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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    How I Made $72,000 in 2008 - FREE System

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    ColonelDave
    elithepunk
    Underdog11
    rjohnny
    STAXXX
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    ColonelDave
    ColonelDave
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2007
    Posts: 55
    Posted: Mar. 30, 2009 - 10:09 PM ET #1

    How I Made $72,000 in 2008

    You must agree with these two statements to understand my system:

    1. I don’t know a single person who makes a living betting sports.

    2. If you bet on sports, over time you will lose.

    If you agree with both statements, please continue.
    If not, please seek help immediately - GamblersAnonymous.org

    It is a well known fact that casinos and sportsbooks rely on a simple mathematic edge to generate billions of dollars. This edge is so valuable and so heavily guarded that if you attempt to remove it (ex. counting cards in blackjack) you will be shut down immediately and escorted from the building.

    I’ve always asked myself “How can I turn the tables and gain the mathematical edge?”

    After years of brainstorming, I’ve finally figured it out.

    I’ve tested it, perfected it and have been winning consistently with it. I want to share it with as many people I can.

    You should be asking yourself right now “Ok, so if it’s so good, why would you share it?”

    I hope you did. That tells me you are smart enough to understand it.

    To answer that important question, you must know my motive. I’ve been a recreational sports gambler for as long as I can remember. I’ve had terrific wins and disastrous losses. Like all gamblers, the lows far outweigh the highs. I won’t waste your time with my cautionary tales; you’ve probably experienced or witnessed most of them. Needless to say - BOOKIES ARE THE ENEMY and now I have the upper hand.

    The System

    To this point, you understand that a sports bettor cannot win consistently over time. He can win over the short term however, by putting together the so called “hot” streaks and winning streaks. Anyone who’s been around gambling knows that these streaks do end. Mathematically, a bettor will range close to 50% over time whether he’s an “expert” or novice. This is not an opinion. This is a fact.

    After bettors come off a huge week or two, I’d do anything to book their action. Sure a couple of them will hold their own, but mathematically the majority of them will give back. The key to this system is to get that action exclusively.

    How can we do this?

    We wait for these streaks and then WE BET AGAINST THEM.

    If you’re fortunate enough to have access to gamblers accounts at any given sportsbook, it would work but you have to keep track of all the records. I use
    When is the perfect opportunity? After months of trial and error, I’ve found that there are two optimal situations:

    1. A bettor has won 9 or more straight games.

    2. A bettor has won 17 of his last 20 games.

    What should I do?
    In both situations I will now ride AGAINST the bettor for 10 games. If I win 4 or 5 of my first 5 bets I take my profit and move on after only 5 games.

    How much do I bet?
    I like to use 5% of my starting bankroll. For example, if your bankroll is $500 you would bet $25 a game.

    *IMPORTANT*
    Do not use the
    Martingale System. Never double up your bets when one loses. It will be very tempting after you start winning frequently. Once in a while a player remains hot for an extended period and doubling up on those loses will eliminate far too many of your wins.

    You may consider increasing your wagers in relation to your bankroll. For example, if your $500 bankroll is now $1000, increase to $50 a game and so on. The key is to stay consistent.

    How often should I expect to win?
    After 15 months of implementation, I’ve won 68% of my games using this system. That’s just shy of an astounding 7 out of every 10!

    Can I try it without risking any money?
    You absolutely can and should try it without using any money. Simply chart your performance without betting a dollar. Once you see for yourself first hand the value of this system, you can begin small and increase with time.

    Does it work with all sports?
    Yes. Plus, a bettor may have only been hot in one specific sport and that is the sport you focus on.

    How do I thank you?
    You can share this system with friends and crush your bookmaker.
    Reply
    Quote Post
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    Report User
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    How I Made $72,000 in 2008

    You must agree with these two statements to understand my system:

    1. I don’t know a single person who makes a living betting sports.

    2. If you bet on sports, over time you will lose.

    If you agree with both statements, please continue.
    If not, please seek help immediately - GamblersAnonymous.org

    It is a well known fact that casinos and sportsbooks rely on a simple mathematic edge to generate billions of dollars. This edge is so valuable and so heavily guarded that if you attempt to remove it (ex. counting cards in blackjack) you will be shut down immediately and escorted from the building.

    I’ve always asked myself “How can I turn the tables and gain the mathematical edge?”

    After years of brainstorming, I’ve finally figured it out.

    I’ve tested it, perfected it and have been winning consistently with it. I want to share it with as many people I can.

