Yes I was just kidding, the Saints were beat down. But you're a fool if you think no sports games are ever fixed. Referees have been caught point shaving and players have been busted for gambling. You don't seriously believe athletes are that pure where they can't be bought off??
That last 67yd run was certainly questionable tho.. 1 guy even jumped out of the way. The Seahawks are the worst Playoff team in History, and they will get smoked next weekend. They just won their Superbowl.
Gonna be 2 great games today, maybe even better than yesterdays?? Gonna be fun!
Cheers
No, I've been around long enough to know that there are some INDIVIDUALS who will, for whatever reason, try to shave points---a player, an official, maybe even a coach. But Idon't think it's a problem in the NFL, and I don't think it's possible for a whole team or even a group of key players to throw a game without getting caught. I DO however know that the league and all involved have to be vigilant to guard against cheating. And yes, so far the games have been a kick to watch. Enjoy the rest!
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Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:
Yes I was just kidding, the Saints were beat down. But you're a fool if you think no sports games are ever fixed. Referees have been caught point shaving and players have been busted for gambling. You don't seriously believe athletes are that pure where they can't be bought off??
That last 67yd run was certainly questionable tho.. 1 guy even jumped out of the way. The Seahawks are the worst Playoff team in History, and they will get smoked next weekend. They just won their Superbowl.
Gonna be 2 great games today, maybe even better than yesterdays?? Gonna be fun!
Cheers
No, I've been around long enough to know that there are some INDIVIDUALS who will, for whatever reason, try to shave points---a player, an official, maybe even a coach. But Idon't think it's a problem in the NFL, and I don't think it's possible for a whole team or even a group of key players to throw a game without getting caught. I DO however know that the league and all involved have to be vigilant to guard against cheating. And yes, so far the games have been a kick to watch. Enjoy the rest!
This is what I like about you. I arrived too late to pick up your
plays, and anyways had already made a bet on GB (which was a sweet win, btw.)
But even with going 2-3 on your picks, you still manage to turn a profit. Not one you can use as a down payment on a Porsche, but a profit nevertheless.
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This is what I like about you. I arrived too late to pick up your
plays, and anyways had already made a bet on GB (which was a sweet win, btw.)
But even with going 2-3 on your picks, you still manage to turn a profit. Not one you can use as a down payment on a Porsche, but a profit nevertheless.
INVESTED: $43,570.05 RETURNED:$44,662.15 PROFIT: +$1,092.10 ROI %: +2.51%
DeSean Jackson was one more move away from breaking a go-ahead 50+yd TD in the final minute and then Michael Vick was one pass away from his 2nd TD throw of the day and a big Eagles win. The game of inches was a great one. I don't know what to think about Philadelphia's future now, Andy Reid's services will most likely be retained even tho he executed yet another piss-poor game plan. The Eagles had 25 runs this season of 20 yards or more (most in the League) and then refuse to run the ball. 13 total carries outside of Vick is not enough.
Green Bay was my original Superbowl pick and I thought the winner of this game had the best chance to go all the way. Should be a great group of games again next weekend. Baltimore/Pittsburgh and Green Bay/Atlanta should be amazing to watch!
I'm pretty disappointed I didn't get my NHL plays in tonight. Big plays on Dallas and San Jose. Caught up in the NFL and completely forgot about the early start times.
I think I have to make a value play on New Orleans now. With news of the 3-way deal between New Jersey/Detroit/Denver, which will send Carmelo and Chauncey to the Nets, nearing completion tonight it makes sense for the Nuggets to be further distracted. The Hornets have struggled away from home but the value is there tonight for what may be a huge distraction for Denver. There may be one or two 2nd Half plays tonight, as well.
NBA
New Orleans Hornets ML (+189) 1% $110.92 to win $209.64
INVESTED: $43,570.05 RETURNED:$44,662.15 PROFIT: +$1,092.10 ROI %: +2.51%
DeSean Jackson was one more move away from breaking a go-ahead 50+yd TD in the final minute and then Michael Vick was one pass away from his 2nd TD throw of the day and a big Eagles win. The game of inches was a great one. I don't know what to think about Philadelphia's future now, Andy Reid's services will most likely be retained even tho he executed yet another piss-poor game plan. The Eagles had 25 runs this season of 20 yards or more (most in the League) and then refuse to run the ball. 13 total carries outside of Vick is not enough.
