Posted:
#1
OK let alone the NFL there is one 100% perfect EDGE that no Vegas book can put a number nor any bookie bUT YOU can see it and feel it.
IT's the human psycholgigal factor emotional edge
EX: END of Year week 14 Miami held on to to Beat div. Rival Patriots wow they were hugging each other at end of game with a pick against Brady. Like they were Crying real tears YOU think they just won the AFC Finals.
well sure as shit next game vs the Bills @ Buffalo ate a big Fat doughnut 19-0 and for some odd reason were installed as huge chalk at home vs Jets -7
well i look back at 2006 season and sure enough same exact games happend win vs Patriots 21-0 @ Bills got blanked 21-0 home - 2.5 vs Jets lost the game
fpor some reason this is Miami's MO end of year losses negating earlier wins and keep em out of Playoffs
another huge Emotional win that crashed next game
Lions QB Stafford 1st win ever vs Packers 40-10 NOTICE the 40 points scored thsi high number causes many teams to flop next game ats as a chalk or a dog especially in playoffs teams that hit 40 + points have now gone 2- 23 ATS next playoff game including the superbowl NYG i remember after whipping Vikes 41-0 got buried by Ravens 34-7
any way next Game Lions at Eagles Whammo 34- 20 Loser
and wound up losing next 3 games and out of Playoffs
Lions problem is top suits and scouts and drafting
Stafford just isnt that good of a QB without Megatron in game he cannot find other receivers.
Raiders upset longtime conf rival Steelers as a +2.5 dog 21-18 next home game -2.5 vs Eagles got buried 49 -20
believe me that Raiders steelers Rivalry from the 70's and 80's still holds water opsssssssss jsut gave my age away lol
oo btw that Raiders win came after Steelers had knock down drag out defensive fight vs thier biggest blood rival Ravens a game they squaek a cover - 2 chalk won 19- 16 was 19- 9 before that see it now after beating the defending Champs thier biggest rival in div steelers went down in flames @ horrible Raiders
best simple way to handicap point spreads after two weeks in season you start there is only one thing that counts in NFL games and all sports is what final score is at end of game
so now you take both teams points for and points against ]
like this Team a Scored 45 points gave up 25 points so they are + 20 pts total div. by 2 games played they Are now + 10 points per game as a pckem
thier opponent team b scored 15 points in 2 games and allowed 35 they are - 20 points or - 10 points per game (ppg)
now beware if this is div match up and team b was away both games and is home you got a verypossible s/u dog winner
realizing that Team A beat no one 1st two games teams that were losers last year like 4 -12 or 2 -14 ...
so now we see a spread of team A - 3 1/2 looks great right they should cover that number
letss add the spread in now vs pckem results which is 0 +10 negtvie 10 = 0
+10 becomes + 6 1/2 - 10 becomes - 6 1/2 hmmmmmmmmmm what has changed
simple math when you have negative number vs a plus number add them together to get differnce bewteen two points on a 0 line scale
like so
-10----------0----------+10 that = 20
+ 6 1/2 + -(6 1/2 ) = 13 thats a 7 point differntial from the pickem result in otrher words vegas sucker bet when you take into account that the favored team hasnt faced any one yet and the dog home team was on road vs playoff caliber teams
yes it's that simple to see if Vegas put up bad number
do not try to use thier system it's very hard using power rankings HC power rankings offensive power rankings yards per play in air and rush vs defensive power rankings then add or subtract for injuries ..then they think what YOU think about the favorite and this where you get value fading the popular favorite teams
which now will be Packers , Patriots , Broncos, Seahwks, 49ers, Cowboys, Eagles,Saints, Chiefs your paying a price here always 1 1/2 to 3 1/2 points more Vegas knows these teams are backed heavily every year so beware when these teams are chalked -7 and higher
another thing every bettor walks into is the knee jerk reaction which i wack every week
EX: KC on Road - 2 1/2 @ Jaguars win game 28-2
Come home to Cowboys teeny weeny chalk - 3 HEllo sucker lick that lollipop it' very sweet isnt it ......... what Is Vegas saying here what are they Yelling at you ooooooo lok Chiefs only a small fg favorite at home vs the weak Cowboys surely they win by 4 or more
on phone to Bookie heyy Frank what the spread in Chiefs game he says KC - 3 YOU go give me Chiefs for 200 he says ok you got it buddy!
