Kreatture's Playbook

Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
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One new Top 5 Home Team play starts tonight, with the Giants at home for 4 games vs. the Cubs. A rare Game 4 for the RunLine Blitz tonight.


KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - SEPTEMBER 24TH, 2009


RUNLINE BLITZ

DETROIT TIGERS   game4


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS   +1.5   game1 of 4
     dog alert, play rl +1.5








Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

6-3 .. 2 out .. no one on .. and a walk .. and a 2 strike 2 run homer .. 6-5 Tigers ..

I don't have enough money left to play the Game 5 .. so looks like I'm done. Was a fun summer.

Good Luck guys, I respect any of you who can make a living doing just this, it is the hardest work I have ever done in my life, the mental exhaustion is just draining.

Continued Success 

 

i know kreatture i think i will become crazy,,,,look at this

PARLAY $350
908 ROCKIES VS PADRES
-210 (PICK) MLB
915 TIGERS VS INDIANS
-240 (PICK) MLB
To Win $381.50 TOTAL $350

2009-09-24 17:40PT

again colorado...3-0,then 3-1....ties at 3,..next inning 4-3 sd 2outs man on first steals the base(in slow motion clearly out the umpire calls safe)next batter single, man on second scores ...next inning colorado solo home run 5-4,single and giambi strikes out...

i just have 500 more to recover 500....but after this past two days i´m blind ....just can`t think clearly i think i will play a 2 teams 7 point teaser on nfl....any suggestions?please!!!

I'm not a fan of 7-pt teasers to be honest.. if I was doing a 13pt teaser tho I would look at Tennessee +16, Detroit +20, Cincinnati +17, Indianapolis +16

I like the Titans over the Jets for my outright upset pick.

For my ML Parley I am looking at Baltimore and Philadelphia.

I also feel the following teams have a strong advantage this weekend:

Vikings, Patriots, Texans, Chargers.

I'll be looking forward to seeing what sports_Network releases for his picks of course, and will re-evaluate everything after final Injury Reports are released later today.

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I didn't realize I actually won the Giants game tonight. Forgot they were a dog and I had them at +1.5 .. Yet another victory for the Top 5 Home Team. So I guess I have about $1000 left .. I feel like I should cash it all out, but it's so hard to admit failure for me.. and that is what I would be doing. Haven't slept for a couple of days now, so I'm due for a good snooze later this afternoon probably.
I'll look over the injury reports and watch some more game film tonight and go from there..

Cheers 

How ironic..? I am a huge student of Astrology, of how the Sun and Moon affect moods and thoughts. It's pretty deep shit for me.
The following is what the Universe has in store today.. the first 2 sentences I found of particular interest.. oh how nice it would be to end this horrendous series of bad beats..

          "All winning streaks eventually come to an end and all losing streaks eventually die down in quantity. Today feels like one of those shifting times as the Moon forms a discordant square to Saturn (7:16AM PDT) that also begins an 8+ hour void lunar uncertainty zone that lasts until 3:20PM PDT when the Moon enters industrious, hard-working Capricorn. During this void Moon time-span, the two largest celestial bodies - the Sun in Libra and Jupiter in Aquarius - form a testy and mostly caustic 135-degree tie (7:51AM PDT). The astrological jury is still out about whether a tense aspect between the two usually providential cosmic bodies equates with a rise in trouble and dissension or manages to still provide a healthy dose of enlightenment. Let's hope the latter is the case, but whether the Sun and Jupiter offer good luck or not, drop your expectations because the alignment happens while the Moon is void and in a questionable state of reality. Once the Moon enters the last earth sign of Capricorn (3:20PM PDT), focus renewed attention on your career plans and professional ambitions. This becomes even more crucial and potent as the Moon makes its monthly union with Pluto (4:45PM PDT). With a hypnotic-like ability to concentrate your energy, you can achieve great results as a savvy entrepreneur. Expect some flack and additional needling by the universe due to the First Quarter Sun-Moon Phase taking place and activating 3 degrees of Libra and Capricorn (9:51PM PDT). Cut through obstacles on physical and emotional levels, and manage your life and relationships with greater finesse."


Hopefully I can get the Karma Goddesses back on my side this weekend.