Green Bay was my original Superbowl pick and I thought the winner of this game had the best chance to go all the way. Should be a great group of games again next weekend. Baltimore/Pittsburgh and Green Bay/Atlanta should be amazing to watch!
I'm pretty disappointed I didn't get my NHL plays in tonight. Big plays on Dallas and San Jose. Caught up in the NFL and completely forgot about the early start times.
I think I have to make a value play on New Orleans now. With news of the 3-way deal between New Jersey/Detroit/Denver, which will send Carmelo and Chauncey to the Nets, nearing completion tonight it makes sense for the Nuggets to be further distracted. The Hornets have struggled away from home but the value is there tonight for what may be a huge distraction for Denver. There may be one or two 2nd Half plays tonight, as well.
NBA
New Orleans Hornets ML (+189) 1% $110.92 to win $209.64
INVESTED: $43,680.97 RETURNED:$44,982.71 PROFIT: +$1,301.74 ROI %: +2.98%
A good finish to the weekend, at least. Added $520 the past 2 days and that is more like what the norm should be. It's tough seeing a couple $1000+ days because then people suddenly expect that to be the new norm, but that's not realistic.
I really got away from making good value plays the tail end of last week and it really hurt me. Was able to clear my head pretty good last night and felt more level headed today. The hit on New Orleans is a good indication of reading a situation clearly and I'll hope to continue that into this week.
INVESTED: $43,680.97 RETURNED:$44,982.71 PROFIT: +$1,301.74 ROI %: +2.98%
A good finish to the weekend, at least. Added $520 the past 2 days and that is more like what the norm should be. It's tough seeing a couple $1000+ days because then people suddenly expect that to be the new norm, but that's not realistic.
I really got away from making good value plays the tail end of last week and it really hurt me. Was able to clear my head pretty good last night and felt more level headed today. The hit on New Orleans is a good indication of reading a situation clearly and I'll hope to continue that into this week.
Kreatture - great work with this site. I honestly have looked through 100+ sites and only follow a few, so kudos for your work and diligence. You are doing this for free, so appreciate your efforts (you have had 1,635 posts!!!). Any ideas below are suggestions, not criticism.
I am a math guy - look at Poission variables to analyze prop bets, etc. Look at what is better "price" - ML vs goal-line vs OT/regulation, etc. But, I admit I don't know how to pick winners. I can't name 5 guys in the NHL - I do know of Crosby, Ovechin, Osgood, and Lemiux (sp?) - that's about it. So I like to see your fundamental analysis on NHL. And I will try to chime in more when I see good values - for example, I have been pounding the Devils team goals under for a while (it got killed yesterday but over last 6 weeks - it has been gold - since O/U has been 2.5 -130 or 3 -150/-160 depending on game - which is crazy IMHO).
But, I do think you should listen/dialouge more with some of the posters when they give advice. The 10% bet on LA doesn't make any sense - kudos for winning, but same day you analyzed NFL lines all day but only 1% bet on NO (kudos it wasn't bigger), but that's not congruent/consistent. And the macro comment (dogs are 50-50 with +15,000 on 500 bets is interesting and worth having discussion, not only you, but everyone). I love your site again, but I was SHOCKED at the 10% bet, I do stupid stuff like that all the time, but that's why I am trying to heed advice, and we both know even Kelly Criterion doesn't have those size bets unless edge is HUGE, and how can it be on a NHL game where team lost 4 straight going in?
Anyways, keep up good work, way to bounce back over end of weekend.
Also, I personally would love - for your bigger bets - just a quick 1 line reason. For example, GB 4% b/c think Rodgers gonna eat up secondary or whatever - again you don't need to do as you are doing it for free service, but on big bets (3%+?) it is nice to know your rationale/thinking.