that phraze used by locals is your kiss of death he already has 10 others taking KC confers with other locals aand they all have same thing and decide to hold spread at that magic number 3
final score KC almost the game 17-16 win
right now we see KC is not strong offensively and it comes up early saeson and whheels fell off when losing defenders later in saeson because of extensive use.
Happens to every team with that Pea shooter offense defense is on field longer every game and after 8 weeks broken busted up team starts losing games squeaks into playoffs and is one and done 100% of the time
This is what you have to do evry game every week look at teams schedule handicap fully as in did thet beat last opponent or did opponent beat them selves?
like massive penalties turnovers complete melt down gifting the game to other team.
another stone cold fact is point spreads causing you losses
in other words only 19 % of the time your favored team either wins by less than the spread or pushes.
there are 256 games played in season so only 49 out of those games are lost to points
therefore if your always losing to spreads every week your fooking up 49 or even 50 divded by 17 weeks 2.9 games per week ok make it 3 games per week and you keep going 0-3 or 0-2-1 wow your bad.
thats right folks 81% of the time or 80% of all games YOU must bet the winner.
exclusively on MNF games the percent is way higher
there is about 3 games per year out of the 16 MNF games where your dog team loses and cashes your ticket.
your percnt is poor betting points to win your money
i only count the reg MNF games that week 1 extra game is not factored into this because it was added to give us 17 MNF games but it's not we still only have 16 weeks to bet MNF games
so only 17% of mnf games are won by points the other 13 games or 12 at most are won s/u and ats inother words dogs win also.
Have a great year in 2014
IT's the human psycholgigal factor emotional edge
EX: END of Year week 14 Miami held on to to Beat div. Rival Patriots wow they were hugging each other at end of game with a pick against Brady. Like they were Crying real tears YOU think they just won the AFC Finals.
well sure as shit next game vs the Bills @ Buffalo ate a big Fat doughnut 19-0 and for some odd reason were installed as huge chalk at home vs Jets -7
well i look back at 2006 season and sure enough same exact games happend win vs Patriots 21-0 @ Bills got blanked 21-0 home - 2.5 vs Jets lost the game
fpor some reason this is Miami's MO end of year losses negating earlier wins and keep em out of Playoffs
another huge Emotional win that crashed next game
Lions QB Stafford 1st win ever vs Packers 40-10 NOTICE the 40 points scored thsi high number causes many teams to flop next game ats as a chalk or a dog especially in playoffs teams that hit 40 + points have now gone 2- 23 ATS next playoff game including the superbowl NYG i remember after whipping Vikes 41-0 got buried by Ravens 34-7
any way next Game Lions at Eagles Whammo 34- 20 Loser
and wound up losing next 3 games and out of Playoffs
Lions problem is top suits and scouts and drafting
Stafford just isnt that good of a QB without Megatron in game he cannot find other receivers.