Cheers 

Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
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There is a new Top 5 Home Team play for the weekend, with the Yankees hosting the Red Sox. There are also 3 new Hfoudl plays, and there would normally be a big Game 5 for the RunLine Blitz. However, I am so sick of baseball this month and watching blown late lead after blown late lead. The Tigers game yesterday was finally enough to break my back. Done until the Playoffs. Focus is on NFL this weekend.
Use your head if you play MLB this weekend and next week. I sure know I haven't been, and encountered 2 huge losses this month.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - SEPTEMBER 25TH, 2009


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

NEW YORK YANKEES   (game1 of 3)  






Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Great weekend in the NFL. Nailed my 13pt teaser and MoneyLine Parley. Lost the Titans play, the Jets look like they're for real. Their 1st loss will come next week tho.
The Vikings, Patriots and Chargers all came through, but the Texans were robbed. Big disappointment there for them.

Wagered a Parley on the late games with New Orleans ML, San Diego ML, and Chicago -3 for $100, thank you Bears for that late TD to cover.

NFL has been fantastic so far, up about $700 through 3 weeks. Looking forward to adding a bit more tomorrow night with the Cowboys/Panthers game.

Now.. if I can just resist the urge to play any baseball this week.. maybe I can save some of the sanity I have gained back.. LoL

          "All winning streaks eventually come to an end and all losing streaks eventually die down in quantity. Today feels like one of those shifting times as the Moon forms a discordant square to Saturn (7:16AM PDT) that also begins an 8+ hour void lunar uncertainty zone that lasts until 3:20PM PDT when the Moon enters industrious, hard-working Capricorn. During this void Moon time-span, the two largest celestial bodies - the Sun in Libra and Jupiter in Aquarius - form a testy and mostly caustic 135-degree tie (7:51AM PDT). The astrological jury is still out about whether a tense aspect between the two usually providential cosmic bodies equates with a rise in trouble and dissension or manages to still provide a healthy dose of enlightenment. Let's hope the latter is the case, but whether the Sun and Jupiter offer good luck or not, drop your expectations because the alignment happens while the Moon is void and in a questionable state of reality. Once the Moon enters the last earth sign of Capricorn (3:20PM PDT), focus renewed attention on your career plans and professional ambitions. This becomes even more crucial and potent as the Moon makes its monthly union with Pluto (4:45PM PDT). With a hypnotic-like ability to concentrate your energy, you can achieve great results as a savvy entrepreneur. Expect some flack and additional needling by the universe due to the First Quarter Sun-Moon Phase taking place and activating 3 degrees of Libra and Capricorn (9:51PM PDT). Cut through obstacles on physical and emotional levels, and manage your life and relationships with greater finesse."


Hopefully I can get the Karma Goddesses back on my side this weekend.

Cheers 

[/Quote]

interesting material...

SN 

Best to you as well, as always. will be cheering hard in your corner tonight for the Dallas Cowboys. Hopefully the camera guy will show lots of cheering Dallas cheerleaders as well!!

Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
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I have personally, finally, shut down MLB for the regular season and will not be wagering any further plays - even the Top 5 Home Team. It continues to dominate tho, and would roll out 4 new plays tonight, including 2 more Double Unit plays with a Top 5 Home Team vs. a Bottom 5 Road Team, which is 14-0 on the season going 14-4 in Individual games.
Wager wisely folks.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - SEPTEMBER 28TH, 2009


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

NEW YORK YANKEES   (game1 of 3)  
BOSTON RED SOX   (game1 of 3)   Double Unit Play
     top5 home team vs. got5 road team
     juice alert, play rl -1.5
DETROIT TIGERS   (game1 of 4)
TAMPA BAY RAYS   (game1 of 4)   Double Unit Play
     top5 home team vs. bot5 road team
     juice alert, play rl -1.5





Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Interesting 1st Half in Dallas.. worked out in my favor.

Had planned on wagering 1st team to Score - Dallas, and 1st Scoring Play - TD .. but the odds were so ridiculous on Dallas I switched it up (was -210 Dallas, +155 Carolina ) and I did lay it on the TD -180.

Was happy when Dallas missed that field goal LoL

I imagine Dallas was blasted at halftime and I expect them to stuff Carolina right off the bat here and get the ball back, and score.

2nd Half Chase - Next Team to Score - Dallas  -105


Let's go Cowboys!!