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Kreatture - great work with this site. I honestly have looked through 100+ sites and only follow a few, so kudos for your work and diligence. You are doing this for free, so appreciate your efforts (you have had 1,635 posts!!!). Any ideas below are suggestions, not criticism.
I am a math guy - look at Poission variables to analyze prop bets, etc. Look at what is better "price" - ML vs goal-line vs OT/regulation, etc. But, I admit I don't know how to pick winners. I can't name 5 guys in the NHL - I do know of Crosby, Ovechin, Osgood, and Lemiux (sp?) - that's about it. So I like to see your fundamental analysis on NHL. And I will try to chime in more when I see good values - for example, I have been pounding the Devils team goals under for a while (it got killed yesterday but over last 6 weeks - it has been gold - since O/U has been 2.5 -130 or 3 -150/-160 depending on game - which is crazy IMHO).
But, I do think you should listen/dialouge more with some of the posters when they give advice. The 10% bet on LA doesn't make any sense - kudos for winning, but same day you analyzed NFL lines all day but only 1% bet on NO (kudos it wasn't bigger), but that's not congruent/consistent. And the macro comment (dogs are 50-50 with +15,000 on 500 bets is interesting and worth having discussion, not only you, but everyone). I love your site again, but I was SHOCKED at the 10% bet, I do stupid stuff like that all the time, but that's why I am trying to heed advice, and we both know even Kelly Criterion doesn't have those size bets unless edge is HUGE, and how can it be on a NHL game where team lost 4 straight going in?
Anyways, keep up good work, way to bounce back over end of weekend.
Also, I personally would love - for your bigger bets - just a quick 1 line reason. For example, GB 4% b/c think Rodgers gonna eat up secondary or whatever - again you don't need to do as you are doing it for free service, but on big bets (3%+?) it is nice to know your rationale/thinking.
First, nice job on pounding those Devils TT Unders! I have made a couple TT wagers here but it is one area where I often overlook, when actually there should be a lot more Team Total plays than actual Totals.
The comment about Dogs being 50/50 lately was noted, but not commented on since it was made the same night where I picked all Favorites, and normally I don't do that. (It was a bad night and I've all ready addressed that, stating I had got away from the value It seemed like he thought I was always on the favorite, which means he's never actually read the thread. I don't respond to posts where it seems someone's making a comment based on the past few posts only without reading the thread.
The Kings wager was a solid pick, but yes the % was inflated. It should have been 5-6% but I allowed my personal opinion to weigh heavier than usual. Often times I will get a pick which should be 3% but I lower it to 1% based on my personal thoughts. It's part of the Handicapping process and like I stated at the beginning of this thread, the Kelly is only part of the formula. The Kings are my favorite team, so people probably assumed that was why the wager was so high; that's not the case at all. Since LA is my favorite team, it's fair to say I know more about this team than any other team in the League. When you know a particular team inside and out it does make it easier to handicap their games. I've also shown the ability to separate emotion from my favorite teams, as well. In the past couple of weeks I have made picks on Chicago (@LAKings), Russia (over Canada) and NYJets (@Indianapolis).
It doesn't matter if I spend 10 minutes or 5 hours going over lines, the strength of the play is irrevelant to the time spent handicapping it. Double digits is a lot to ask for a road team in the playoffs, but it was the right play. Statiscally, the Saints should have easily won this game by dd's. I won't go into my Conspiracy Theories again, at this point, mainly because all but like 2 people would understand..
I would like to be able to have the time right now to provide full write-ups for all the games I pick, including the reason behind the pick as well as to why the percentage. That is not possible right now, but I will try to include something on the bigger picks at least.
Gotta go for now, will post again when I get home.
Cheers
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kvs23 Thanks for the thoughts.
First, nice job on pounding those Devils TT Unders! I have made a couple TT wagers here but it is one area where I often overlook, when actually there should be a lot more Team Total plays than actual Totals.
