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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Last 10 MLB Over System

    1234 Next Last»
    Machinist
    Danrules24
    Bart_
    bulichm
    casheasy
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    Machinist
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 6:58 PM ET #1

    Look at last 10 games of MLB teams, add up the total runs that each team has gone Over (add 1) and Under (subtract 1) the game book line total, and play OVER on games where the total of both teams totals are 40 runs over the book lines, and each team is at least at +10 over the book lines.

    1. COL (32) + SF (22.5) = 54.5, bet Over 7

    2. MIA (22) + PHI (18.5) = 40.5, bet Over 6.5

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Look at last 10 games of MLB teams, add up the total runs that each team has gone Over (add 1) and Under (subtract 1) the game book line total, and play OVER on games where the total of both teams totals are 40 runs over the book lines, and each team is at least at +10 over the book lines.

    1. COL (32) + SF (22.5) = 54.5, bet Over 7

    2. MIA (22) + PHI (18.5) = 40.5, bet Over 6.5

     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 7:09 PM ET #2

    40.5 - 6.5 is not greater than 40. Are you sure game 2 is a play?
    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    40.5 - 6.5 is not greater than 40. Are you sure game 2 is a play?
     
    Machinist
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 7:12 PM ET #3

    Yes, as long as the total of both teams totals are 40+, you play the Over, regardless of the current game line total. That total doesn't get subtracted.
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    Yes, as long as the total of both teams totals are 40+, you play the Over, regardless of the current game line total. That total doesn't get subtracted.
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 7:25 PM ET #4

    Gotcha, I misrread it then -"40 runs over the book total".

     

    BOL

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Gotcha, I misrread it then -"40 runs over the book total".

     

    BOL

     
    Machinist
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 7:37 PM ET #5

    Thanks Danrules, yes it's +40 runs over the "last 10" book totals, in total.
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    Thanks Danrules, yes it's +40 runs over the "last 10" book totals, in total.
     
    Bart_
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 7:52 PM ET #6

    Machinist, have you back tested this? 
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    Machinist, have you back tested this? 
     
    Machinist
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 7:53 PM ET #7

    No, but if anyone has the resources and time it would be nice to know the result.
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    No, but if anyone has the resources and time it would be nice to know the result.
     
    bulichm
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 7:56 PM ET #8

    Sounds interesting. How did you come up with this, if you don't mind me asking?
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    Sounds interesting. How did you come up with this, if you don't mind me asking?
     
    Machinist
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    Posted: Apr. 11, 2014 - 7:58 PM ET #9

    It just sounded logical, that teams that were recently either allowing a lot of runs or making them that were playing against teams that were doing the same, that a lot of runs would probably be scored.

    4 runs so far in the MIA/PHI game in the 3rd.

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    It just sounded logical, that teams that were recently either allowing a lot of runs or making them that were playing against teams that were doing the same, that a lot of runs would probably be scored.

    4 runs so far in the MIA/PHI game in the 3rd.

     
    Machinist
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 12:10 AM ET #10

    1. COL (32) + SF (22.5) = 54.5, bet Over 7, win

    2. MIA (22) + PHI (18.5) = 40.5, bet Over 6.5, win

    System at 2-0

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    1. COL (32) + SF (22.5) = 54.5, bet Over 7, win

    2. MIA (22) + PHI (18.5) = 40.5, bet Over 6.5, win

    System at 2-0

     
    casheasy
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 1:04 AM ET #11

    LOL I cannot figure this out. I apologize but I tried adding up all the runs Colorado went over their last ten games, and I came up with 34 and then added a run for 35. Then I subtracted a run from the games they went under. Then I tried all kinds of adding and subtracting and yet still couldn't come up with 32. It was usually either something like 24 or 46 lol. or 35 if you just forgot the under games and only included the over games..... The with SF....forget it! I never came close to 22.5!!!  So I am not sure how to read your statement of " Look at last 10 games of MLB teams, add up the total runs that each team has gone Over (add 1) and Under (subtract 1) the game book line total,"

    So I can't even start to back test this because I don't follow this formula. But I must admit, I like the way it worked tonight and the logic is not bad as far as going with teams that have been scoring.

