I have several things to talk about before posting my games.
The first is what i have been preaching for the last month. Use Matchbook !!!!!!!
reason#1 I average getting +103 odds per game not the traditional -110. That is a 13% difference!!!!! Yesterday I got +106 odds to good on average.
reason#2 The opening line is always available to you. If the line moves the wrong way you can still use the opening line.They create another line(sometimes 2 more)
reason#3 You can makes your own take. If you are being offered-105 and think you can get-101 you can plug in -101
reason#4 If you want to kill a play by betting both sides you can do that and you only put in the same amount as your original bet but your balance does not change and you only get charged 2% of your winnings not the bet. If your balance was $100 and you bet the other side your balance would still be $100
reason#5 You can live bet and only get charged 2% of your winnings not each bet.
reason# 6 It is easy to get paid
I have been in contact with a former student and I am glad I did. He stills has his notes from long ago. I do not. One of the things I discussed in a class long ago was something about a baseball play that always made a profit every year .Play against ( good teams in particuliar) who are traveling a long distance and are playing Monday. That angle has worked for years but I forgot about it. My old student became the teacher yesterday. He said the same held true for NBA basketball except you could extend it to Tuesday. Late last night we backtracked 3 seasons he had in his note book. Sure enough Monday and Tusdays were winning an astounding 15 % less than othr days when playing good teams traveling a distance. We speculate that it is because week end games are usualy bigger games against better teams and that long travel teams have 4 -7 games to play. Good teams play their best in big events. It is an anti-climax event to play a bad team on the 2 most uneventful playing days of the week, Mon and Tues. This year Ilooked at my Monday Tues games and have been disappointed in the results. However by deleting good teams that caled for a play when long travel was involved those figures were ok, not great but ok. Keep in mind some home teams have just gotten back from a long travel schedule. This becomes just 1 more trip for them. I will not be playing many NBA games n Mon, and Tues. The same does not hold true for college because they only play 2 games aweek and they are usually close by.
Yesterday I did not do as well as I usually do. Howevr I saved myself. First of all in the NBA I got Portland at -6 1/2. The game went to -8. Remember Matchbook has both spreads. I lost the Lakers and New Jersey games badly. This is the Tuesday anti climax game for both. The lakers are traveling for a while and New Jersey just came back from a successful west coast trip. One of Dallas's key players was questionable for yesterday's game so I killed the play.It cost me 4%. The Utah game was agod one and my strongest play.They won by 3 and the opening matchbook line was+2 at +108 odds. I hit the win line at +125 also since the value spread I had was -3 1/2 Utah plus the other good things they showed. The final spread was at -2 and you only got +105 on that spread.
In colege games I was only 3-4 to the games I gave you. I was 3 points to good when adding the difference in the winning spread margin. My big play I did not give out should not surprise any good handicappers. This play comes up several times a year. Georgia was playing W KY. W KY just beat the # 3 ranked team in the nation and was their biggest game of the year since it was a home state team. I thought Ga at+ 4 1/2 would beat the spread if they were - 4 1/2. I was wrong but still covered by a 1/2 point. This is a good play and you can not go wrong when you see it. Also rmmber before playing a game look at the injury suspension list to see if any key players are questionable. Pass the game or kill the play.
Todays Card
football
This is the game I had not given out yet.
It is a strong play for me .Tenn St has been playing 10 points above the spread in their last 3 games . La Lhas been playing -23 points to the spread in the last 3 games. hot vs cold. Tenn St gotout a 45-7 lead in their last game and coasted home. La L got blown out in the lst half. One team is very confident and one is striggling. The spreadis a juicy+ 5 1/2. This is a solid play.
Bkball college
All units are 8 units until further notice as I said last week.Even if I say a play is strong, very good or good I give them an 8 unit value until about mid Dec
Ark LR, Tol, Rich, Niagra, Ga St, Temple, Mich, Aub, Iowa St ,Nw , Calif( big smart money on them once again)
NBA
You favorite team people will like this.
LAL but at -7 /12 ,Port-6, Boston no more than -14, Houston spread is ok, Char -8 1/2. All favorites today. Thats the way they came out. Unit play is 7 on all games except char which is 5. Spreads could be better.
Got to go. I have a busy schedule . Forgive the writing and spelling.
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