The comment about Dogs being 50/50 lately was noted, but not commented on since it was made the same night where I picked all Favorites, and normally I don't do that. (It was a bad night and I've all ready addressed that, stating I had got away from the value It seemed like he thought I was always on the favorite, which means he's never actually read the thread. I don't respond to posts where it seems someone's making a comment based on the past few posts only without reading the thread.
The Kings wager was a solid pick, but yes the % was inflated. It should have been 5-6% but I allowed my personal opinion to weigh heavier than usual. Often times I will get a pick which should be 3% but I lower it to 1% based on my personal thoughts. It's part of the Handicapping process and like I stated at the beginning of this thread, the Kelly is only part of the formula. The Kings are my favorite team, so people probably assumed that was why the wager was so high; that's not the case at all. Since LA is my favorite team, it's fair to say I know more about this team than any other team in the League. When you know a particular team inside and out it does make it easier to handicap their games. I've also shown the ability to separate emotion from my favorite teams, as well. In the past couple of weeks I have made picks on Chicago (@LAKings), Russia (over Canada) and NYJets (@Indianapolis).
It doesn't matter if I spend 10 minutes or 5 hours going over lines, the strength of the play is irrevelant to the time spent handicapping it. Double digits is a lot to ask for a road team in the playoffs, but it was the right play. Statiscally, the Saints should have easily won this game by dd's. I won't go into my Conspiracy Theories again, at this point, mainly because all but like 2 people would understand..
I would like to be able to have the time right now to provide full write-ups for all the games I pick, including the reason behind the pick as well as to why the percentage. That is not possible right now, but I will try to include something on the bigger picks at least.
Gotta go for now, will post again when I get home.
The underdog comment wasnt based on a few posts, since Jan 1 I believe you have picked the favorite 18 times vs a dog 9 times. Again this was a post to point out a macro factor. Lets use an arbitrary # and say that the favorites are taken with an average of -125 (being very generous), you would need to win 55.55% of the time to break even. Anyway GL.
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The underdog comment wasnt based on a few posts, since Jan 1 I believe you have picked the favorite 18 times vs a dog 9 times. Again this was a post to point out a macro factor. Lets use an arbitrary # and say that the favorites are taken with an average of -125 (being very generous), you would need to win 55.55% of the time to break even. Anyway GL.
Good luck - and by the way, regardless of your record, there is no doubt you have the most creative avatars all the time!
And in my opinion all the statistics you put are great, though the win/loss percentage is somewhat irrelevant as it depends if you are betting mostly -180 or +200. But, I love the ROI figures a lot and dollar invested data!!!!!!
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Thanks for resonse Kreatture.
Good luck - and by the way, regardless of your record, there is no doubt you have the most creative avatars all the time!
And in my opinion all the statistics you put are great, though the win/loss percentage is somewhat irrelevant as it depends if you are betting mostly -180 or +200. But, I love the ROI figures a lot and dollar invested data!!!!!!
INVESTED: $43,907.00 RETURNED:$44,982.71 PROFIT: +$1,075.71 ROI %: +2.45%
NHL
Los Angeles Kings -0.5 (-110) (regulation) 4% $452.07 to win $410.97
Boston Bruins/Pittsburgh Penguins Under 5 (+122) 1% $110.76 to win $135.13
Detroit Red Wings ML (+103) (OT included) 2% $221.51 to win $228.16
NBA
Parley(-248) Boston Celtics ML Chicago Bulls ML 3% $332.27 to win $133.98
There's not a lot of value in this parley, but it should be pretty solid with little risk. I've had a few reservations on the Celtics game the past 30 minutes, but I made this wager so I have to list it here.
INVESTED: $43,907.00 RETURNED:$44,982.71 PROFIT: +$1,075.71 ROI %: +2.45%
NHL
Los Angeles Kings -0.5 (-110) (regulation) 4% $452.07 to win $410.97
Boston Bruins/Pittsburgh Penguins Under 5 (+122) 1% $110.76 to win $135.13
Detroit Red Wings ML (+103) (OT included) 2% $221.51 to win $228.16
NBA
Parley(-248) Boston Celtics ML Chicago Bulls ML 3% $332.27 to win $133.98
There's not a lot of value in this parley, but it should be pretty solid with little risk. I've had a few reservations on the Celtics game the past 30 minutes, but I made this wager so I have to list it here.
