet.. what do you think?
Wellemeyer has been on the Fade list for awhile, and altho that pathetic offense is due for a couple of runs, they're up against a pretty good offense with a pretty hot pitcher.
You're going pretty big Units on these 2 plays, was hoping maybe to get some more insight as to why.
Sorry for the slow reply kreatture...been feeling a little under the weather the last couple days and haven't been on here much.
You were basically right, the picks from yesterday were based on the matchups and stats. I try to reserve my situational analysis for my units wagered and not necessarily the plays themselves. Much like you did yesterday with Milwaukee, I let the numbers find the plays and then make some decisions (I play RL blitz everyday by the way). I rely very heavily on the numbers, however, as I've found that I'll overthink things if I try to handicap. For example, I hated that San Fran play yesterday, but I knew 2 things: 1) the likelyhood of them getting swept at home by Washington was very small and 2) I wanted to get an extra unit from them while the risk was low (knowing Lincecum was going today).
With Colorado, my system numbers had them as a very strong play...coupled with what I've been saying about home teams being behind their average means that we play strong in this situation until home teams catch up. Also, another factor was the low line...I focus a lot on risk aversion, so you'll notice I tend to make my move when the risk is lower.
The last factor in both those plays was that I have my labby lines split into AL home, NL home, and road. The Cards and SF losses series losses a couple weeks back put a lot of weight on my NL home lines and I'm finishing off the recovery process. Both the big plays yesterday were NL home teams and finally those lines are back normal.
Leprechaun
0
Sorry for the slow reply kreatture...been feeling a little under the weather the last couple days and haven't been on here much.
You were basically right, the picks from yesterday were based on the matchups and stats. I try to reserve my situational analysis for my units wagered and not necessarily the plays themselves. Much like you did yesterday with Milwaukee, I let the numbers find the plays and then make some decisions (I play RL blitz everyday by the way). I rely very heavily on the numbers, however, as I've found that I'll overthink things if I try to handicap. For example, I hated that San Fran play yesterday, but I knew 2 things: 1) the likelyhood of them getting swept at home by Washington was very small and 2) I wanted to get an extra unit from them while the risk was low (knowing Lincecum was going today).
With Colorado, my system numbers had them as a very strong play...coupled with what I've been saying about home teams being behind their average means that we play strong in this situation until home teams catch up. Also, another factor was the low line...I focus a lot on risk aversion, so you'll notice I tend to make my move when the risk is lower.
The last factor in both those plays was that I have my labby lines split into AL home, NL home, and road. The Cards and SF losses series losses a couple weeks back put a lot of weight on my NL home lines and I'm finishing off the recovery process. Both the big plays yesterday were NL home teams and finally those lines are back normal.
1. Phi (-110) to win 4.8 units 2. TB (-150) to win 2.3 units 3a.
Cinci (-165) to win 1 unit 3b. Cinci RL (+120) risk 1 unit
***Results from May 25***
1. Tex (-135) to win 2.7 units------------win 2. Phi (-125) to win
2.7 units--------------lose 3.4 units 3. Col (-125) to win 4.5
units------------win 4. SF (-115) to win 3 units--------------win
Total for May 25: 3-1, +6.8 units
***Notes***
Don't look now, but if we get Philly and just one other win today we
are officially in the black. Nice recovery. +29.8 units in the last
11 days. I'm not surprised really because I know what this system
is capable of doing. I said this about 10 days ago...you can try, but
you cannot fight statistics. Home teams are STILL way behind where they
should be and we will continue to exploit that. Finally, the SF Giants
were in a giving mood. It's a good thing, b/c they are -260 today with
Lincecum on the mound. Let's clear this board today and get into making
some profits.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 44-29, -1.7 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 25): 26-2