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    LOL I cannot figure this out. I apologize but I tried adding up all the runs Colorado went over their last ten games, and I came up with 34 and then added a run for 35. Then I subtracted a run from the games they went under. Then I tried all kinds of adding and subtracting and yet still couldn't come up with 32. It was usually either something like 24 or 46 lol. or 35 if you just forgot the under games and only included the over games..... The with SF....forget it! I never came close to 22.5!!!  So I am not sure how to read your statement of " Look at last 10 games of MLB teams, add up the total runs that each team has gone Over (add 1) and Under (subtract 1) the game book line total,"

    So I can't even start to back test this because I don't follow this formula. But I must admit, I like the way it worked tonight and the logic is not bad as far as going with teams that have been scoring.

     
    Machinist
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 1:21 AM ET #12

    Hi casheasy, here's how I got 32 for Colorado:

    MIA 6.5 +4.5

    MIA 7 0

    MIA 7 +4

    MIA 7.5 +5.5

    ARZ 10 +4

    ARZ 9.5 +3.5

    ARZ 9 -1

    CWS 10 -1

    CWS 9.5 +8.5

    CWS 10 +4

    Total all of the last figures = 32

    Hope this helps, and thanks.

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    Hi casheasy, here's how I got 32 for Colorado:

    MIA 6.5 +4.5

    MIA 7 0

    MIA 7 +4

    MIA 7.5 +5.5

    ARZ 10 +4

    ARZ 9.5 +3.5

    ARZ 9 -1

    CWS 10 -1

    CWS 9.5 +8.5

    CWS 10 +4

    Total all of the last figures = 32

    Hope this helps, and thanks.

     
    casheasy
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 1:39 AM ET #13

    Ok I will try this again and thanks for the response Machinist. And good catch with this 
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    Ok I will try this again and thanks for the response Machinist. And good catch with this 
     
    Machinist
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 1:42 AM ET #14

    Sure. It would be great if you could do some back testing, I think it should be a profitable system, at first glance anyways.

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    Sure. It would be great if you could do some back testing, I think it should be a profitable system, at first glance anyways.

     
    casheasy
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 1:47 AM ET #15

    Ok I came up with 32 this time but then where does the (add one) come into play? Or are you simply saying add one run for every one run over and then subtract one for every one run under??? If that's the case ok with Colorado. I like this reasoning and agin, thanks for the response AND the effort to find something meaningful
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    Ok I came up with 32 this time but then where does the (add one) come into play? Or are you simply saying add one run for every one run over and then subtract one for every one run under??? If that's the case ok with Colorado. I like this reasoning and agin, thanks for the response AND the effort to find something meaningful
     
    Machinist
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 1:51 AM ET #16

    Just to make things clear, here's how I got 22.5 for San Francisco, because you said you got nowhere near this:

    ARZ 8 +9

    ARZ 8.5 +0.5

    ARZ 9 -7

    ARZ 8.5 +4.5

    LAD 7.5 +4.5

    LAD 7.5 +1.5

    LAD 6.5 +1.5

    ARZ 7.5 +2.5

    ARZ 7.5 +2.5

    ARZ 8 +3

    Total all of last figures = 22.5

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    Just to make things clear, here's how I got 22.5 for San Francisco, because you said you got nowhere near this:

    ARZ 8 +9

    ARZ 8.5 +0.5

    ARZ 9 -7

    ARZ 8.5 +4.5

    LAD 7.5 +4.5

    LAD 7.5 +1.5

    LAD 6.5 +1.5

    ARZ 7.5 +2.5

    ARZ 7.5 +2.5

    ARZ 8 +3

    Total all of last figures = 22.5

     
    Machinist
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 1:52 AM ET #17

    Yes, add one for every run over and minus one for every run under.
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    Yes, add one for every run over and minus one for every run under.
     
