HOW TO FIND VALUE in BASKETKBALL & FOOTBALL

If  you perceive playing games like a good investor would play the stock market you are 1/2 way to winning. You should view this in the following manner.

                       

  Teams are the company

  Coach is the ceo

  Players are the work force

  Playing a game because you like a team is an investment

  Playing against a team is like selling short.

         A good investor is looking for value in 2 ways whether its the stock market or game.

        Teams that have positive investment potential either:

 Are hot teams with good potential to continue their hot swing or

 teams that have bottomed out and look like they will rebound. They in essence are like buying a stock at a low price.

         Indicators in the stock market project the likely direction a stock will go. It is like an actuary. Insurance companies base their rates on actuaries. A good sports player should do the same. The problem is how to do so.

                                    hints

  Hot teams  usually stay hot until they start winning to the spread by lesser amounts over a short series of games.

  On the other hand teams that have positive value are often teams that have had low ebb games and have the energy to rebound from their recent efforts. They might have played poorly from a period of 1 to 3 games but had at least an average to good point spread record before the bad results. Such teams rebound  far more often then go in a downword spiral.

  Teams that are playing poorly in general usually continue their downward spiral. Bad teams against the spread that have been playing well in  from 1 to 3 of their last games usually will go bad again after their mini streak.

  Problem- Some teams change character and it is difficult to predict. This does not happen often.

  Problem- About  10-15% of teams go counter to proven handicapping techniques. This problem is easy to solve. Do not play them when they reach 2 games to the bad  against the spread .

                            Wednesday's Card

 It is loaded with good games. Last Wednesday was not. In some cases considering tonight's game there was a play because one team was very hot against the spread and the other was very cold.  A hot Milw. team fills that bill against  a cold Atlanta team

   In 2 of the games I am selling"short". Oklahoma and Charlotte are showing signs they will be playing poorly.

 We are playing Philadelphia , Phoenix , and Portland tonight because they show indicators of having a good game.

   Very Strong plays are Boston, San Antonio, and Portland because both strong positive indicators on 1 team vs weak one's for the other team  come into play. San Antonio and Portland are the strongest.

  Detroit is also a play because both teams show opposite indicators but not as strongly as the previous 3.

 Certain patterns emerge when viewing both good and bad team patterns.

We have a 20,000 game data base and the patterns we uncovered work. It is based on human nature and  the amount of energy  a team is likely to have.

 The other important factor is to compare the point spread.  The Phil game has a curious spread. A player on Orlando will not be playing tonight, though.

    This is an exceptional card. It is the best of the year so far. I hope it cooperates with past performances.  The strong games are worth 10-15 units . The others ,5 units.

                           Happy Thanksgiving

...Happy Thanksgiving 2 U Professor...

I bet with you strongest plays tonight professor...

 

...Milwaukee....

 

...Boston....

 

...San Antonio.....

 

...Portland....

There are no plays for thanksgiving.I did not play the Orlando  Phil game. My value spread on the game was at -1 Orl and  pick em with the injury.The spread was -5 Phily. I do not know why the game was out of line so much. The injury for Orlando was not that big of deal.

 I will allow a game to be off  by less than 3.  I deduct a unit play for each  1/2 point the game is off. I apologize for not posting  this info but my schedule has been brutally busy. Here are value spreads in games of  interest to me this  Wednesday.

                 value spread     actual spread

Atlanta           +7 1/2             +7 1/2              0

Cleve              -18                  -16                 +2

Toronto            -6  1/2            -8                  -1 1/2

Bos                -13                  -12                 +1

Phil                 pick                -5                   no play

Det                   ??                 -11 1/2       trade NY will hurt them

San Ant           -5                   -7                  -2

Utah                -11                 -9 1/2             +1 1/2

Port                 -6 1/2             -7 1/2             -1 

      For every +point I play 1 more unit and for every -1/2 point I deduct a unit . Atlanta was a 5 unit play and stayed there. Cleve (10) becomes a 12 unit play because the spread was good by 2. Toronto went from 10 units to 7 units(- 1 1/2) and also was the difference between a win and lose. Boston became a 11 unit play. Phil was a no play. NY remained a 10 unit play. Chicago was a double strength play (15units) minus 2 points or a 11 unit play. Utah is a double strength play with a value spread of +2. It is capped at +15. Port was off by 1. It became a 8 unit play . 