Raiders upset longtime conf rival Steelers as a +2.5 dog 21-18 next home game -2.5 vs Eagles got buried 49 -20
believe me that Raiders steelers Rivalry from the 70's and 80's still holds water opsssssssss jsut gave my age away lol
oo btw that Raiders win came after Steelers had knock down drag out defensive fight vs thier biggest blood rival Ravens a game they squaek a cover - 2 chalk won 19- 16 was 19- 9 before that see it now after beating the defending Champs thier biggest rival in div steelers went down in flames @ horrible Raiders
best simple way to handicap point spreads after two weeks in season you start there is only one thing that counts in NFL games and all sports is what final score is at end of game
so now you take both teams points for and points against ]
like this Team a Scored 45 points gave up 25 points so they are + 20 pts total div. by 2 games played they Are now + 10 points per game as a pckem
thier opponent team b scored 15 points in 2 games and allowed 35 they are - 20 points or - 10 points per game (ppg)
now beware if this is div match up and team b was away both games and is home you got a verypossible s/u dog winner
realizing that Team A beat no one 1st two games teams that were losers last year like 4 -12 or 2 -14 ...
so now we see a spread of team A - 3 1/2 looks great right they should cover that number
letss add the spread in now vs pckem results which is 0 +10 negtvie 10 = 0
+10 becomes + 6 1/2 - 10 becomes - 6 1/2 hmmmmmmmmmm what has changed
simple math when you have negative number vs a plus number add them together to get differnce bewteen two points on a 0 line scale
like so
-10----------0----------+10 that = 20
+ 6 1/2 + -(6 1/2 ) = 13 thats a 7 point differntial from the pickem result in otrher words vegas sucker bet when you take into account that the favored team hasnt faced any one yet and the dog home team was on road vs playoff caliber teams
yes it's that simple to see if Vegas put up bad number
do not try to use thier system it's very hard using power rankings HC power rankings offensive power rankings yards per play in air and rush vs defensive power rankings then add or subtract for injuries ..then they think what YOU think about the favorite and this where you get value fading the popular favorite teams
which now will be Packers , Patriots , Broncos, Seahwks, 49ers, Cowboys, Eagles,Saints, Chiefs your paying a price here always 1 1/2 to 3 1/2 points more Vegas knows these teams are backed heavily every year so beware when these teams are chalked -7 and higher
another thing every bettor walks into is the knee jerk reaction which i wack every week
EX: KC on Road - 2 1/2 @ Jaguars win game 28-2
Come home to Cowboys teeny weeny chalk - 3 HEllo sucker lick that lollipop it' very sweet isnt it ......... what Is Vegas saying here what are they Yelling at you ooooooo lok Chiefs only a small fg favorite at home vs the weak Cowboys surely they win by 4 or more
on phone to Bookie heyy Frank what the spread in Chiefs game he says KC - 3 YOU go give me Chiefs for 200 he says ok you got it buddy!
that phraze used by locals is your kiss of death he already has 10 others taking KC confers with other locals aand they all have same thing and decide to hold spread at that magic number 3
final score KC almost the game 17-16 win
right now we see KC is not strong offensively and it comes up early saeson and whheels fell off when losing defenders later in saeson because of extensive use.
Happens to every team with that Pea shooter offense defense is on field longer every game and after 8 weeks broken busted up team starts losing games squeaks into playoffs and is one and done 100% of the time
This is what you have to do evry game every week look at teams schedule handicap fully as in did thet beat last opponent or did opponent beat them selves?
like massive penalties turnovers complete melt down gifting the game to other team.
another stone cold fact is point spreads causing you losses
in other words only 19 % of the time your favored team either wins by less than the spread or pushes.
there are 256 games played in season so only 49 out of those games are lost to points
therefore if your always losing to spreads every week your fooking up 49 or even 50 divded by 17 weeks 2.9 games per week ok make it 3 games per week and you keep going 0-3 or 0-2-1 wow your bad.
thats right folks 81% of the time or 80% of all games YOU must bet the winner.
exclusively on MNF games the percent is way higher
there is about 3 games per year out of the 16 MNF games where your dog team loses and cashes your ticket.
your percnt is poor betting points to win your money
i only count the reg MNF games that week 1 extra game is not factored into this because it was added to give us 17 MNF games but it's not we still only have 16 weeks to bet MNF games
so only 17% of mnf games are won by points the other 13 games or 12 at most are won s/u and ats inother words dogs win also.
Have a great year in 2014
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