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Ideas for RRL 2-team parlay chase

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Posted: #1
I know it's probably a little bit late for this, but I'm brainstorming for some ideas for a 2-team parlay chase using the RRL(-1.5). 

After doing quite a bit of research, and with the help of sabermetrics(BsR, specifically), there is a strong correlation between a team's run differential and their production of 2+ run wins. The FanGraphs 2014 BsR projections accurately predicted 12 out of the 14 teams that would finish the season with a positive run differential. That being said, some teams are better at winning by 2 than others. Since I can't seem to paste it, the percentages of 2+ run wins(out of overall wins) from last year can be found here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BgOU2E8Pkctm0TFv1ZWJVpygrstwa-2h0JChlL9d-cs/edit?usp=sharing

Now, as the season progresses, FanGraphs updates their projections daily, based on a team's performance. This obviously is a tremendous help in zeroing in on the team's one is trying to bet on in the hopes of covering the RRL. 

Using DanRules' 2-team parlay system that has been applied to the MLB and NHL for road dogs, I am trying to figure out a wise way of perhaps utilizing the system to chase a 2-team parlay of 2 teams likely to win by 2 on that given day. 

No, I don't think it's a crapshoot- if you break down each team's 2+ run wins, about 5-25% are won when the team is the underdog on the road, and approximately 75% are won as a favorite, with the home favorite category slightly edging out the road favorite. Virtually none of a team's 2-run wins come as a home underdog, so that play can be eliminated automatically. 

And one more little snippet of information- while chasing these teams straight for 8 games wouldn't work out(because at some point, the odds wouldn't be good enough to cover losses if the streak gets longer than 3-4 games), I did run the info on about half of these teams and NONE of them went 8 games in a row as a favorite without winning by 2 after May 1st(don't want to start the system until then to give time for data collection and more accurate projections). 

Given this information, anyone have any ideas for a way to utilize the RRL? Doesn't have to be a parlay chase, or a chase at all. Just think there's tremendous value in the RRL knowing which teams are significantly more likely to produce more 2+ run wins than others.

Here are links for projected stats for this year. Pay attention to run differential:

Clay Davenport

FanGraphs

PECOTA

 
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Posted: #2
Sorry, the links at the bottom didn't come out, here they are:

https://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
 
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Posted: #3
Sam, I like your way of thinking and I believe there is something here.

Good luck in your pursuit.
 
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Posted: #4
So I've been toying with different ideas and doing a little bit of backtesting. Here's what I'm going to run with, and when I have a little more time(towards the end of April), I'll do some more backtesting for a more optimal chase.

This system is very similar to DanRules' 2-team road parlay chase, but with 1 slight variation- instead of taking the 2 strongest road teams, I ran the numbers for April and May of last year using the 2 strongest road dogs with + odds. Believe it or not, in the first 2 months, the system survived not one but TWO full 8-game chases(both won on the 8th game), and after 2 months, had produced a profit of 196 units. The numbers I used were based off of the lines I saw on Covers, so things obviously are going to vary from book to book. 

That being said, I still ran in to a couple of problems- the biggest one being that games start at different times every day, and coupled with the swings in line movement of the course of the day, can significantly change which teams you'd be betting on each day. 

So, after doing some pondering, here are the rules for this system:

1. Approximately 1 hour before the start of the first game of the day, I will look at the lines at that time and look for the 2 strongest road dogs with + odds(based on the line, so strongest means as close to +100 as possible). 
2. If there is a tie or there are a couple of teams within a few points of each other(so, let's say we had 3 teams with +101, +103, and +104), I will take the 2 teams who are facing the worse pitcher based on Sagarin NPERA. I'm not sure exactly how much this will change the team selection, and I know it will, but this seemed like a fairly logical way of figuring out a tie. Sagarin's NPERA is considered the best representation of real-life pitching value. I should mention that I'm open to other suggestions regarding how to settle lines that are either tied or very close. 
3. Parlay the 2 strongest road dogs in an 8-game chase with a pre-determined amount using following progression: 1x, 2x, 3x, 5x, 8x, 12x, 18x, 25x, where x is your unit size. 