  In football tomorrow Tennesee , Seattle, and Arizona are good plays. Detroit is terrible . Tenn will rebound from their lose. The spread is good for the Dallas Seattle game  and Phil is on a negative cycle while Arizona is going places. There will only be 2 good plays this Sunday .

  Have a super Thanksgiving. I hope we do well Wednesday . As I am posting this some games are still being played. I will be gone early tomorrow so I will not post anything tomorrow.     

You, didnt post Utah read your thread.  

 I will be giving out college games starting today. I have done very well early on and go half units early in the season. I refuse to make final decisions on work I do  late at night. I make mistakes. Time is a major issue with me so I must double check what I do late at night.

 Wednesday I was 61 -17 unit wise and I expect the season to take off!! Losing weeks are rare for me starting Thanksgiving week.I am 64 units ahead for the year and expect that to rapidly go up to 200+ units.

 I  have 5 possible plays in the NBA

 Cleveland-12            14 unit play very strong

 Charlotte +7 1/2       11 strong

 San Ant +7               7 very good

 Sacr +10 1/2             6 very good

 Port  -5                     6  very good

 

                      college no unit value given

         Gonzalez, Kent State, Virg, MSU, Utah, Calif.

         California is getting some early smart money.

         football Cent Mich  8 unit

 I am getting an average of +105 odds today at Matchbook.

     There are several "need games" in college football today. Some teams "need" to win if they want to get to a bowl game. I will leave it to you to find them. Look for teams with 5 wins + Ariz St  has 4 wins with 2 winable games coming up. "NEED GAMES " are a powerful tool to use when handicapping.

 

First Off, Congrats On Your Picks You Analyze, God Bless.  Okay Mr. Professorkopak Let Me See If I Got This Correct: 

 

So You Take The Opening Line, Then Compare It To The Movement Of The Line From The Opening To The Final Line Movement?  How Are You Knowing The Value Of It?

  I will post my games tomorrow (SAT) about noon.Ihad a good day and almost a perfect college day if Kent State would have scored 1 less point in regulation. I have lost 4 overtime games this year like that and have won none. I was 9-2 yesterday. Consider all college games to be 8 unit plays until further notice. I actually had 2 more college games I did not give out because they were only 5-6 unit plays. Both won easily. I am 5-1 in college though I was ahead at regulation in the Kent State overtime lose. I was 4-1 in the NBA. Total units ahead for yesterday was 63 units. I will  have more days like yesterday. Losing weeks will be rare for me now that the season is in full swing. I posted MSU as a play. I should have said Mich St. I consider Mich St. as MSU and not Miss St as I consider OSU to be Ohio State and not Oreg St when abbreviating. I will go into detail about the last week of college football and how to think. The last week is tricky to handicap using conventional wisdom. There were and are good plays this week. "Need games " are everything in the last week and sometimes the second to last week. A classic example was Arkansas. They needed to win to get to a bowl game. They were playing LSU who already qualified and was playing poorly in recent games. Also another great tool to use is when one team is going bowling and the other is not. The non bowl team thinks of the last game as their bowl game and are up for the game. The other team often is not because they are already going to a bowl game. The eception to this is when a BCS game is involved. There existed 7 plays this week. 5 teams covered. Last week there were 2 teams, while both covered.