I'm going to be watching the BCS tonight and keeping an eye on the Live In-Game Wagering screen at Intertops. The game is a virtual pick'em and there's really no value from backing either side as of right now. I'd love to make a Hero pick and say I predicted the National Champion, but I really don't care about that stuff. I'll look for another opportunity to make some money on this game..
With the odds being even, it will probably only take 1 score to get +odds on one side or the other, and I'll plan on placing a good size wager on the team who falls behind 3,7, or 10pts. With the explosiveness of both these teams a 10pt deficit won't be a big problem to overcome. The goal will be for the team who falls behind to come back and go ahead, thus giving +odds on the other side, where we can then make another good sized wager to guarantee a profit no matter who wins.
This is usually a good strategy for other games, as well, when Live Betting. If you grab a small dog pregame around +115 to +130 who you think can get a lead at some point, an In-Game opportunity usually appears to grab the favorite then at +money, too.
The problem most people have doing this is the emotional factor. You place the money pregame on the Dog and then they get out to an early 10-0 lead. You then get excited and think "Wow, this Dog is playing really well and they might easily win this outright. I'll just leave my wager alone and get the big Dog win"
..Meanwhile the other side is showing +120 and you ignore it. Then midway through the 2nd Quarter the other side puts together a TD drive, then creates a turnover and scores again. All of a sudden it's 14-10 and they're back to showing -130 and you're kicking yourself for not guaranteeing yourself that profit. Your team never regains the lead again so you never get another chance to split the bet, and you're left with a big fat loss.
I find the key to Live Betting is being able to completely check the emotion at the door. You need to approach it as an Investment opportunity with the goal in mind of guaranteeing yourself a profit. A small profit is still a profit.
For tonight's game I'll be hoping for an early score and grabbing the Dog early. The more time we have for a comeback the better.. it's obviously higher risk if someone doesn't grab a lead until early 2nd Quarter cuz we then have less time for the other side to come back and get our other +odds. If an opportunity doesn't arise, then it just doesn't arise. We move on to the next game.
Enjoy the game! Cheers
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I'm going to be watching the BCS tonight and keeping an eye on the Live In-Game Wagering screen at Intertops. The game is a virtual pick'em and there's really no value from backing either side as of right now. I'd love to make a Hero pick and say I predicted the National Champion, but I really don't care about that stuff. I'll look for another opportunity to make some money on this game..
With the odds being even, it will probably only take 1 score to get +odds on one side or the other, and I'll plan on placing a good size wager on the team who falls behind 3,7, or 10pts. With the explosiveness of both these teams a 10pt deficit won't be a big problem to overcome. The goal will be for the team who falls behind to come back and go ahead, thus giving +odds on the other side, where we can then make another good sized wager to guarantee a profit no matter who wins.
This is usually a good strategy for other games, as well, when Live Betting. If you grab a small dog pregame around +115 to +130 who you think can get a lead at some point, an In-Game opportunity usually appears to grab the favorite then at +money, too.
The problem most people have doing this is the emotional factor. You place the money pregame on the Dog and then they get out to an early 10-0 lead. You then get excited and think "Wow, this Dog is playing really well and they might easily win this outright. I'll just leave my wager alone and get the big Dog win"
..Meanwhile the other side is showing +120 and you ignore it. Then midway through the 2nd Quarter the other side puts together a TD drive, then creates a turnover and scores again. All of a sudden it's 14-10 and they're back to showing -130 and you're kicking yourself for not guaranteeing yourself that profit. Your team never regains the lead again so you never get another chance to split the bet, and you're left with a big fat loss.
I find the key to Live Betting is being able to completely check the emotion at the door. You need to approach it as an Investment opportunity with the goal in mind of guaranteeing yourself a profit. A small profit is still a profit.
