HOW to figure if SPREADS are OFF and Totals for NFL & NBA

OK my friends taught me this and it's so simple YOUR going to be pulling your hair out of YOUR head !

Many people cried about the OVERS in MNF game Chargers vs broncos

1st OFF realize that both teams had high scoriong games last higher than
this game opened at 48  so every body had Chagers and OVERS i saw huge % on OVERS  !

 

VEGas adjusted by adding 2.5 POINTs up to 3  and OVER was up to 50 1/2
 and 51  some books went up to 52

HERE it is folks basic math !

Pts for 239 Chargers Pts against 197

pts for 203 Broncos pt's against 252

239 +197+203+252 

 

add all 4 totals together YOU get

891 

bothy teams played 9 games

891 divided by 18 = 49.5

OMFG what did the game land ON  35 - 14 --- 49 points

 

was the 10 pt spread correct ?

YUP

cahrgers were +42  points  Broncos were  - 49  points

when you have two numers that are negative and positive you add
them together  42 +49 = 91  Divide by 9 games played = 10.1

OK now lets break it down more

 

Chargers are +4.6 pts per game Broncos are - 5.4  pts per game

 

add together to GET differnce between two objects or teams

4.6 + - 5.4 =  10   that is the differnce between these teams from the 0 line

looks like this

+ Chargers - - - --0- - - - --Broncos -

 

ok now subtract smaller from larger number

5.4- 4.6  = - 0.8   broncos

 

add the 9.5 points in 

 

charges are now - 4.9  Broncos are +4.1

 

Chargers are now -0.8 points

 

the spread is correct 

obvioulsy a teasr will not work on broncos they lost 31 points

wanna see if it would work  make charges a bigger chalk using 7 point teasr

+4.6-  16.5 pts = - 11.9   -5.4 + 16.5 = +11.1 11.9 - 11.1 = broncos +.8  points

super 13 pt teasers same results it's fucking algebra as long as you
do same thing to both sides  YOU get same results

 

make it simple for YOU Taese YOU feel that WINS the game S/U

and watch YOUR teasers turn into more winners

HOW many people Teased lions 13 points yesterday and LOST

6.5 plus 13 = 19.5   sure enough lions D couldnt stop Pats offense

and it was runaway in 2nd half

OK NEXT post will be NBA  games it's different

 

NBA games are way differnt than NFL  scheduling plays imporatnt part

YOUR Older teams when playing 4 games in 5 nights  and b 2 b  are dead meat
 home or away vs a younger team rested one night

SO NBA YOU must use the totals of 5 home games vs 5 road games of visitor

LETS look at an easy one  Lakers - 8  vs Bulls  3 nights ago

Lakers just won huge game vs a bad team they were huge favorites 10.5 and won
by 28 points win margin was 17.5 points providing Lakers with 4 st covers !

games played and rested were Equal !

OVER under was set at 201.5 

way off  what game finsihed at 

ok 5 home games of lakers totaled 561 - 503  .

so they were + 58 points divide by 5 = +11.6  pts !

 

Bulls were 477 - 494  - 17 pts  divde by 5 = -.3.4  pts !

so difference bewteen two teams is 15 pts

why are Bulls only getting 8 ?

RED flag and it shows every time YOU have a team that won a game
 by 21 points or more  next game fade them

they will not cover the spread

OK lakers + 11.6 Bulls - 3.4 means lakers are  + 8.2  points

 

Bulls go to + 4.6  lakers drop to + 3.6  points  so BUlls are now +1  point 

UHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHH we have a bad line  bulls needed to be a
way larger dog than +8  and make lakers a - 3.4 

any way it went UNDERS and BULLS hit two free throws to COVER by a point at end of game

UNDERS overs same thing  add all 4 totals together divide by 10 games played

561 503 477 494 = 203.5  = 203.5  total was set at what ? 201.5

 

uhmmmmmm vegas want YOU bet overs it clearly within the spread NOT when it';s
too easy to GO overs GO under

IF you break it down using lakers O  vs Bulls O 

 

then D vs D 

O vs D 

D vs O  you will see you two ways to go under and two ways to go overs

many times all 4 combos will show overs  and it will go overs

any way thats it when YOU have lined games in any sport use these formulas and
look at schedules for flat spots in both NFL and NBA  and watch YOUR win % go through the roof !