 

 

 

 Yesterday I suggested that the last game of the season in college football is tricky to handicap using conventional means. There are 2 "prime factors" that do not exist until the last game of the season and sometimes the second to last game of the season. Losing is uncommon when using both methods. Yesterday there were 6 plays and 5 won. Today there are 2 plays.

 The first method is that you simply look for teams who need to win in order to get to a bowl game .These teams will be 5-6 or 4-6 if its the second to last week. 5-5 teams are ok if the last game they will be playing they will be the dog. This is especially good when the team they are playing already is going bowling. We do not play against teams however that have a BCS game at stake. Today that would be Alabama. Auburn( 5-6) is a no play.

                       Here are yesterdays results.

 Arkansas+7 won outright

 Colorado+18 almost won outright but a 57 yard field goal got them.

 Ariz State(4-6) they need to win 2 games and both are winnable. They won easily.

   Method 2 is similar ,but we are looking for teams that are not going to a bowl game but the other team is. Again do not play against a team when a BCS game is at risk. This game becomes theier bowl game !

                              results

 E Mich+14 won outright

 Kent State +7 won outright

 Texas El Paso lost

 Yesterday 's results were 5 -1 with 4 outright underdog wins.

        Todat there are 2 games

N CAR ST 5-6

Virg 5-6

                  Both need a win to go bowling.

 

Basketball games for this Sat. Treat all college games as 8 unit plays.

 Old Dom,Seton Hall,Austin Peay, St Louis, Wash, and BYU

 There is only one NBA game . Utah at 14 units. There are 3 other games I like but my strict rules make them a no play. Bos, Atlanta, and Houston. Lines are off in 2 games. Miami and Atlanta have value to them. Both should be favored.

 

 

 I got one more basketball ball game tonight. There was no line when I posted earlier. San Diego St is a good play. I will be getting help from one of my former handicapping students. That will give me time. He is razor sharp and will program the whole thing into a computer. I am handicapping 4 different entities now. I have made some mistakes posting , but I am putting in 16 hour days and just got out the hospitol with heart problems. I hope you caught the football games. I missed one, that being Houston.( 5-6)

 The football game was not Houston but Memphis (5-6). My former handicapping student does not want me to post games . He thinks it will screw up the odds. It will not do that until a whole lot of people start putting their money on my picks.That would be a while, though.

Any insight on your money management? You always put this in your posts but never really elaborate like other topics. Like what percent of the bank roll is a unit. Right now I stick to 1 unit which is about 3-5% of my bank roll and just compound it as my bank roll increases. Thanks for the help.

HeaVin-Cent

Hey professor I always read all of your stuff and I think you are incredibly smart and helpful. Just wanted to say I appreciate your insight. Please keep posting your plays. And if you get a chance would you mind emailing me at bennyha (at) hotmail.com. I had some questions I would like to ask you. Thanks and keep up the good work!

Nice call professor on SDSU......

 

First of all both college football games covered. I also  liked Memphis (5-6)  but was not sure they  would get a bowl bid at 6-6. There are 2 more games coming up. Ariz St and Louisville both at 5-6.BCs teams with possible Natl Championship possibilities all covered. As for the rest it is good to consider the lesser team at the end. They almost always are up for the game and the favorite has a harder time with motivation. Dogs covered almost every non BCS possibility games. N Car St ws a particully good game to play. They have been super hot against the spread, while playing a team that has had suspensions. Teams with suspended players usually do poorly the second week after it happens not the first.The same is true for injured quarterbacks.Teams rally around  a negative the first week and then the second week they go bad. In the 70's we did a study of this and found 27 games with an injured quarterback. The first week the teams went 17-10 against the spread with the new quarterback. In the second week they went 9-18. I am not sure what the figures are for this period of time but they probably are not far removed from the 70's study.

 Yesterday in college basketball  after deleting the Seton Hall game that I gave out early on but got good info to stay away from. I posted the deletion at about11:30. I also gave out San Diego State later on. The spread was not posted early in the morning. They covered easily . We were 4-1-1 (Old Dom push). I could not give out 3 other games because a sports service contacted me and asked if they could give out the games. OSU, Tex AM and S Alab all won.