    casheasy
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 1:59 AM ET #18

    OK I did get 22.5 for SF and I only came up with different numbers because I misunderstood something with the original post and tried different things lol so now it makes sense. So, to summarize, take the over in any game when the opponents add up to over 40 runs over in their last ten games vs their last ten totals.
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    OK I did get 22.5 for SF and I only came up with different numbers because I misunderstood something with the original post and tried different things lol so now it makes sense. So, to summarize, take the over in any game when the opponents add up to over 40 runs over in their last ten games vs their last ten totals.
     
    casheasy
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 2:00 AM ET #19

    I also like that you used covers for the past scores and against the spread results,  so that there was no variation in the math. Good job! 
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    I also like that you used covers for the past scores and against the spread results,  so that there was no variation in the math. Good job! 
     
    Machinist
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 2:10 AM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by casheasy:

    OK I did get 22.5 for SF and I only came up with different numbers because I misunderstood something with the original post and tried different things lol so now it makes sense. So, to summarize, take the over in any game when the opponents add up to over 40 runs over in their last ten games vs their last ten totals.

    Don't forget that each team has to be at least at +10 runs, that way each team is in a positive stretch, and it's not just because one of the teams is in a really positive stretch, with the other at possibly a -5 or something.

    I'm glad that the line numbers matched up with the ones I used, it looks like it's standardized, although I may say that sometimes in the future, some of the numbers may be slightly off because of possible line changes, but it shouldn't be a massive amount. Close is close enough, this isn't going to be rocket science. :)

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    Quote Originally Posted by casheasy:

    OK I did get 22.5 for SF and I only came up with different numbers because I misunderstood something with the original post and tried different things lol so now it makes sense. So, to summarize, take the over in any game when the opponents add up to over 40 runs over in their last ten games vs their last ten totals.

    Don't forget that each team has to be at least at +10 runs, that way each team is in a positive stretch, and it's not just because one of the teams is in a really positive stretch, with the other at possibly a -5 or something.

    I'm glad that the line numbers matched up with the ones I used, it looks like it's standardized, although I may say that sometimes in the future, some of the numbers may be slightly off because of possible line changes, but it shouldn't be a massive amount. Close is close enough, this isn't going to be rocket science. :)

     
    casheasy
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 2:18 AM ET #21

    Ok Got it. Thanks again for the clarification
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    Ok Got it. Thanks again for the clarification
     
    bruin95
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 3:08 AM ET #22

    Good luck with the back testing, casheasy. This looks like it will be an extremely time consuming task. 
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    Good luck with the back testing, casheasy. This looks like it will be an extremely time consuming task. 
     
    Machinist
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 8:01 AM ET #23

    Yes bruin95, but hopefully a profitable one. :)

    System Record: 2-0

    Today:

    3. CLE (18.5) + CWS (38.5) = 57, bet Over 8

    4. COL (32) + SF (18) = 50, bet Over 7.5

    5. MIA (20) + PHI (21) = 41, bet Over 8

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    Yes bruin95, but hopefully a profitable one. :)

    System Record: 2-0

    Today:

    3. CLE (18.5) + CWS (38.5) = 57, bet Over 8

    4. COL (32) + SF (18) = 50, bet Over 7.5

    5. MIA (20) + PHI (21) = 41, bet Over 8

     
    orhane
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 9:12 AM ET #24

    i think there is an sdql for that. maybe i can figure it out.
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    i think there is an sdql for that. maybe i can figure it out.
     
     
    518Capper
    518Capper
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    Posted: Apr. 12, 2014 - 9:52 AM ET #25

    If you could figure out how to do a sdql Orhane that would be great... because if not... back testing this I imagine would be incredibly time consuming if not almost impossible
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    If you could figure out how to do a sdql Orhane that would be great... because if not... back testing this I imagine would be incredibly time consuming if not almost impossible
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