 

 

 

OK PEOPLE i'm really bad at typing it's hard to explain for me to transfer
 the way i was i taught to do this  simple shit but it works !

lets make it simple  ok !

COLTS - 3 vs Chargers 

PF 268  COLTS  PA 216      PF 274 CHARGERS PA 211

+52  pts ---------------------------------------- +63 pts

really showing broken down   here  

63 - 52  = 11  divide by 10 games = +1.1  pts

COLTS are +5.2  pts per game    Chargers are +6.3 pts Pergame

6.3 - 5.2 =   +1.1  pts TO Chargers

NOW subtract 3  pt spread FROM colts  and add it To Chargers

5.2 - 3   = +2.2    6.3 +3  = 9.3 

9.3  - 2.2  =  +7.1  pts for chargers 

 

um wrong team favored  here  as YOU see the pick differnce is chargers  +1.1 

spread is OFF  6 points 

 

another thing  when you have the better offense and defense taking points  YOU bet
them and YOUR'E  almost Guaranteed  a WINNER  100% of the time

 

WE all know that the Chargers give manning fits  he has worst performance vs SD 
than all the other teams combined 

 

plus without a running game Colts are very easy to beat  one dimensional

i hate to say this but  neither of these teams will be represented at the superbowl  !

YOU only possible superbowl  teams are

Steelers JETS   Saints  Eagles  PACKERS

Saints strongest edge  this year even betterthan last year  when they
averged 45 yds more offense per 16 games  in season

 

this year they are averaging 78.4 more yds of offense with a better defense  

 

but problem right now is they are -3  in turnovers  !

Steelers NEED to average at laest 48  yds more than thier opponents in reamaing
5  games they are below the needed 35 yds  for superbowl  champions  sitting at only +29.9  yds more than all opponents through 11 games

 

THIS is known as super bowl  frauds 

 

last year Colts averaged only about 25 yds more than all opponents   Saints avg. 45 yds  more than all opponents

I had posted in systems before BUT it got axed  however it's up again and updated !

some jo said how many more BS systems you have  with a thumbs down thingy 

 

i never replied  it got waxed !

OK OTHER CONTENDERS are  Eagles +82.7 yds  more tahn all opponents with +11
 in turnovers  same as steelers

 

JETS are at + 64.7  yds more than others +7 in turnovers 

 

Packers  ar weak  +33.2 yds than all opponents + 7 in turnovers

Patriots  NO FUCKING WAY IN HELL  

 

they are in the red  - 50 yds per game  out gained in 7  games  only small pluses  in 4 games

strange aint it  even thanksgiving day  LIONS out gained them in a Blowout

they are + 11 in turnovers BUT now you see why they are burning YOUR money as chalks

THIS is NOT the OLD patriots defense  that was situtional D 
they had two guys in each spot both in postion to stop you from converting 3rd and 5 

WAS a differnt defense than all other teams used  BILL Bellicick design

BUT all those great  defenders are Gone now they went young

so it's a process  developing the youth !

SO VERY POSSIBLE SUPER BOWL MATCHUPS  are

 

 Saints  vs steelers

Eagles VS  Steelers 

Steelers VS Packers 

Saints  vs Jets 

Saints Vs Steelers  already saw  that @ Saints

Eagles Vs Jets

Packers Vs Jets 

IF  any other AFC teams get in besides JETS  or Steelers

IT will be a blow out of major  proprtions on the NFC side

Packers vs Jets  or Steelers will be low scoring under the 40's

Sanits vs  either also will be low scoring  under the 40's

NO wait i forgot Dallas is dome 

 

wash that out  !