Let's keep it going,
Leprechaun
0
Wednesday, May 26 MLB Series System Picks
1. Phi (-110) to win 4.8 units 2. TB (-150) to win 2.3 units 3a.
Cinci (-165) to win 1 unit 3b. Cinci RL (+120) risk 1 unit
***Results from May 25***
1. Tex (-135) to win 2.7 units------------win 2. Phi (-125) to win
2.7 units--------------lose 3.4 units 3. Col (-125) to win 4.5
units------------win 4. SF (-115) to win 3 units--------------win
Total for May 25: 3-1, +6.8 units
***Notes***
Don't look now, but if we get Philly and just one other win today we
are officially in the black. Nice recovery. +29.8 units in the last
11 days. I'm not surprised really because I know what this system
is capable of doing. I said this about 10 days ago...you can try, but
you cannot fight statistics. Home teams are STILL way behind where they
should be and we will continue to exploit that. Finally, the SF Giants
were in a giving mood. It's a good thing, b/c they are -260 today with
Lincecum on the mound. Let's clear this board today and get into making
some profits.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 44-29, -1.7 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 25): 26-2
1. Phi (-120) to win 3.2 units 2. SF RL (+125) risk 1.5 units
(DAY GAME!!!!) 3a. Bos (-180) to win 3.7 units 3b. Bos (+105) risk
1 unit 4a. TB (-165) to win 3.7 units 4b. TB (+120) to win 1 unit 5.
**special parlay** TB RL(+120) and Bos RL (+105) 1 unit to win 3.5
***Results from May 26***
1. Phi (-110) to win 4.8 units----------lose 5.3 units 2. TB
(-150) to win 2.3 units---------lose 3.5 units 3. Cinci (-165) to
win 1 unit---------win 3b. Cinci RL (+120) risk 1 unit----------win
1.2 units
Total for May 26: 1-2, -6.6 units
***Notes***
Won one but not the right one! Poor Phillies got blanked AGAIN!
That's 13 unanswered runs for the Mets. We gave back almost all our
winnings from Tuesday. Let's get them back today. Our focus will shift
to the Bos and TB series. Very high value for both but we'll have to
lay some chalk. I'll push hard on both those series so there could be
some big plays the next couple days if we can't win these A games.
Trying out a parlay on them both for the A game to see if we can pick up
some extra units. I won't do that very often but we might as well have
a little fun with it.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 45-31, -8.3 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 25): 26-2
Still pushing hard,
Leprechaun
0
Thursday, May 27 MLB Series System Picks
1. Phi (-120) to win 3.2 units 2. SF RL (+125) risk 1.5 units
(DAY GAME!!!!) 3a. Bos (-180) to win 3.7 units 3b. Bos (+105) risk
1 unit 4a. TB (-165) to win 3.7 units 4b. TB (+120) to win 1 unit 5.
**special parlay** TB RL(+120) and Bos RL (+105) 1 unit to win 3.5
***Results from May 26***
1. Phi (-110) to win 4.8 units----------lose 5.3 units 2. TB
(-150) to win 2.3 units---------lose 3.5 units 3. Cinci (-165) to
win 1 unit---------win 3b. Cinci RL (+120) risk 1 unit----------win
1.2 units
Total for May 26: 1-2, -6.6 units
***Notes***
Won one but not the right one! Poor Phillies got blanked AGAIN!
That's 13 unanswered runs for the Mets. We gave back almost all our
winnings from Tuesday. Let's get them back today. Our focus will shift
to the Bos and TB series. Very high value for both but we'll have to
lay some chalk. I'll push hard on both those series so there could be
some big plays the next couple days if we can't win these A games.
Trying out a parlay on them both for the A game to see if we can pick up
some extra units. I won't do that very often but we might as well have
a little fun with it.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 45-31, -8.3 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 25): 26-2
1a. Tor (-175) to win 2 units 1b. Tor RL (+120) risk 1 units 2a.
Yanks (-250) to win 2 units 2b. Yanks RL (-125) to win 2 units 3.
Detroit (-115) to win 4.9 units 4. Angels (+100) risk 4 units (Lee
on the mound but taking a shot) 5. SF (-140) to win 3.9 units 6.
Atl (-170) to win 3.5 units 7. SD (-155) to win 3 units 8. Philly
(+110) risk 4 units (yep, still a play. don't like it but sticking with
system.) 9a. Bos (-190) to win 5.3 units 9b. Bos
RL (+105) to win 2 units
***Results from May 27***
1. Phi (-120) to win 3.2 units--------------------lose 3.8 units 2.
SF RL (+125) risk 1.5 units-----------------------lose 1.5 units 3a.
Bos (-180) to win 3.7 units---------------------lose 6.6 units 3b.