Click on the Red Title to access each spreadsheet. From there, there are tabs at the Top Left of the screen which you can click on to access the Master Files, as well as each individual month.
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One more new series starts tonight, with San Francisco hosting Arizona.
Game 1 of Detroit lost this afternoon, so game2 is tonight. Tampa Bay did not cover the RL last night, so is game2 tonight. Boston was called early last night, giving a refund on the RL wager. So game1 is once again tonight.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - SEPTEMBER 29TH, 2009


TOP 5 HOME TEAM

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS   (game 1 of 3)
BOSTON RED SOX   (game1 of 2)   Double Unit Play
     top5 home team vs. got5 road team
     juice alert, play rl -1.5
DETROIT TIGERS   (game2 of 4)
TAMPA BAY RAYS   (game2 of 4)   Double Unit Play
     top5 home team vs. bot5 road team
     juice alert, play rl -1.5





Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

Vikings didn't win by 3 like I hoped, but turns out the 7pt margin didn't hurt us, as the guy we were tied with either picked Green Bay or had Minnesota by more than 7. So we win our local pool Week 4 with 189pts and get $150, which covers our Buy-In for the Season, woohoo!!

Great game to watch tonight, had the feel of a SuperBowl early on. Brett was amazing and that Vikings goalline defense is simply the most dominating in the League! Allen is a beast!!

HaHa, just noticed we had picked 27 Total Points for Minnesota tonight, dunno why I thought it was 24.  So 27-24 Final, turns out wasn't too far off, and nailed the Over.

Man.. have you ever thought you were on an Under, then checked your book and realized you were on the Over?? I think someone started a thread about that earlier, and I remember thinking I would never do something like that.. guess I can't say that anymore, LoL.

Live Wagering went as perfect as could be as well tonight, finishing up +3.17 Units

Week 4,  13-1 ML  10-4 ATS

Overall NFL 46-16 ML  74% , 37-25 ATS  60%


Guess I'll have to start posting the plays next week. I have another spreadsheet done up to track, as well as tracking Expert Analysts Picks from ESPN, FoxSports, NFL Network, and TheScore.

I have started NHL too, but not ready with a spreadsheet there yet.

Hope everyone is doing well and cashing tickets!!

Cheers 

I will be doing up Final Year End Reports for the MLB Systems I was using in the near future. In particular, the Top 5 Home Team System, which I think was the best of any of the MLB Systems I used. The #'s will reflect how the System truly finished, rather than by the numbers I, personally, finished with since I royally screwed up on Money Management a few times throughout the season.

I'm looking forward to seeing what the actual numbers would have been if I had stuck with the game plan all season.

Today's Playoff game - Win or go home - can not be capped with pure Sabermetrics alone. A 1 game playoff involves too many factors not directly related to the numbers game.

Factor into consideration - Desire, Determination, Mojo, Heart.

A lot of factors point to a Minnesota win, with exception of one factor - the big game heart of a 20 year old rookie.

Porcello is the real deal - he gets the job done.

Bullpen is too much of a wildcard for Detroit to trust Detroit ML, grab the insurance in case Rodney blows another 9th inning lead.
A well pitched Win & In game will lead to a play on the Under as well. Solid play unless Rodney blows the 9th. Buy to 9 if available.



KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - OCTOBER 6TH, 2009

MLB WIN & IN GAME

DETROIT TIGERS   +1.5
UNDER   8.5




Playoff Wagering scenario can not be completed until all matchups are determined. Gameplan will be posted later tonight.


Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

DETROIT TIGERS

RICK PORCELLO  5.2ip  4h  2r  1er  2bb  8k  92pitches


Not in favor of this pitching change right now.. No reason for a hook here with an unreliable bullpen.

If Detroit loses now it will be for the reason they lost all season.. poor bullpen led by poor managing.


Great game so far!

Well the baseball game went exactly as I saw it, a well pitched game by both starters with Porcello the more dominating of the 2. A poor decision by management led to Zach Miner having to pitch an inning not designed in the Gameplan (Porcello 7ip, Lyon 8th, Rodney 9th) and caused a couple extra runs to be created. This caused the total to go Over, which actually still had a chance until Rodney blew the Win in the 10th - as also expected.
Poor management once again led to the eventual winning run as Rodney was sent to the mound to pitch for an unheard of 4th inning (9th 2 outs, 10th, 11th, 12th) for a Closer, and on his 48th pitch served up the winning hit.