 

depends on how much they score in playoffs 

 

BUT Thats it 

 

as far as games what i come up with after sit down with my friends i'll post in game sections

again i remind YOU all i'm a female not a GUY  and wager small

 

$25 - $50   at most  $200  on one game 

Ravens vs Panthers i unloded on 

got a lil scared  when panthers put up 13  points but for sure  two more picks  came in and sealed  the win !

 

 

ty for compliments guys about my avatar but i will not tell who the girl errrr lady is in my avatar .
 YOU will not find her pic anywhere online unless someone got it from somewhere else !

Thats all i will tell you  because of my occupation my real name is nowhere online !

AS far as NBA  i will tell you one absoulte mortal LOCK every year

BET aginst the def champs in that home oponer

they never ever cover the spread  !

There is a reason and cause  and effect for these systems that keep them solid every year !

REASON NBA champs do not cover  all the pre game celebration hositing the banner
and trophy removes the Crowd emotions and team also is on a high 

Cause is meltdown and the DOG team of courseplays hard EFFECT is a squeak win that
is not even close to the spread this year the ROCKETS were a  7.5 DOG  lakers never had the
lead  and finally won by 2 points !

NBA is differnt animal than NFL  YOU use PF and PA  of 5 home games vs 5 road games of BOTH teams

Do same math as shown in nfl  add and subtract the spread  from chalk add it to the dog and see
if it's  corect as compared to the pickem results

also if either team is playing 3 games in 4 nights  on a B 2 B or 4 in 5  nights on a B 2 B 
fade them dog or favorite if an older team vs rested teams

the SPURS are noted real bad traveling on any unrested  games thier 2nd game of a B 2 B they
just never cover any spread !Totals also YOU need to see how teams play if they are BOTH heavy on Defensive side  YOUR going to see a lot of UNDERS teams that play all offense like the suns do  with no defense will cause OVERS  more than anything

SUNS should be faded as a chalk vs almsot any team they are old at every position
NO laed is safe with them i seen them blow 30 point leads in the 3rd qtr  many times !

 

Another thing to beware of teams playing on B 2 B going UP to denver  from lower alttude 
or Coming down from denver  are really bad bets vs a rested team

THE HUMAN BODY cannot adjust  within 24 hrs  from that thin air  high to low altitude  !

Thats why many teams fold up and die in 2nd halfs at DENVER because of weak bench 
and cannot give starters rest to drink plenty of fluids !NBA is a differnt Animal
than NFL but emotion runs true in both sports  many teams will play soft at home before
a home game vs biggest rival or confernce rival !

I seen it happen Blazers at HOME before a home game vs Lakers

huge chalk 15 points vs Timberwolves  boy where they flat  played the C game  to win by 1 POINT 

ok lakers the def champs come in as a 2.5 chalk !IT is known one place Lakers NEVER can win
 at is in BLazers house  wire to wire demolition of Lakers  Blazers won by  20 points !

Another thing to beware of is when any team wins a game by 21 points or more  and is off two nights
 or even one night  almost every team falls ATS the spread  !

I rember one game The BULLS hammered the heat to win by 31 points BULLS were at Home 

next Night  BULLS collpsed  as a huge fav of 8 points  Heat went home and exploded
over the other team as a small dog !ITs margin of Victory when teams score way over than they NEED to !

one game i saw earlier this yr  belive the Magic won by 42 points as an 18.5 chalk 
this was 2nd explosion from them vs poor teams next game home vs a 2-2 
decent team The NETS i think it was and check this spread out only a 16.5 
at HOME !without handicapping i took the NETS  and sure enough the magick won by 15 points !

easy $50  !

ALSO another thing to do is Chart last 5 games of both teams

 

A.T.S. just draw a line on a page thats lined like
 school note books each line is 5 points  see where
teams are headed  is one team peaked out  at plus 30 points 
and the other team is  is just below the 0  line say
like - 2  ATS headed up  ready to bust through positive side  !

Take that team  to cover the spread !

COVERS is Great to use on teams margin of points won

  A T S they show it in colors  and with a NEGATIVE sign or PLUS sign  next to the number !

YOU want the last 5  consectuive games when making the charts  !