    You should be asking yourself right now “Ok, so if it’s so good, why would you share it?”

    I hope you did. That tells me you are smart enough to understand it.

    To answer that important question, you must know my motive. I’ve been a recreational sports gambler for as long as I can remember. I’ve had terrific wins and disastrous losses. Like all gamblers, the lows far outweigh the highs. I won’t waste your time with my cautionary tales; you’ve probably experienced or witnessed most of them. Needless to say - BOOKIES ARE THE ENEMY and now I have the upper hand.

    The System

    To this point, you understand that a sports bettor cannot win consistently over time. He can win over the short term however, by putting together the so called “hot” streaks and winning streaks. Anyone who’s been around gambling knows that these streaks do end. Mathematically, a bettor will range close to 50% over time whether he’s an “expert” or novice. This is not an opinion. This is a fact.

    After bettors come off a huge week or two, I’d do anything to book their action. Sure a couple of them will hold their own, but mathematically the majority of them will give back. The key to this system is to get that action exclusively.

    How can we do this?

    We wait for these streaks and then WE BET AGAINST THEM.

    If you’re fortunate enough to have access to gamblers accounts at any given sportsbook, it would work but you have to keep track of all the records. I use
    When is the perfect opportunity? After months of trial and error, I’ve found that there are two optimal situations:

    1. A bettor has won 9 or more straight games.

    2. A bettor has won 17 of his last 20 games.

    What should I do?
    In both situations I will now ride AGAINST the bettor for 10 games. If I win 4 or 5 of my first 5 bets I take my profit and move on after only 5 games.

    How much do I bet?
    I like to use 5% of my starting bankroll. For example, if your bankroll is $500 you would bet $25 a game.

    *IMPORTANT*
    Do not use the
    Martingale System. Never double up your bets when one loses. It will be very tempting after you start winning frequently. Once in a while a player remains hot for an extended period and doubling up on those loses will eliminate far too many of your wins.

    You may consider increasing your wagers in relation to your bankroll. For example, if your $500 bankroll is now $1000, increase to $50 a game and so on. The key is to stay consistent.

    How often should I expect to win?
    After 15 months of implementation, I’ve won 68% of my games using this system. That’s just shy of an astounding 7 out of every 10!

    Can I try it without risking any money?
    You absolutely can and should try it without using any money. Simply chart your performance without betting a dollar. Once you see for yourself first hand the value of this system, you can begin small and increase with time.

    Does it work with all sports?
    Yes. Plus, a bettor may have only been hot in one specific sport and that is the sport you focus on.

    How do I thank you?
    You can share this system with friends and crush your bookmaker.
     
    elithepunk
    elithepunk
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Apr, 2007
    Posts: 3552
    Posted: Mar. 30, 2009 - 10:27 PM ET #2

      nothing new here ... simply a play on strong trends

    However, it is refreshing to read about your solid money management. BOL this year.
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      nothing new here ... simply a play on strong trends

    However, it is refreshing to read about your solid money management. BOL this year.
     
    elithepunk
    elithepunk
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    Joined: Apr, 2007
    Posts: 3552
    Posted: Mar. 30, 2009 - 10:28 PM ET #3

    oh and excellent write-up ( was it copied from somewhere in particular ? )


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    oh and excellent write-up ( was it copied from somewhere in particular ? )


     
    ColonelDave
    ColonelDave
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    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2007
    Posts: 55
    Posted: Mar. 30, 2009 - 10:41 PM ET #4

    Thank you, I wrote it up myself based on my experiences. I'm not looking for praise or money for this system. I just want to help other gamblers out.
    Reply
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    Thank you, I wrote it up myself based on my experiences. I'm not looking for praise or money for this system. I just want to help other gamblers out.
     
    Underdog11
    Underdog11
    Covers Rehab
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 1218
    Posted: Mar. 30, 2009 - 11:31 PM ET #5

    Good post, I use this myself not in the exact context but very similar.  As everything seems to even-up often times I will go against extreme percentages.
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    Good post, I use this myself not in the exact context but very similar.  As everything seems to even-up often times I will go against extreme percentages.
     
    rjohnny
    rjohnny
    Prospect
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    Joined: Mar, 2009
    Posts: 24
    Posted: Mar. 30, 2009 - 11:31 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by ColonelDave:

    Thank you, I wrote it up myself based on my experiences. I'm not looking for praise or money for this system. I just want to help other gamblers out.