DETROIT TIGERS  +1.5  


Congrats to the Minnesota Twins for one heck of a late season comeback. They now get the luxury of being swept by the eventual 2009 World Series Champions - New York Yankees. At least that extra revenue from Game 3 in the final game ever at the Metrodome will be a bonus.


Elsewhere, NHL is skating along beautifully so far, with a perfect night on the ice. Tonight's winners were Anaheim +1.5 (what a collapse in the 3rd tho, whoa!) and Edmonton ML. A 1 Unit Parley on the 2 also paid a nice bonus tonight.

NHL will not be fully launched until the 1st of November, which is why I haven't posted any plays so far. I certainly wouldn't want anyone tailing my picks and losing one here and there during the first month, then come on here and cry about it.. That bridge has been burnt.

Unexpected company showed up late tonight, so I was unable to finalize the MLB Playoff Gameplan, and I'm exhausted now being 4am here in Nova Scotia, so off to sleep for me.

Early appointment for a haircut just after lunch, but will try to get the Gameplan posted here for tomorrow's action.

If anyone uses Twitter (huge addict here!) you can follow me under the same Username - kreatture. I usually post my plays on there for the benefit of one of my local friends, and can post on there even when I'm not at home (Thank You Apple!). Just send a request there and I'll approve ya.

Cheers 

Gameplan for MLB Playoffs is finalized.. no time for post right now, off 2 get my haircut!

Will post later this afternoon hopefully, but the early play is the OVER 8 and PHILADELPHIA ML.

This will begin a Series Chase on the Over and a Chase on Philly ML, or +1.5 if Dogs in Colorado.

Phillies win this series, as well.


Cheers 

I recall reading this some where last year. That in the history of MLB and the NHL. In no playoff series has the home team ever lost every game. It can basically end up being a seven game home team chase at heavy juice but it wins.

KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - OCTOBER 7TH, 2009


COLORADO ROCKIES @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Philadelphia Phillies  ML  -131     Game1 of possible 3
Over 8  -120     Game1 of possible 5


MINNESOTA TWINS @ NEW YORK YANKEES

New York Yankees  RL  -170     Game1 of possible 3


ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Los Angeles Dodgers  RL  -150     Game1 of possible 3
Under 7  -125     Game1 of possible 5


BOSTON RED SOX @ LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM          (Thursday, October 8th)

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim  RL  -170     Game1 of possible 3
Under 8  -105     Game1 of possible 5


All picks above will begin a possible Chase on the team which will win each individual series. The maximum Chase for each series is 3 games, since if the pick does not win in the first 3 games, the series is over due to a sweep by the other team. The only exception to this is the New York Yankees series, which will be played on the RunLine -1.5, due to the extreme nature of the juice in Games 1 & 2. Game 3 may be only a MoneyLine pick, depending on Line Value at the time. RunLine games for Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are +1.5 for Game1, due to line opening as 'Dogs'.
All Totals will begin a possible Chase up to 5 games, since this is the maximum number of games each series can play. The pick of 'Over' or 'Under' is based on Sabermetric "leans", and are strongly favored to hit at the very minimum, 1 game in each series. There will be no Total play for the Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees series.
The Overall Goal for Round 1 is to win 7 Units. Each Unit will represent 2.5% of my current bankroll.
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The following percentages are also noted for each individual series prediction. These numbers are based on the Bill James Playoff Predictor, which is well known throughout the baseball handicapping universe. It involves a simple mathematical formula based on 13 criteria points. My personal handicapping of each individual series also generally matches up with the below numbers. However, anything can happen in a short series, and these numbers should be referred to as a 'guideline' only. Actual series results may differ 


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES     57.36%     3 games to 2  (personal pick 3-1)

LOS ANGELES DODGERS     58.52%     3 games to 2

NEW YORK YANKEES     68.94%     3 games to 1  (personal pick 3-0)
 
LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM     54.20%     3 games to 2



So there you have it folks, the MLB 2009 Game Plan. Whatever you choose to play, or not play, remember this is the greatest time of the year for Baseball fans and you should enjoy each and every game. Do not risk so much on each game where it actually replaces the 'fun' and 'enjoyable' feeling of watching the game with 'stressed' and 'nervous' feelings. After all, this is The Greatest Game on Earth..


Cheers 




Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success