 

NOT only the the last 5 games  at home or Road the charts will be skewered !

Kinda like looks like an EKG chart when YOUR Done

a 100%   sure shot when you have two teams headed in opposite direction
 lets say favored home won three games

+ 10  points ATS  
+ 15 points ATS then a lil dip to + 12 points ATS 
The DOG team lost 3 games in a row  - 25 points ATS  - 15 points ATS then - 3 points ATS 

this is what they mean by TWO teams headed
in OPPOSITE Directions the team headed up crosses over
 the 0 line and wins your wager  the favorite will fall below the zero line !

LATERS  !

 

OK tonight i took TWO DOGS  

 

one was Pistons at +11  the other was 76ers +3.5 

 

really was screwy that Blazers were favored at 76ers 

 

all i looked at and saw was that  blazers lost to the NETS
 the same team 76ers just beat  and according to covers blazers were missing two players OUT
 with injury this game !

I still handicapped the game as a pickem blazers were - 1  making them a favorite of 3.5 
 they went to - 2 POINTS 

 

RESULT  as i expected  a LOW scoring game   76ers blasted them  88-79  24.5 
points UNDER the posted total  of 191.5  i came up with a toatl of possible   197.4
 so it was too easy to go overs  i  gueesed UNDERS 

 

PISTONS +11  pushed  but again i saw a low scoring game  192 was posted i came up with  195.4 
but saw most of pistons road games were in 165 range  final was Magic  90 pistons 79  if i wated 
an hr later the spread went up to 11.5  and it covers !

DO the math yourself using both lines  11 and 11.5 YOU will SEE the diference 

 

Magic was  PF 515  PA 466    Pistons were PF 478  PA 495 

FUCKING amazing when YOU see the differnce that YOU know the HOOK Plays !

Laters all i'm going out for a drink !

HERES another sure shot 100%  SYSTEM for NFL  IN Playofss IF any Team beats
  the DEFNDING  Champs  and they have another playoff game  they all LOST the Game 
0 -12  S/U  1 -11  ATS  one was a DOG

LASt team that did this was Eagles after upending Giants
the champs went to Finals at Arizona  favored by 2  1/2  OMFG
 game was over at half time  Eagles made come back in 3rd qtr BUT cards
won the game s/u and theeeee worst 9-7 team ever got to the Bowl !

OK i want TO point out almost a 100%  sure shot system IN NFL

this is why the Chargers lost s/u at HOME to raiders start at the NEGATIVE
  performances   Draw a line across middle of page lined paper   like used in school books

that line is the 0  line  so start from 0 line  GO down almost  3 lines to - 14  pts ATS  that was week 5 at Oak  they lost as a fav

- 6 pts by 8 points at Rams -9  they lost by 3  so now you go up to - 12  pts 
vs Pats - 3 points they lost by 3 points now you go up to -6  points then the win streak started 

vs Titans - 3 pts win by 8 up to +5  points @ Texans - 3  pts won by 6
 so a lil dip to  + 3  points (bye week)  ok i goofed on this one i thought
 Denver would cover as a 9.5 dog or win s/u BUT they fell after huge win over KC

so Charges bolt up to  +11.5   Follow me here thats 3 st covers as a favorite  then as always at Colts  as a DOG   win the game or Cover this time they gave manning his lowest score ever at Home only 14 points  while romping as a 3.5  DOG to a 22 POINT win thus peaking out at + 25  PTS ats FROM a Negative 6 points !

when u have a NEG number vs a POS number YOU add them together  - 6 + (+25)  = 31 
points movement which of course causes a NEgative performance in 5th game after 4 st pluses !

NOw lets DO raiders  just before this game so U can see 
them side by side  this is like a Bio rhythm of THE whole team !

wk 11 @ steelers LOST as a 7 pt DOG  - 25 points ATS

wk 12 - 2 points vs Dolphins who just got back thier starting QB Henne !
 LOST BUT push them up - 18  ATS  NOW U see it one team peaked out the other team going up ward !