Bos RL (+105) risk 1 unit----------------------lose 1 unit 4a. TB
(-165) to win 3.7 units---------------------------win 4b. TB RL
(+120) to win 1 unit--------------------------win 1.2 units 5. TB
RL(+120) and Bos RL (+105) Parlay: 1 unit to win
3.5-----------------lose 1 unit
Total for May 27: 1-4, -9 units
***Notes***
I never trust Dice K but not worried about the Sox getting one of
these. Would have liked to win that yesterday. We've had a tough 2 days. Philly gave us another
series loss as they did not score a run for the entire series! I'd love to know how often that happens. Probably once or twice in an entire season.
Many plays today and we are going aggressive on almost all these series...not because we are down, but because the stats are very heavily in our favor. (check my blog for explanation). I expect we'll clear 5 or (hopefully) 6 of these today, so tomorrow will be huge. Let's get it done.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 46-35, -17.3 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 25): 26-3
Hold on to your hats,
Leprechaun
0
Friday, May 28 MLB Series System Picks
1a. Tor (-175) to win 2 units 1b. Tor RL (+120) risk 1 units 2a.
Yanks (-250) to win 2 units 2b. Yanks RL (-125) to win 2 units 3.
Detroit (-115) to win 4.9 units 4. Angels (+100) risk 4 units (Lee
on the mound but taking a shot) 5. SF (-140) to win 3.9 units 6.
Atl (-170) to win 3.5 units 7. SD (-155) to win 3 units 8. Philly
(+110) risk 4 units (yep, still a play. don't like it but sticking with
system.) 9a. Bos (-190) to win 5.3 units 9b. Bos
RL (+105) to win 2 units
***Results from May 27***
1. Phi (-120) to win 3.2 units--------------------lose 3.8 units 2.
SF RL (+125) risk 1.5 units-----------------------lose 1.5 units 3a.
Bos (-180) to win 3.7 units---------------------lose 6.6 units 3b.
Bos RL (+105) risk 1 unit----------------------lose 1 unit 4a. TB
(-165) to win 3.7 units---------------------------win 4b. TB RL
(+120) to win 1 unit--------------------------win 1.2 units 5. TB
RL(+120) and Bos RL (+105) Parlay: 1 unit to win
3.5-----------------lose 1 unit
Total for May 27: 1-4, -9 units
***Notes***
I never trust Dice K but not worried about the Sox getting one of
these. Would have liked to win that yesterday. We've had a tough 2 days. Philly gave us another
series loss as they did not score a run for the entire series! I'd love to know how often that happens. Probably once or twice in an entire season.
Many plays today and we are going aggressive on almost all these series...not because we are down, but because the stats are very heavily in our favor. (check my blog for explanation). I expect we'll clear 5 or (hopefully) 6 of these today, so tomorrow will be huge. Let's get it done.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 46-35, -17.3 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 25): 26-3
1. Bos (-135) to win 7.5 2a. Angels (-190) to win 3 units 2b.
Angels RL (+110) to win 1.5 units 3. SD (-165) to win 5.1 units 4.
Detroit (-125) to win 6.5 units 5. TB (-140) to win 3.5 units 6.
Atl RL (+105) risk 1 unit
***Results from May 28***
1a. Tor (-175) to win 2 units--------win 1b. Tor RL (+120) risk 1
units----------win 2a. Yanks (-250) to win 2 units-----------win 2b.
Yanks RL (-125) to win 2 units-----------win 3. Detroit (-115) to
win 4.9 units-----------lose 5.6 units 4. Angels (+100) risk 4
units----------------lose 4 units 5. SF (-140) to win 3.9
units-------------win 6. Atl (-170) to win 3.5 units-------------win 7.
SD (-155) to win 3 units----------lose 4.6 units 8. Philly (+110)
risk 4 units-----------win 9a. Bos (-190) to win 5.3
units------------lose 10.1 units 9b. Bos RL (+105) to win 2
units-----------lose 2 units
Total for May 28: 5-4, -8.1 units
***Notes***
Very tough loss on the Red Sox...the only one that really
disappoints me out of this bunch. That was a 20 unit swing thanks to
Wakefield blowing it in the 4th. Now they have to face Greinke which is
not promising, but at least it keeps the line down. I had expected to
go straight Martingale on that series but now we're forced to back off. Today could make or break this system.