    If you want to help out then post your picks. they are to many cappers on their to fade.
    Reply
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    Quote Originally Posted by ColonelDave:

    Thank you, I wrote it up myself based on my experiences. I'm not looking for praise or money for this system. I just want to help other gamblers out.


    If you want to help out then post your picks. they are to many cappers on their to fade.
     
    ColonelDave
    ColonelDave
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2007
    Posts: 55
    Posted: Mar. 30, 2009 - 11:50 PM ET #7

    Actually right now there’s only one capper that fits my criteria. It is a user named “DSizzle” - He’s been graded on 738 picks and has a 368-361-9 record. His current 9 game win streak is out of the ordinary for him. It is his longest steak to date. Starting tomorrow I will begin fading him. I will post his picks here.

    Reply
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    Actually right now there’s only one capper that fits my criteria. It is a user named “DSizzle” - He’s been graded on 738 picks and has a 368-361-9 record. His current 9 game win streak is out of the ordinary for him. It is his longest steak to date. Starting tomorrow I will begin fading him. I will post his picks here.

     
    elithepunk
    elithepunk
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    Joined: Apr, 2007
    Posts: 3552
    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 12:00 AM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by ColonelDave:

     His current 9 game win streak is out of the ordinary for him. It is his longest steak to date. Starting tomorrow I will begin fading him. I will post his picks here.



    Great. Was just about to ask for the same request. Will be interesting to see if the trend (of fading them) still holds true.

    Quick question though. Will you fade away without taking into consideration the juice involved in the play? Or do these cappers always settle for straight-forward bets?
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    Quote Originally Posted by ColonelDave:

     His current 9 game win streak is out of the ordinary for him. It is his longest steak to date. Starting tomorrow I will begin fading him. I will post his picks here.



    Great. Was just about to ask for the same request. Will be interesting to see if the trend (of fading them) still holds true.

    Quick question though. Will you fade away without taking into consideration the juice involved in the play? Or do these cappers always settle for straight-forward bets?
     
    ColonelDave
    ColonelDave
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    Posts: 55
    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 12:13 AM ET #9

    I would avoid high money lines in the NHL & MLB. Try to keep it as close to the standard 10% vig as possible. The irony is, I rarely have to worry about it. The cappers I fade are almost always on the chalk.

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    I would avoid high money lines in the NHL & MLB. Try to keep it as close to the standard 10% vig as possible. The irony is, I rarely have to worry about it. The cappers I fade are almost always on the chalk.

     
    STAXXX
    STAXXX
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    Joined: Jan, 2009
    Posts: 125
    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 12:28 AM ET #10

    You fail to mention that it cost at least $10 to get a persons pick.  So if you flat bet and lose, you lose the bet and are also out the $10 for the pick.  Kind of a double whammy if you ask me.  I think you have ownership in the site and are looking to increase sales....
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    You fail to mention that it cost at least $10 to get a persons pick.  So if you flat bet and lose, you lose the bet and are also out the $10 for the pick.  Kind of a double whammy if you ask me.  I think you have ownership in the site and are looking to increase sales....
     
    ColonelDave
    ColonelDave
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    Posts: 55
    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 12:59 AM ET #11

    Given the industry, I would use the same caution Staxxx. Since I’ve yet to meet a winning gambler with a closed mouth (myself included), winning systems gets shared and the $10 pick becomes $3.33 each when you’re working with a couple buddies.

     

    I prefer to use Youcapper because the cappers are actually trying hard to win to sell their picks. There is a monetary incentive. Without it, it simply wouldn’t work. Anyone who’s played in a free online poker room knows what I mean.

     

    Additionally, “DSizzle” has had three of tomorrow's NCAA basketball picks for sale all day. If I had access to them I would’ve posted them already. The fact is I didn’t buy them yet.

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    Given the industry, I would use the same caution Staxxx. Since I’ve yet to meet a winning gambler with a closed mouth (myself included), winning systems gets shared and the $10 pick becomes $3.33 each when you’re working with a couple buddies.

     

    I prefer to use Youcapper because the cappers are actually trying hard to win to sell their picks. There is a monetary incentive. Without it, it simply wouldn’t work. Anyone who’s played in a free online poker room knows what I mean.

     

    Additionally, “DSizzle” has had three of tomorrow's NCAA basketball picks for sale all day. If I had access to them I would’ve posted them already. The fact is I didn’t buy them yet.

     
    elithepunk
    elithepunk
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 7:54 AM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by ColonelDave:

     

    I prefer to use Youcapper because the cappers are actually trying hard to win to sell their picks. There is a monetary incentive. Without it, it simply wouldn’t work. Anyone who’s played in a free online poker room knows what I mean.