WIN as a DOG then favored  also  is a 65%  system fade for 22 years in NFL !
 Chargers also are Bad bets laying DD's 1- 19  ATS

Unless it's really fucked up team with multiple injuries on both sides of the ball and 3rd string qb is starting !

all others follow this carefully about charting the teams ATS results

grab a big notebook  for NBA  because you need to do several teams each day  !

NFL just a standard copybook like used in schools !

NOW again that dope posts in main NFL

 forum are people betting on Colts YET again

 week 15

I'm going to show YOU that the COLTS

 are

a

LOCK right now

draw a line across the middle  of the page

for both teams we will use just the

last 3 games  of both teams

in my book they are across from each

other because it's INDY  and JACKSONVILLE

so i got both teams BIO rhythms in front of me

COTLS last 3 games a bad loss -25  points ATS

that was vs Chargers wk 12- week 13 up to - 8 1/2

than 10 days ago as a 3 pt chalk  UP to - 1 

ready to bust through to plus side to

aveange early season loss at Jags

NOW Jaguars just last 3 games they have

covered 6 st games

lucky for them that game vs raiders was 1 pm

and not 4 pm because raiders would have

won that game

Jagusrs   +3  points  a 7 pt dog lost at NYG @ titans

+3 points won game 17 - 6   UP to +14 

pts then the downer came at home as a 4.5 chalk 

won by 7  dropping them to + 3.5 points  A T S

3 xtra  days rest and preparation for Manning the

genius

and Jaguars are not that GOOD of a team

they started out 4 - 4

 RESULT  COLTS WON HUGE  by 10 points 34 - 24

  

Remeber these systems work every year on every team because there is a cause and Effect

TRENDS only apply to ONE specific team under Certain specific Conditions

NO NFL TEAM will ever win 3 st superbowls

NO NCAA Foots Team ever will win 3 st Championships either

last one that GOT there WAS USC favored by 7 1/2  to TEXAS longhorns  LOST THE game

 

 NICE STUFF THANKS!!!

rman1049  your  welcome 

this is new thread because old one kept running off the page and cut off the sentences !

 

i'm looking for a system to follow and might take up yours.  just a few questions:

1) how did you get these numbers for the chargers & broncos game. 239+197+203+252 and charegers +42 and broncos -49

scan  

1) how did you get these numbers for the chargers & broncos game. 239+197+203+252 and charegers +42 and broncos -49

 

how many points scored by each team andf how many points allowed by each team

add all 4 totals togther  dived by total number of games played and YOU should see the corect Total

within the spread 

if YOU have a 7 point spread the total you have vs posted total should be within  7 points of it

like maybe posted total is 47  you come up with  54  you should get an overs game taking into accounts how many points were scored in last tow games of both teams also very imporatnt

if BOTH had high scroing games just thier side  predict an unders game to follow

like say they both scored high 20's or 30's  last two games

most likely both offenses were gassed not much left to give  especailly if they scored over 14 points more than opposition

no matter how strong thier offense is YOU will get a low scoring game by that favored team

Patriots tho just about every game they played win or lose is high scoring thier defense just gives up too many yards and points

every team they faced scored at laest 21 points aginst them

ok 10 teams scored over 21 points agisnt patriots

the + 42 for cahgers is how many points they are + vs points allowed  the - 49 for denver is how many points they are Negative vs what they scored  simply means they are - points because of so many huge losses !

 

Hmmmm....your nba system doesn't seem to work

it is NOT a system it's a tool used to handicap the games according to schedule and points scored and allowed  using 5 road games and 5 home games for each team

 

Sorry I mislabeled it, but it still doesn't seem to work in regards to the over/unders.

It works great for me. I tested it first before I started it,  last night was the first time in nba and ncaab i'm  5-2. In order for it to be used as a capping tool you need to set some filters. I stay with in 5 pts of the total, for example if the line is at 5-6 points over or under the total points I got its a play. I also look at if teams played the last 5-10 days, travel and injuries.  Really liked the high altitude plays traveling to and from denver/colorado I used it on 2 games last night in ncaab and both hit