Sorry we haven't done better...I feel terrible about it as I know people
are following (albeit few). We will keep going forward no matter the
outcome. Let the weekend play itself out. Friday we won 5 as I expected, although I'd trade the Boston loss for any of
the others and we could have been positive units on the day. No chance
of getting into the black for the month now, but certainly can move back
towards the positive. Expected win ratio today is 3 out of 4, so let's
hope the Red Sox is one of them. We stay aggressive on them and
Detroit, but playing everything else straight.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 51-39, -25.4 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 25): 26-3
keeping the faith,
Leprechaun
0
Saturday, May 29 MLB Series System Picks
1. Bos (-135) to win 7.5 2a. Angels (-190) to win 3 units 2b.
Angels RL (+110) to win 1.5 units 3. SD (-165) to win 5.1 units 4.
Detroit (-125) to win 6.5 units 5. TB (-140) to win 3.5 units 6.
Atl RL (+105) risk 1 unit
***Results from May 28***
1a. Tor (-175) to win 2 units--------win 1b. Tor RL (+120) risk 1
units----------win 2a. Yanks (-250) to win 2 units-----------win 2b.
Yanks RL (-125) to win 2 units-----------win 3. Detroit (-115) to
win 4.9 units-----------lose 5.6 units 4. Angels (+100) risk 4
units----------------lose 4 units 5. SF (-140) to win 3.9
units-------------win 6. Atl (-170) to win 3.5 units-------------win 7.
SD (-155) to win 3 units----------lose 4.6 units 8. Philly (+110)
risk 4 units-----------win 9a. Bos (-190) to win 5.3
units------------lose 10.1 units 9b. Bos RL (+105) to win 2
units-----------lose 2 units
Total for May 28: 5-4, -8.1 units
***Notes***
Very tough loss on the Red Sox...the only one that really
disappoints me out of this bunch. That was a 20 unit swing thanks to
Wakefield blowing it in the 4th. Now they have to face Greinke which is
not promising, but at least it keeps the line down. I had expected to
go straight Martingale on that series but now we're forced to back off. Today could make or break this system.
Sorry we haven't done better...I feel terrible about it as I know people
are following (albeit few). We will keep going forward no matter the
outcome. Let the weekend play itself out. Friday we won 5 as I expected, although I'd trade the Boston loss for any of
the others and we could have been positive units on the day. No chance
of getting into the black for the month now, but certainly can move back
towards the positive. Expected win ratio today is 3 out of 4, so let's
hope the Red Sox is one of them. We stay aggressive on them and
Detroit, but playing everything else straight.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 51-39, -25.4 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 25): 26-3
I usually play my big favorites the night before so I almost missed this. O/N Pitching change for the Angels!!! Play 2b. is cancelled. No play on Angels RL!!! Play
is now 4.5 units on Angels ML at -130.
Leprechaun
0
********EDIT******
I usually play my big favorites the night before so I almost missed this. O/N Pitching change for the Angels!!! Play 2b. is cancelled. No play on Angels RL!!! Play
is now 4.5 units on Angels ML at -130.
Yeessss!! My first true hater!! Two horrible runs in just 3.5 weeks, barely been in the green and been below -25 units twice. I can't believe it took this long. Thanks man, you seriously just made my night!! I'm not even kidding. Good times.
Leprechaun
0
Yeessss!! My first true hater!! Two horrible runs in just 3.5 weeks, barely been in the green and been below -25 units twice. I can't believe it took this long. Thanks man, you seriously just made my night!! I'm not even kidding. Good times.
How ironic that you get your 1st official hater on your very best day of the season so far..
If he is following you.. you made him just over 13 Units today, I think??
I thought people were excited on winning days..
Hmmm.. or maybe he went broke on Friday's games.. in which case, that's his own fault for playing a System with less than the recommended Units (75!)
Anyway.. I would like to take this moment to "Officially" Welcome you to the Forum!
You've now passed your initiation period and are finally bringing misery to photo-less lurkers who can't do simple things like "read" and "follow instructions".. To everyone else, they will enjoy the profits to come in the months ahead.
"Here's lookin' at you, kid!"
Cheers
0
How ironic that you get your 1st official hater on your very best day of the season so far..
If he is following you.. you made him just over 13 Units today, I think??
I thought people were excited on winning days..
Hmmm.. or maybe he went broke on Friday's games.. in which case, that's his own fault for playing a System with less than the recommended Units (75!)
Anyway.. I would like to take this moment to "Officially" Welcome you to the Forum!