A full 8-game loss will result in a loss of 74 units. However, the way the progression is set up is that the later in the chase you win, the more units you stand to make. You also have the option of tailoring your bets to make as much profit as you want- you just have to make sure to cover any previous losses. The worst odds on any individual game(2 teams at +100) pays +300, so there is plenty of room to alter your bets if you don't feel like risking as much as the set amount.

I will be tracking this here. I will use the same format as DanRules does with the 2 banks that allow for 2 8-game losses and a "pocket" of money that doesn't get touched. When the overall bank grows big enough to allow an increase in unit size of .25, I will advance the unit size. I have no idea how this is going to perform but I'm curious enough to track it to find out. Tail at your own risk and good luck to all this year.
 
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Posted: #5
Sam,

What happened to the original thought of using the RRL, or picking the DOG to win by 2 or more?

In other words you parlay the strongest 2 DOGS to win by 2 or more (RRL)  Check those odds!

A backtest of the amount of games won by the strongest dogs by 2 or more runs would be interesting.

Another thought is to run 2 chases, 1 on the ML and 1 on the RRL. Unit sizes could be varied for each.  Maybe use 1x for ML and 0.5x for RRL.

Good stuff Samrock67 
 
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Posted: #6
They key is 'handicapping' the 2 best DOG teams on the card to give you the strongest chance to win.  
 
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Posted: #7
How about Playing the Yankees or mets to both win or lose on same day. I bet this would hit alot on a chase. I know off topic but think would hit alot and mixing the combinations up.
 
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Posted: #8

Sam that's some good stuff. I think you used some of my hockey parlay system in your rules, but just so you know I use something a bit different in baseball.

In baseball I will not use the  bank method with a pocket account. I'm just going to let it run on it's own, whether up or down, no set bankroll. I also started using the 2 strongest dogs (closest to +100), it could have been home or away. I the switched to more handicapping usin Degen's Dog system spreadsheet as a guide. As Oilcountry stated, the key is handicapping the best Dogs that day. The betting line is simply public betting and there is usually value elsewhere.

If you are betting RRL (dog -1.5) it would be better to use road teams to get that extra AB in the top of the 9th. Also if you are trying to decide on 2 teams that are close on odds you might want to look at the totals number on the game. If one game is O/U 6 and another O/U 9, I'd lean toward the 9 game. With an expected high scoring game, there is more variance to the score increasing your chances of a game won by 2 or more.

 

Best of luck, I will follow.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Sam that's some good stuff. I think you used some of my hockey parlay system in your rules, but just so you know I use something a bit different in baseball.

In baseball I will not use the  bank method with a pocket account. I'm just going to let it run on it's own, whether up or down, no set bankroll. I also started using the 2 strongest dogs (closest to +100), it could have been home or away. I the switched to more handicapping usin Degen's Dog system spreadsheet as a guide. As Oilcountry stated, the key is handicapping the best Dogs that day. The betting line is simply public betting and there is usually value elsewhere.

If you are betting RRL (dog -1.5) it would be better to use road teams to get that extra AB in the top of the 9th. Also if you are trying to decide on 2 teams that are close on odds you might want to look at the totals number on the game. If one game is O/U 6 and another O/U 9, I'd lean toward the 9 game. With an expected high scoring game, there is more variance to the score increasing your chances of a game won by 2 or more.

 

Best of luck, I will follow.


Good stuff Dan.

I remember in another thread you stated that you would be running 3 or 4 different parlays and that one of them was using totals.  Do you mind stating the rules/parameters for that system?  Thanks.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by flwareagle:


Good stuff Dan.

I remember in another thread you stated that you would be running 3 or 4 different parlays and that one of them was using totals.  Do you mind stating the rules/parameters for that system?  Thanks.

I will be posting a new thread soon.

 

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #11
Alright, so here's what I'm gonna do.

I will be keeping track of 2 systems, each on both the ML and RRL. I will get a spreadsheet together where I will keep track of all of the info, but I will still try my best to post the plays in this thread as well. Should be fun to follow. Here's what I'll track: 

1. Strongest Road Dogs

2. RD Kings- this goes along with my first post. This system will start May 1st after teams have had a month to establish a Run Differential. I will take the 2 teams each day who are leading the league in percentage of 2 run wins and have a positive run differential and parlay them.