     



    While this is very true, does it merit shelling out 10$. Not so sure. Like STAXXX points out, that's quite the bit of information to fail to mention when considering your strategy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ColonelDave:

     

    I prefer to use Youcapper because the cappers are actually trying hard to win to sell their picks. There is a monetary incentive. Without it, it simply wouldn’t work. Anyone who’s played in a free online poker room knows what I mean.

     



    While this is very true, does it merit shelling out 10$. Not so sure. Like STAXXX points out, that's quite the bit of information to fail to mention when considering your strategy.
     
    ColonelDave
    ColonelDave
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 12:26 PM ET #13

    Let’s not turn this into “The Youcapper System” because it’s not. You can follow any handicappers you want. This is exactly how I’ve had success. Had I not mentioned my source of handicapper stats, you would’ve asked.

     

    As I continue to spread the word of this successful system, I’ll omit my source and see what happens.

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    Let’s not turn this into “The Youcapper System” because it’s not. You can follow any handicappers you want. This is exactly how I’ve had success. Had I not mentioned my source of handicapper stats, you would’ve asked.

     

    As I continue to spread the word of this successful system, I’ll omit my source and see what happens.

     
    manifesto
    manifesto
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 12:44 PM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by ColonelDave:

    Let’s not turn this into “The Youcapper System” because it’s not. You can follow any handicappers you want. This is exactly how I’ve had success. Had I not mentioned my source of handicapper stats, you would’ve asked.

     

    As I continue to spread the word of this successful system, I’ll omit my source and see what happens.

    You can go to Wagerline Contests and look at the Streak Survivor contest.   28 guys with streaks of 9 or more.   Free.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ColonelDave:

    Let’s not turn this into “The Youcapper System” because it’s not. You can follow any handicappers you want. This is exactly how I’ve had success. Had I not mentioned my source of handicapper stats, you would’ve asked.

     

    As I continue to spread the word of this successful system, I’ll omit my source and see what happens.

    You can go to Wagerline Contests and look at the Streak Survivor contest.   28 guys with streaks of 9 or more.   Free.

     
    manifesto
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 12:57 PM ET #15

    Since the theory here (well I guess it is not really a theory, it is more of a fact) that once a guy falls off a streak he will lose a high percentage in the next 5 or 10 picks, you would probably be better off waiting for the first loss rather than betting into the streak.    The longest streak I saw in there was 20, but several 15s and 13s.    So rather than trying to catch a falling knife, you are better off waiting for a loss then jumping in....I am going to track this based on the contest for a week or so.   I will post back the results....
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    Since the theory here (well I guess it is not really a theory, it is more of a fact) that once a guy falls off a streak he will lose a high percentage in the next 5 or 10 picks, you would probably be better off waiting for the first loss rather than betting into the streak.    The longest streak I saw in there was 20, but several 15s and 13s.    So rather than trying to catch a falling knife, you are better off waiting for a loss then jumping in....I am going to track this based on the contest for a week or so.   I will post back the results....
     
    STAXXX
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 1:48 PM ET #16

    Still though if you are flat betting I don't see the possibility of the returns you say you made.  Since each game is an event of it's own.  Once a person wins 9 in a row, the previous results have no bearing on future results.  So its not automatic that the player will lose his 10th play.  The player could just as easily win another 9 in a row.  Did you experience this where a player kept winning so you quit?  I would believe some progression has to be made to win profit doing this....
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    Still though if you are flat betting I don't see the possibility of the returns you say you made.  Since each game is an event of it's own.  Once a person wins 9 in a row, the previous results have no bearing on future results.  So its not automatic that the player will lose his 10th play.  The player could just as easily win another 9 in a row.  Did you experience this where a player kept winning so you quit?  I would believe some progression has to be made to win profit doing this....
     
    ColonelDave
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 2:03 PM ET #17

    That is a great find manifesto. I am going to try to track it as well. I myself am not as concerned with the falling knife for two reasons:

     

    1. Of 80226 contestants, only 14 currently have more than 9 wins.

    2. I never double up on losses (see *Important* in my system)

     

    If anyone knows of other FREE charts of handicapper’s stats please let me know. I’m interested in handicappers who are provided an incentive for good performance.

     

    Staxxx, I understand that each game has its own probability. That’s why I’m against the Martingale System. It is possible for a capper to win 19 in a row and I lose 10 bets. I am prepared for that to happen by not doubling up. It may hurt my bankroll but won’t take me out of the black.