You've now passed your initiation period and are finally bringing misery to photo-less lurkers who can't do simple things like "read" and "follow instructions".. To everyone else, they will enjoy the profits to come in the months ahead.
I started to follow you on wed last week, read everything you wrote, started off bad but i stayed with your picks, you make alot of sense to me. First time I ever followed someone esles picks, but I lkie your logic behind it. The key is money management like you said. good luck and thanks for your hard work
Pete
He started following you on Wednesday, May 12th - when you were -8.9 Units Overall.. After today's results, you are only -11.88 Units Overall..
Seems like quite a cry of hatred for only losing -2.98 Units..
And who the heck are all these faceless accounts who always seemed to have just signed up, and they always have the same 2 friends.. Lou and Rizz, 2 of Covers main guys. Seems weird..
Anyway.. that's all for tonight.. I have to get up early to finish this VooDoo doll of Dallas Braden.. seems the Tigers need all the help they can get??
0
Quote Originally Posted by petertjm:
Hi Leprechaun
I started to follow you on wed last week, read everything you wrote, started off bad but i stayed with your picks, you make alot of sense to me. First time I ever followed someone esles picks, but I lkie your logic behind it. The key is money management like you said. good luck and thanks for your hard work
Pete
He started following you on Wednesday, May 12th - when you were -8.9 Units Overall.. After today's results, you are only -11.88 Units Overall..
Seems like quite a cry of hatred for only losing -2.98 Units..
And who the heck are all these faceless accounts who always seemed to have just signed up, and they always have the same 2 friends.. Lou and Rizz, 2 of Covers main guys. Seems weird..
Anyway.. that's all for tonight.. I have to get up early to finish this VooDoo doll of Dallas Braden.. seems the Tigers need all the help they can get??
Thanks k man. I really feel like part of the forum now. We live in a world where people like instant results and making a profit gambling is a VERY difficult and long process, so I understand there will be douche bags who will never get it. I'm admittedly a little frustrated with the way things have started but I'm not in this for one up or down week...this is a season long venture.
At least the guy had the chance to vent with 2 well thought out posts. Plus I had May 29 in my office pool for when somebody would go ALL CAPS AND CALL ME A JOKER IN THE SAME POST!! Awesome.
Alright, let's move on with our lives. I hope you finished that voo doo doll because we need this one today to be on the plus side for the week. No matter what happens today, it will be an awesome afternoon of beer, burgers, friends, and gambling. Rock on.
Leprechaun
0
Thanks k man. I really feel like part of the forum now. We live in a world where people like instant results and making a profit gambling is a VERY difficult and long process, so I understand there will be douche bags who will never get it. I'm admittedly a little frustrated with the way things have started but I'm not in this for one up or down week...this is a season long venture.
At least the guy had the chance to vent with 2 well thought out posts. Plus I had May 29 in my office pool for when somebody would go ALL CAPS AND CALL ME A JOKER IN THE SAME POST!! Awesome.
Alright, let's move on with our lives. I hope you finished that voo doo doll because we need this one today to be on the plus side for the week. No matter what happens today, it will be an awesome afternoon of beer, burgers, friends, and gambling. Rock on.
1. Bos (-135) to win 7.5----------------------win 2. Angels (-130)
to win 4.5 units--------------win 3. SD (-165) to win 5.1
units----------------win 4. Detroit (-125) to win 6.5
units------------lose 8.1 units 5. TB (-140) to win 3.5
units-----------win 6. Atl RL (+105) risk 1 unit--------------win1.1
units
Total for May 29: 5-1, +13.6 units
***Notes***
We won this battle but we are losing the war. Amazingly, we could
still end up positive for the week (but not overall) with a Tigers win
on today.