 As fot the NBA game , well can't you take a joke.I just did not know I was joking at the time. Sometimes  teams abruptly change character. I think New Jersey will be a team to watch in the near future. That was a remarkable showing.i expect them to be a good team to play when they have positives going for them. 

  NFL games. Its a bad card for me. New Eng is in a" need" position today. . . For the record west coast teams are 0-14 going east this year. San Fran must play Buff (-6 1/2) today. Those are my only 2 plays.

 NBA       Chicago (+6 1/2) and Portland( +3 1/2) are 10 unit plays. Chicago should be +3 on my value line . They also have 7 points worth the positives in other factors.They now become a 10 unit play. The line is correct on the Portland game. They have +10  in positives considering other factors.

 College basketball   The plays are Sienna, Rutgers, Louisville, Maryland and Ariz State - all 8 units.

 Yesterday at Matchbook I got on average+105. I get 15% more than a -110 .

 Today I have averaged +104. I got the Chicago game in early. At the last showing they are now -108. If I win half my games I am still 2% ahead !!!!!

 There are no plays tonight. I have not been reading most posts  because of my schedule. I will get to them soon. Sorry if you wanted me to respond. My former handicapping student is just about ready to help me. He is going to put our formulas into computer form. I am trying to do too much. Our NBA plays both won outright as dogs Sunday. I have been giving out all my NBA plays but not all my college plays. I started the year wobbling in the pros  but it has taken hold. My former student scoulded me for starting  the NBA season before the 10th game . He was right. I had told him long ago why it was not good to start the NBA before then. He read me his notes of what I said then and I plead guilty. The same is not true of college games it's adifferent animal. They can be played by the second game believe it or not. We made a little on college games yesterday. Both football college games won Sat. For anybody who attempted to use my NFL formula that I posted a couple weeks ago  you would be kicking butt. Atlanta was off by 6 to the spread and were a quality play. That is a lot with the formula I developed. I have added some more to it. I think it is proper to give double value on teams with a 50+ diff in running offense if that is the stronger of the 2. My 2 NFL plays I gave out yesterday both loss.They were not my best plays but I used them. This week I will give you the whole card (NFL) including my strongest plays. It is a super card coming up. I am excited about it. Tomorrow there are several basketball plays. I am giving out most of them. A service is working with me and wants me not to give out plays I give them (college only). Yesterday I gave them James Madison. They won. Also I had Sienna as a play. 2 things about that play. The game went off at 10:30 am. That was after I posted my plays. The line I was given was +12. Not in  a million years would I have played them at +2 at Oklahoma State. Teams from minor conferences playing inferior competition most of the time are bad plays.Cleveland St was a 2 point favorite against Kansas St. last week. That is a bad line. Cornell was a 3 point away favorite against Indiana. Both teams lost to the spread by many. I am getting laser eye surgery later this month so I can see without straining. We should have another winning week, so enjoy my picks while I am posting them. I am seriously thinking about teaching a handicapping class in Las Vegas. I think I was the first to ever teach a handicapping class at a college which was in the 70's. The class will be for only 10 people. That is all I can handle since I will work with them for 6 more months after the 2 day seminar. The class would cost $1000. Those who take the class will never view sports handicapping in the same old way ever again. It will be an eye opener to them with absolute proof of past performances. $250 of the money would also go into a betting fund. I call it an investment fund . It is likely students will be very happy with the investment fund results since I will show them how not to be idiots with their money as most people unfortunately are. The former student who will be helping me is hitting 70% of his plays. I have shown him new techniques since he last took the course. He, is to say the least , a very happy person. I have been in contact with him off and on for a while and I trust him.

  I will be posting my plays in the early afternoon tomorrow.

yo professor i would be very interested in that class were you to teach it. where are you located?