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    That is a great find manifesto. I am going to try to track it as well. I myself am not as concerned with the falling knife for two reasons:

     

    1. Of 80226 contestants, only 14 currently have more than 9 wins.

    2. I never double up on losses (see *Important* in my system)

     

    If anyone knows of other FREE charts of handicapper’s stats please let me know. I’m interested in handicappers who are provided an incentive for good performance.

     

    Staxxx, I understand that each game has its own probability. That’s why I’m against the Martingale System. It is possible for a capper to win 19 in a row and I lose 10 bets. I am prepared for that to happen by not doubling up. It may hurt my bankroll but won’t take me out of the black.

     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 2:14 PM ET #18

     Took the link out.  No links to paid cappers picks.
     
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     Took the link out.  No links to paid cappers picks.
     
     
    STAXXX
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 2:27 PM ET #19

    Wagerline is the best out there.  So basically you wait for a guy with 9 wins, then you fade him, hoping he lose's the majority of his next bets...
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    Wagerline is the best out there.  So basically you wait for a guy with 9 wins, then you fade him, hoping he lose's the majority of his next bets...
     
    manifesto
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 2:42 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by ColonelDave:

     

     

    1. Of 80226 contestants, only 14 currently have more than 9 wins.

     

    Dave, that is current streaks.   If you look at the "All Stars" menu option, you can see that there are 111 streaks of 15 or more since they started running this thing back in 2001, so about 14 year, although my guess is it would not be linear because the I am sure the number of participants has grown dramatically in the past few years.    If you are going to use this as your source of finding guys to fade, I think you may want to raise your bar to 12 or 13 possibly....otherwise there will be too many to fade (i.e. not practical to fade 14 picks although there may be some overlap between the guys).

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    Quote Originally Posted by ColonelDave:

     

     

    1. Of 80226 contestants, only 14 currently have more than 9 wins.

     

    Dave, that is current streaks.   If you look at the "All Stars" menu option, you can see that there are 111 streaks of 15 or more since they started running this thing back in 2001, so about 14 year, although my guess is it would not be linear because the I am sure the number of participants has grown dramatically in the past few years.    If you are going to use this as your source of finding guys to fade, I think you may want to raise your bar to 12 or 13 possibly....otherwise there will be too many to fade (i.e. not practical to fade 14 picks although there may be some overlap between the guys).

     
    iamian
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 3:17 PM ET #21

    I dont know if Streak Survivor is the best place to search for fades
    because people are quite selective here -choosing only the best picks -
    sometimes waiting few days...
     
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    I dont know if Streak Survivor is the best place to search for fades
    because people are quite selective here -choosing only the best picks -
    sometimes waiting few days...
     
     
    ColonelDave
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 4:10 PM ET #22

    Oh, I see. I am new to the Streak Survivor. You may have solved our problem by bumping up our criteria manifesto. Iamian may is right, they do seem to perform slightly better than what I’m used to.

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    Oh, I see. I am new to the Streak Survivor. You may have solved our problem by bumping up our criteria manifesto. Iamian may is right, they do seem to perform slightly better than what I’m used to.

     
    elithepunk
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 4:37 PM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by ColonelDave:

    Oh, I see. I am new to the Streak Survivor. You may have solved our problem by bumping up our criteria manifesto. Iamian may is right, they do seem to perform slightly better than what I’m used to.



    Interesting development in this thread. It basically boils down to where the picks come from. You were right in assuming that the question of where to find the picks would appear eventually but the issue is still the same right now. Does the survivor contest provide valid picks to fade after the end of the streak. I really don't think so. It's just not the same as someone who is picking every day.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ColonelDave:

    Oh, I see. I am new to the Streak Survivor. You may have solved our problem by bumping up our criteria manifesto. Iamian may is right, they do seem to perform slightly better than what I’m used to.



    Interesting development in this thread. It basically boils down to where the picks come from. You were right in assuming that the question of where to find the picks would appear eventually but the issue is still the same right now. Does the survivor contest provide valid picks to fade after the end of the streak. I really don't think so. It's just not the same as someone who is picking every day.
     
    Anita z
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    Posted: Mar. 31, 2009 - 7:25 PM ET #24

    So  where do we  get  the  plays?
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    So  where do we  get  the  plays?
     
     
    Underdog11
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    Posted: Apr. 1, 2009 - 1:11 AM ET #25

    from my ass
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    from my ass
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