Everything has unfolded almost exactly as the numbers
predicted (including 5 series wins Friday and 3 series wins Saturday)
for the weekend. Home teams are 20-10 on the weekend and we
have 5 home teams poised to sweep today. Stats say at least 3 of those
will complete the sweep. I'll be playing them all, unofficially,
staggering my plays and units based on game start times and outcomes. It's a good angle to make a
few bucks today so I thought I'd throw that out there.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 56-40, -11.8 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 29): 35-3
get drunk,
Leprechaun
0
Sunday, May 30 MLB Series System Picks
1. Detroit (-115) to win 5.7 units
***Results from May 29***
1. Bos (-135) to win 7.5----------------------win 2. Angels (-130)
to win 4.5 units--------------win 3. SD (-165) to win 5.1
units----------------win 4. Detroit (-125) to win 6.5
units------------lose 8.1 units 5. TB (-140) to win 3.5
units-----------win 6. Atl RL (+105) risk 1 unit--------------win1.1
units
Total for May 29: 5-1, +13.6 units
***Notes***
We won this battle but we are losing the war. Amazingly, we could
still end up positive for the week (but not overall) with a Tigers win
on today.
Everything has unfolded almost exactly as the numbers
predicted (including 5 series wins Friday and 3 series wins Saturday)
for the weekend. Home teams are 20-10 on the weekend and we
have 5 home teams poised to sweep today. Stats say at least 3 of those
will complete the sweep. I'll be playing them all, unofficially,
staggering my plays and units based on game start times and outcomes. It's a good angle to make a
few bucks today so I thought I'd throw that out there.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 56-40, -11.8 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 29): 35-3
1. Angels (-105) to win 2 units
2a. Dodgers (-185) to win 1.6 units
2b. Dodgers RL (+110) risk 1 unit
3. Philly (+150) risk 1 unit
4. SF (+100) to win 1.5 units (Wow. Jimenez vs. Lincecum. Best 2 young
guns out there. Very afraid of Jimenez.)
5. Mil (+115) risk 2 units
6. Padres (-115) to win 4 units (VERY HIGH VALUE SERIES!!!)
7a. Detroit (-175) to win 1 unit
7b. Detroit RL (+115) risk 1 unit
***Results from May 30***
1. Detroit (-115) to win 5.7 units------------win
Total for May 30: 1-0, +5.7 units
***Notes***
Got the win from Detroit and ended the week up 4.4 units. You can't
complain about that. Home teams went 30-15 for the weekend and swept 4
series. Go back and look at my blog posts from Thursday/Friday...this was not
a surprise. Having 2 C games kept us from really cleaning up, but it
shows us what using stats can do to predict outcomes. We're right back
on the board with a bunch of plays today. There are several of these I
don't like so we'll tread lightly. For those of you in the USA, enjoy
your holiday!
****Record***
Overall SU record: 57-40, -6.1 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 29): 36-3
Keep moving forward,
Leprechaun
0
Monday, May 31 MLB Series System Picks
1. Angels (-105) to win 2 units
2a. Dodgers (-185) to win 1.6 units
2b. Dodgers RL (+110) risk 1 unit
3. Philly (+150) risk 1 unit
4. SF (+100) to win 1.5 units (Wow. Jimenez vs. Lincecum. Best 2 young
guns out there. Very afraid of Jimenez.)
5. Mil (+115) risk 2 units
6. Padres (-115) to win 4 units (VERY HIGH VALUE SERIES!!!)
7a. Detroit (-175) to win 1 unit
7b. Detroit RL (+115) risk 1 unit
***Results from May 30***
1. Detroit (-115) to win 5.7 units------------win
Total for May 30: 1-0, +5.7 units
***Notes***
Got the win from Detroit and ended the week up 4.4 units. You can't
complain about that. Home teams went 30-15 for the weekend and swept 4
series. Go back and look at my blog posts from Thursday/Friday...this was not
a surprise. Having 2 C games kept us from really cleaning up, but it
shows us what using stats can do to predict outcomes. We're right back
on the board with a bunch of plays today. There are several of these I
don't like so we'll tread lightly. For those of you in the USA, enjoy
your holiday!
****Record***
Overall SU record: 57-40, -6.1 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 29): 36-3
