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How much historical proof would you want... (NFL ATS)

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
How much historical proof would you want before you trusted a system for picking NFL winners against the spread? 

I've been working on several mathematical models for picking winners. Not using any regression techniques -- ie not trying to look at the existing data and fit a model to it, rather developing a model and then running it against historical NFL data to test how well it does season after season. 

This season I've started betting my highest performing algorithm, and although it is early in the season still it is doing well. I've ran historical data from every season 1995 up and the algorithm has done very well (75+% ATS). 

What would it take to convince you on a mathematical model? Obviously if this year goes well, with me actually betting the algorithm live, and performs up to its historical levels that will make me a believer!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
will you be posting your picks on this thread for the rest of the season?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by d_opie:

will you be posting your picks on this thread for the rest of the season?


Putting the picks up in the NFL Betting forum. This weeks are here:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101956744

Currently 22-10 (69%) for the season, up 29.4 units. I'm betting exactly as the algorithm picks, except I'm also running some parlays with the picks as well. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
can you post the yearly percentages and the picks for the past 3 weeks of this season please?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Past six season results, using spread information found from the sun4cast spread sheet (search sun4cast nfl and you'll find it). I can't personally verify the spreads on this sheet, but it is all I have to work with currently.

Bets range between 1 and 3 Units depending on confidence of the pick.
2008 - 158-49-5 (75%), +237.7 Units
2009 - 174-21-2 (84%), +329.1 Units
2010 - 144-42-11 (73%), +222.5 Units
2011 - 149-39-4 (78%), +255.1 Units
2012 - 155-43-4 (77%), +240.3 Units
2013 - 156-32-3 (82%), +274.5 Units

2014 Season so far
Week 1 10-3, +18.6 4U:
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) - Play: 3U on Seattle Seahawks - Result: Won 2.73 units
Minnesota Vikings @ St Louis Rams (+3.5) - Play: 3U on St Louis Rams - Result: Lost -3.00 units
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5) - Play: 3U on Pittsburgh Steelers - Result: Won 2.73 units
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles (+10.5) - Play: 3U on Philadelphia Eagles - Result: Won 2.73 units
Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets (+5.5) - Play: 2U on New York Jets - Result: Won 1.82 units
Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears (+7.5) - Play: 3U on Chicago Bears - Result: Won 2.73 units
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) - Play: 1U on Kansas City Chiefs - Result: Lost -1.00 units
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-4.5) - Play: 1U on New England Patriots - Result: Lost -1.00 units
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) - Play: 1U on Carolina Panthers - Result: Won 0.91 units
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) - Play: 3U on San Francisco 49ers - Result: Won 2.73 units
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (+7.5) - Play: 3U on Denver Broncos - Result: Won 2.73 units
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions (+6.5) - Play: 3U on Detroit Lions - Result: Won 2.73 units
San Diego Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) - Play: 2U on Arizona Cardinals - Result: Won 1.82 units 

Week 2 8-3, +8.64U:
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers (+3.5) - Play: 3U on Carolina Panthers - Result: Won 2.73 units
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-1.5) - Play: 1U on Buffalo Bills - Result: Won 0.91 units
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Redskins (+6.5) - Play: 1U on Washington Redskins - Result: Won 0.91 units
Dallas Cowboys @ Tennessee Titans (+4.5) - Play: 1U on Tennessee Titans - Result: Lost -1.00 units
New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) - Play: 1U on New England Patriots - Result: Won 0.91 units
Atlanta Falcons @ Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) - Play: 3U on Cincinnati Bengals - Result: Won 2.73 units
St Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) - Play: 1U on Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Result: Won 0.91 units
Seattle Seahawks @ San Diego Chargers (-6.5) - Play: 1U on Seattle Seahawks - Result: Lost -1.00 units
New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers (+8.5) - Play: 3U on Green Bay Packers - Result: Won 2.73 units
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (+13.5) - Play: 2U on Denver Broncos - Result: Won 1.82 units
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) - Play: 3U on San Francisco 49ers - Result: Lost -3.00 units

Week 3 4-4, +2.09 U
Dallas Cowboys @ St Louis Rams (0.0) - Play: 1U on St Louis Rams - Result: Lost -1.00 units
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) - Play: 3U on Philadelphia Eagles - Result: Lost -3.00 units
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-10.0) - Play: 3U on New Orleans Saints - Result: Won 2.73 units
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) - Play: 3U on Cincinnati Bengals - Result: Won 2.73 units
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-2.0) - Play: 2U on Detroit Lions - Result: Won 1.82 units
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins (-4.0) - Play: 2U on Kansas City Chiefs - Result: Won 1.82 units
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5) - Play: 2U on Carolina Panthers - Result: Lost -2.00 units
Chicago Bears @ New York Jets (-3.0) - Play: 1U on New York Jets - Result: Lost -1.00 units

Week 4 linked above. I'll keep this thread updated with results as the season progresses. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
thank you. 

i can't open those spreadsheets with my chromebook, but i'm a little confused. i don't know if those lines just closed way different from covers/killersports/the book i use, or what. are the spreads in parentheses the away team? because that's the only way i can make sense of it (i know denver was a home fave to indy), but i also know that denver only beat indy by 7, and pit only beat cle by 3 points (not more than 8), so i'm not sure what's going on. sorry, could you please clarify? 

thank you. i'm in agreement with most of your picks for this week, as well.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Ordinaryday6:

thank you. 

i can't open those spreadsheets with my chromebook, but i'm a little confused. i don't know if those lines just closed way different from covers/killersports/the book i use, or what. are the spreads in parentheses the away team? because that's the only way i can make sense of it (i know denver was a home fave to indy), but i also know that denver only beat indy by 7, and pit only beat cle by 3 points (not more than 8), so i'm not sure what's going on. sorry, could you please clarify? 

thank you. i'm in agreement with most of your picks for this week, as well.

 

I was going to say the same thing.  The win/loss results are not matching up.  Something seems a bit fishy here.

 
Captain
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Posted: #8
 Your point spreads are way off on many games!  You are making big home favorites, big home underdogs.  Thus, your record is fraudulent, and likely less than 50% ATS.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Definitely looks like something has gone awry with the import of data. Obviously that completely invalidates the historical analysis. I knew it was performing too good to be true. I'll correct the mistake and start from scratch. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
You might want to use a data site instead of a spread sheet. Covers, or killersports/sportsdatabase
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Sadburger:

Definitely looks like something has gone awry with the import of data. Obviously that completely invalidates the historical analysis. I knew it was performing too good to be true. I'll correct the mistake and start from scratch. 

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