If the lines are close for a couple of teams in any system, I will use some combination of totals, NPERA, run differential and my own personal feelings to make my decision on which 2 teams to take. While there is a disadvantage in not having a steadfast rule about which teams to take(like, for example, just taking the 2 odds closes to +100 and ignoring everything else), maybe it will lead to some smarter decisions. Only time will tell. 
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I will be posting a new thread soon.

 


Great....looking forward to it!!
 
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Posted: #13
 
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Posted: #14
Just wanted to mention that while I am running each system on the ML and RRL, the picks for each might be different- the ML pick is going to be decided more by the opposing pitcher's NPERA, while the RRL pick will be decided by a combination of that and a team's run differential and 2+ win percentage.
 
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Posted: #15
Here is the link to the spreadsheet I'll be using to keep track of these systems. Feel free to use the Chat tab on the bottom to ask any questions or chat on a daily basis, as I'll be checking the spreadsheet much more frequently than here.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OQyf8Dggeb5-tMQWFQ9rINqqQSxaHt6DMDAPBlmnQiM/edit#gid=54836727
 
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Posted: #16
Slight last minute change-

I've realized that for the RRL, since even favorites will have + odds most of the time, I will do a RRL parlay of 2 road teams who based on matchups, projected BsR and my gut feeling have the best chance of hitting the RRL.
 
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Posted: #17
Ok, here goes gentlemen. Best of luck to all. Will use $10 as unit size for simplicity.

4/6/15

Road Dogs 
Bal(+113) + CWS(+100)
$10 to win $32.60

Road RRL
SF(+120) + Cle(+150)
$10 to win $45


 
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Posted: #18
4/6/15 Results

Road Dogs 
Bal(+113) + CWS(+100)
$10 to win $32.60- LOSS

Road RRL
SF(+120) + Cle(+150)
$10 to win $45- LOSS
 
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Posted: #19
4/7/15

Road Dogs
Atl(+109) + LAA(+114)
$20 to win $69.45

RRL
LAD(+145) + LAA(+180)
$20 to win $117.20

Thoughts: with the RRL- not always going to choose road teams. Since we're always taking the RRL, if there's a home team that I think has a good chance to cover, I'll take it. CJ Wilson has a great history against Seattle, and Greinke has been lights out against SD over the last 3 years. 
 
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Posted: #20
LAD is not a reverse run line (RRL) wager, it is a run line wager (RL). RRL is a dog played at -1.5 providing large odds for the dialed in capper.

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

LAD is not a reverse run line (RRL) wager, it is a run line wager (RL). RRL is a dog played at -1.5 providing large odds for the dialed in capper.


True. I shouldn't call it a RRL chase then. Maybe RL/RRL, since I'll be using a combo of both. Apologies for the confusion.
 
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Posted: #22
Here's a little breakdown of all of the 2+ run wins since 2004:

Home Favorite: 37.7%
Road Favorite: 18.3%
Home Dog: 11.8%
Road Dog: 27.8%

So, first thing I do is zero in on the HF and RD matchups, since those produce the most 2+ run wins. I look at pitching matchups, run differential, historical H2H, and projected BsR. I try to make an educated decision about which 2 teams to take each day. I'm no expert, and I'm not putting a lot of money personally on this, but after seeing the success Danrules had with his strongest road 2-team parlay system for MLB and NHL, I decided to experiment and see if I could have success with a little bit of a twist on his system. Hopefully it works out. 
 
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Posted: #23
4/7/15 Resul.ts

Road Dogs
Atl(+109) + LAA(+114)
$20 to win $69.45- WIN

RL/RRL
LAD(+145) + LAA(+180)
$20 to win $117.20- LOSS

Totals:
Road Dogs: +59.45
RL/RRL: -30

 
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Posted: #24
4/8/15

Road Dogs
Bal(+102) + SF(+106)
$10 to win $31.61

RL/RRL
Sea(+165) + Bos(+125)
$30 to win $148.88
 
 
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Posted: #25
4/8/15 Results

Road Dogs
Bal(+102) + SF(+106)
$10 to win $31.61- LOSS

RL/RRL
Sea(+165) + Bos(+125)
$30 to win $148.88- LOSS

Totals:
Road Dogs: +49.45
RL/RRL: -60
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