For tonight's game I'll be hoping for an early score and grabbing the Dog early. The more time we have for a comeback the better.. it's obviously higher risk if someone doesn't grab a lead until early 2nd Quarter cuz we then have less time for the other side to come back and get our other +odds. If an opportunity doesn't arise, then it just doesn't arise. We move on to the next game.
You guys on the left side of the continent have a solid advantage on this game. For me, a shlub who needs to wake up quite early (think 5:00), watching the whole game is very hard. I have the same problem for MNF and March Madness Finals. If I understand, you live in Calgary, where the game will start at a very reasonable 6:45.
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You guys on the left side of the continent have a solid advantage on this game. For me, a shlub who needs to wake up quite early (think 5:00), watching the whole game is very hard. I have the same problem for MNF and March Madness Finals. If I understand, you live in Calgary, where the game will start at a very reasonable 6:45.
Chicago Bulls 2nd Half -8 (-115) 3% $332.27 to win $288.93
This seems like a great opportunity for a 2nd Half win. Will be quite surprised if the Bulls don't actually come back to win this game outright, down 12 at the Half.
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NBA
Chicago Bulls 2nd Half -8 (-115) 3% $332.27 to win $288.93
This seems like a great opportunity for a 2nd Half win. Will be quite surprised if the Bulls don't actually come back to win this game outright, down 12 at the Half.
Wow, does the Over look inflated right about now. Live Betting is down to 59.5
Yep, 56.5 now.. not a big surprise, these 2 teams have typically started slow. Look for the scoring to go up from here on out. Might jump on an in-game Over at some point..
The +120 isn't great, a Oregon TD would have made it about +170.. but we're into the 2nd Quarter now so we're losing time for value. We'll take the play now with anticipation of Auburn responding to the Oregon score and putting up a TD this drive. Then we should get about a +120 the other way.
Let's see how this drive goes..
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Quote Originally Posted by mickjam:
Wow, does the Over look inflated right about now. Live Betting is down to 59.5
Yep, 56.5 now.. not a big surprise, these 2 teams have typically started slow. Look for the scoring to go up from here on out. Might jump on an in-game Over at some point..
The +120 isn't great, a Oregon TD would have made it about +170.. but we're into the 2nd Quarter now so we're losing time for value. We'll take the play now with anticipation of Auburn responding to the Oregon score and putting up a TD this drive. Then we should get about a +120 the other way.
It was +110 after the Auburn score, then after the bad play on the kick return pinning them on the 5 it went to +120, and that's when I jumped.
Would have liked to had better odds, but hey, a guaranteed +$90 is a guaranteed +$90.
Keep an eye on the things and we'll look for another opportunity. The 2nd Half Total will be interesting to see where they set it at. If it's around the 28-31 mark I might jump the Over.
On other notes.. Celtics laying the egg I thought they might, right after I had already placed the wager.. but the Bulls have already erased the 12pt Halftime deficit and look good. Won't be surprised if they still win by 10.
TD Oregon.. let's see what HOLY SHIT WTF WAS THAT?! 2PT CONVERSION?! that was nuts..
Auburn up to +140 now.. might have missed the opportunity for the In-Game Over now.. things are gonna be fun now!
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Wow, hoped you grabbed the +120 before that pass!
It was +110 after the Auburn score, then after the bad play on the kick return pinning them on the 5 it went to +120, and that's when I jumped.
Would have liked to had better odds, but hey, a guaranteed +$90 is a guaranteed +$90.
Keep an eye on the things and we'll look for another opportunity. The 2nd Half Total will be interesting to see where they set it at. If it's around the 28-31 mark I might jump the Over.
On other notes.. Celtics laying the egg I thought they might, right after I had already placed the wager.. but the Bulls have already erased the 12pt Halftime deficit and look good. Won't be surprised if they still win by 10.
TD Oregon.. let's see what HOLY SHIT WTF WAS THAT?! 2PT CONVERSION?! that was nuts..
Auburn up to +140 now.. might have missed the opportunity for the In-Game Over now.. things are gonna be fun now!
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