1. Angels (-105) to win 2 units 2. Philly (+125) risk 1 unit 3.
SF (-130) to win 2.8 units 4. Mil (+160) risk 2 units 5a. Yanks
(-225) to win 2 units 5b. Yanks RL (-120) to win 1 unit 6. Detroit
(-160) to win 3.6 units
***Results from May 31***
1. Angels (-105) to win 2 units----------------win 2a. Dodgers
(-185) to win 1.6 units-----------win 2b. Dodgers RL (+110) risk 1
unit-----------lose 1 unit 3. Philly (+150) risk 1
unit------------------lose 1 unit 4. SF (+100) to win 1.5
units------lose 1.5 units 5. Mil (+115) risk 2
units--------------lose 2 units 6. Padres (-115) to win 4
units------------win 7a. Detroit (-175) to win 1 unit---------lose
1.8 units 7b. Detroit RL (+115) risk 1 unit----------lose 1 unit
Total for May 31: 2-5, -0.7 units
***Notes***
Not really surprised with any of the outcomes from Monday. We just
lost a little. Slightly more on the line today. Let's see if Detroit can get their heads out of their asses.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 59-45, -6.8 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 31): 36-3
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Tuesday, June 1 MLB Series System Picks
1. Angels (-105) to win 2 units 2. Philly (+125) risk 1 unit 3.
SF (-130) to win 2.8 units 4. Mil (+160) risk 2 units 5a. Yanks
(-225) to win 2 units 5b. Yanks RL (-120) to win 1 unit 6. Detroit
(-160) to win 3.6 units
***Results from May 31***
1. Angels (-105) to win 2 units----------------win 2a. Dodgers
(-185) to win 1.6 units-----------win 2b. Dodgers RL (+110) risk 1
unit-----------lose 1 unit 3. Philly (+150) risk 1
unit------------------lose 1 unit 4. SF (+100) to win 1.5
units------lose 1.5 units 5. Mil (+115) risk 2
units--------------lose 2 units 6. Padres (-115) to win 4
units------------win 7a. Detroit (-175) to win 1 unit---------lose
1.8 units 7b. Detroit RL (+115) risk 1 unit----------lose 1 unit
Total for May 31: 2-5, -0.7 units
***Notes***
Not really surprised with any of the outcomes from Monday. We just
lost a little. Slightly more on the line today. Let's see if Detroit can get their heads out of their asses.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 59-45, -6.8 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 31): 36-3
Leprechaun, I might not understand your betting methods, do you also bet the series, I see you have 36-3, does that mean you bet on the team to win 2 out of three games with the seris price?
good luck today and let me know, this is where I might be missing the boat Pete
0
Leprechaun, I might not understand your betting methods, do you also bet the series, I see you have 36-3, does that mean you bet on the team to win 2 out of three games with the seris price?
good luck today and let me know, this is where I might be missing the boat Pete
Leprechaun, I might not understand your betting methods, do you also bet the series, I see you have 36-3, does that mean you bet on the team to win 2 out of three games with the seris price?
good luck today and let me know, this is where I might be missing the boat Pete
First...sorry I didn't see your post yesterday. I'm in the middle of moving and have no in home internet for a couple days.
Secondly, thanks for actually asking a question...much more constructive. You stated in an earlier post that you "read everything I wrote" but your questions tell me that you have not truly bothered to read the thread or you need to read it again. Please read the first 2 posts of this thread...they explain the strategy and then point you to a place where the unit management system is laid out in detail.
In short: Plays are based on how teams perform in a 3 game series at home or on the road vs. their opponent and vs. how the entire league is performing as the season progresses. We play to win 1, 2 or 3 games in a series based on a formula. There is no handicapping here. Numbers go in, plays come out and I follow them no matter what. We don't make a series bet, we only play individual games. The series record reflects any series where we played a team to win at least one game in a series, starting with the A game. If you're paying attention to the plays each day, there is a very logical pattern. (Ex: Milwaukee entered the system on Monday...we missed on the A game and the B game and today we play the C game). The units wagered follow a combined Labourchere and Martingale system.
If you play or don't play anything I post, that is your choice. No need to bash...we are all working towards a goal here and that is to try to develop systems that win consistently and to develop a money management strategy to profit form those systems. I'll keep tracking and posting througout the season, come good or bad. If the system fails, that is fine (but frustrating)...I'll keep working at it and looking for new angles. If the system succeeds, then great...hopefully many can benefit from it. It's pretty early right now to be sure how the season will play out, although I admit we are far short of expectations so far. I think things will turn around because this system should get stronger as the year progresses. If everybody who lost 20 or 30 units gambling just gave up, there would be no such thing as Vegas and this would be an awfully empty forum.
Leprechaun
0
Quote Originally Posted by petertjm:
Leprechaun, I might not understand your betting methods, do you also bet the series, I see you have 36-3, does that mean you bet on the team to win 2 out of three games with the seris price?
good luck today and let me know, this is where I might be missing the boat Pete
First...sorry I didn't see your post yesterday. I'm in the middle of moving and have no in home internet for a couple days.
