Keep me honest post

I had followed a good strategy for MLB this season posted here:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=100738022

I am trying to adapt it to the NFL and last Sunday went 2 for 3. the single loss will be chased the next time Philly is at home. The strategy would have gone 3 for 4 in week one had I thought enough to include the Thursday New Orleans game.

Without explaining anything I am posting today's picks to keep me honest. The only one not drowning in juice is the Bengals.

All money line plays:

Minnesota

Cincinnati

Atlanta

Green Bay

Dallas

San Diego

Indianapolis

did you go back and track this from previous years ?  so far I did 2004-2005  it looks good. I think this would show the most profit doing this on a aggressive labby line. like this.

5-5-5-5

10-10-10-10

15-15-15-15

putting A bets on first line and B bets on second line and C bets on third.

This did well for me in baseball this year. Translating it to other sports seems to be a challenge. In MLB, I looked for a team to start a home stand of six games or more. The NFL's short schedule has only about eight home games in total. MLB plays the same team for a three or four game series. No other sport does this until the playoffs.

The only common factor between all sports is there is a lot of juice when your only use ML plays. I have hit 2 of 3 "plus money" plays in the NFL this year. Hopefully that continues tonight with

San Francisco  ML @ +193  Game 1

So after two weeks the record stands at:

Games Played: 11

Complete chases: 7-0

Net Units:  0.04

Game 1 wins:  7

The NFL juice factor is much higher than MLB. I hope this calms down over the season or the trend doesn't extend to the NHL.

Week 3 plays (ML):

New England  Game 1
Minnesota  Game 2
New Orleans  Game 1
Baltimore  Game 1

Games Played: 15

Complete chases: 10-0

Net Units:  -0.33

Game 1 wins:  9

Game 2 wins:  1

Week 4 plays (ML):

New Orleans  Game 2
Pittsburgh  Game 1
Atlanta  Game 1
Green Bay  Game 1
San Diego  Game 1
Philadelphia  Game 2

The juice is killing me. Unless the odds come down over the season this you cannot ML bet in the NFL.  I will still continue for a while to satifsy my own curiosity but this is tough.

I started an NHL thread in this forum.

Games Played: 21

Complete chases: 14-0

Net Units:  -2.27

Game 1 wins:  12

Game 2 wins:  2

 
Week 5 plays (ML):

Indianapolis  Game 1
Cincinnati  Game 1
Baltimore  Game 1
Dallas  Game 2
San Francisco  Game 2