Secondly, thanks for actually asking a question...much more constructive. You stated in an earlier post that you "read everything I wrote" but your questions tell me that you have not truly bothered to read the thread or you need to read it again. Please read the first 2 posts of this thread...they explain the strategy and then point you to a place where the unit management system is laid out in detail.
In short: Plays are based on how teams perform in a 3 game series at home or on the road vs. their opponent and vs. how the entire league is performing as the season progresses. We play to win 1, 2 or 3 games in a series based on a formula. There is no handicapping here. Numbers go in, plays come out and I follow them no matter what. We don't make a series bet, we only play individual games. The series record reflects any series where we played a team to win at least one game in a series, starting with the A game. If you're paying attention to the plays each day, there is a very logical pattern. (Ex: Milwaukee entered the system on Monday...we missed on the A game and the B game and today we play the C game). The units wagered follow a combined Labourchere and Martingale system.
If you play or don't play anything I post, that is your choice. No need to bash...we are all working towards a goal here and that is to try to develop systems that win consistently and to develop a money management strategy to profit form those systems. I'll keep tracking and posting througout the season, come good or bad. If the system fails, that is fine (but frustrating)...I'll keep working at it and looking for new angles. If the system succeeds, then great...hopefully many can benefit from it. It's pretty early right now to be sure how the season will play out, although I admit we are far short of expectations so far. I think things will turn around because this system should get stronger as the year progresses. If everybody who lost 20 or 30 units gambling just gave up, there would be no such thing as Vegas and this would be an awfully empty forum.
1. Angels (-105) to win 2.7 units 2. Mil (-105) to win 2.7
units 3. SF (-125) to win 3.8 4. Detroit (-130) to win 5.3 units 5.
Bos (-150) to win 2.7 units
***Results from June 1***
1. Angels (-105) to win 2 units---------lose 2.1 units 2. Philly
(+125) risk 1 unit---------------lose 1 unit 3. SF (-130) to win 2.8
units--------lose 3.6 units 4. Mil (+160) risk 2
units------------lose 2 units 5a. Yanks (-225) to win 2
units----------win 5b. Yanks RL (-120) to win 1 unit-----------win 6.
Detroit (-160) to win 3.6 units--------lose 5.8 units
Total for June 1: 1-5, -11.5 units
***Notes***
Bloody, bloody Tuesday. Worst day of the year so far. I even missed
several unposted non-system plays. I guess there's a lesson...never
gamble on the same day that you're moving. Going to get selective
today...dropping Philly but a loss will still count as a series loss.
Hard to believe that is the same team that just 5 days ago had the 2nd
best road record in the league. Gotta dig out of a hole once
again...but we keep plugging away. Need a decent day, if nothing just
to boost morale a little after going 3-10 the last 2 days.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 60-50, -17.3 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 31): 36-3
Good luck,
Leprechaun
0
Wednesday, June 2 MLB Series System Picks
1. Angels (-105) to win 2.7 units 2. Mil (-105) to win 2.7
units 3. SF (-125) to win 3.8 4. Detroit (-130) to win 5.3 units 5.
Bos (-150) to win 2.7 units
***Results from June 1***
1. Angels (-105) to win 2 units---------lose 2.1 units 2. Philly
(+125) risk 1 unit---------------lose 1 unit 3. SF (-130) to win 2.8
units--------lose 3.6 units 4. Mil (+160) risk 2
units------------lose 2 units 5a. Yanks (-225) to win 2
units----------win 5b. Yanks RL (-120) to win 1 unit-----------win 6.
Detroit (-160) to win 3.6 units--------lose 5.8 units
Total for June 1: 1-5, -11.5 units
***Notes***
Bloody, bloody Tuesday. Worst day of the year so far. I even missed
several unposted non-system plays. I guess there's a lesson...never
gamble on the same day that you're moving. Going to get selective
today...dropping Philly but a loss will still count as a series loss.
Hard to believe that is the same team that just 5 days ago had the 2nd
best road record in the league. Gotta dig out of a hole once
again...but we keep plugging away. Need a decent day, if nothing just
to boost morale a little after going 3-10 the last 2 days.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 60-50, -17.3 units Overall SERIES record
(through May 31): 36-3
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