HOCKEY ODDS -CHASE-EXPANDED

I wanted to keep this seperate from the other "all or nothing" thread i have going. Thanks to suggestions on my other thread I have decided to take this one step further,as follows

1) I will run 4 seperate 3 game chases

2) goal of each chase is to double investment (at -220 it takes  19 wins)

3) If a chase goes broke it ends until the other 3 have completed

4) I am looking on average to win 3 of 4 chases for a 50% increase to overall project roll each time

5) as per the streak calculator i ran, the odds of something with a 28% chance of losing  3 in a row over a 19 game sample is about 24% - hence on average i should win 3 of 4 chases. winning 2 of 4 would be break even

5) I will be using the same betting progression as my other thread (7%..23%...70%)

6) i may mix in some NCAAB or NBA faves of -200 to -240 or so if i see some i like..obviously if this is succesful i would like to incorporate other sports to keep this going year round.

- sounds good in theory ?..lets do it !

Overall Project Roll

Start $400

 

Chase 1

start roll $100

current roll $100

wins left to double - 19

Level 1-Leafs/Thrashers ODD    $7 to win $3.18

 

Chase 2

start roll $100

current roll $100

wins left to double - 19

Level 1-Canes/Lightning  ODD    $7 to win $3,13

Chase 3

start roll $100

current roll $100

wins left to double - 19

Level 1-Ducks/Bruins ODD   $7 to win $3.13

 

Chase 4

start roll $100

current roll $100

wins left to double - 19

Level 1-Wild/Flames ODD  $7 to win $3.13

sorry..all "to wins" should be $3.18...

What is the play? Level 1-Leafs/Thrashers ODD    $7 to win $3.18

Toronto +1.5, -285?

total goals in the game will be ODD  (i.e  2-1 ..3-2...4-1..etc..)

LIke it Neilsy!!!!

I've been searching as well.  Only one I've found is SportsInteraction, but the -250 compared to -220 makes quite the difference long term.

Chase 1

start roll $100

current roll $103.18

wins left to double - 18

Level 1-Leafs/Thrashers ODD    $7 to win $3.18

 

Chase 2

start roll $100

current roll $100

wins left to double - 19

Level 1-Canes/Lightning  ODD    $7 to win $3,13

Chase 3

start roll $100

current roll $103,13

wins left to double - 18

Level 1-Ducks/Bruins ODD   $7 to win $3.13

 

Chase 4

start roll $100

current roll $103.13

wins left to double - 18

Level 1-Wild/Flames ODD  $7 to win $3.13

Chase 1

start roll $100

current roll $103.18

wins left to double - 18

Level 1-Ducks Sabres ODD    $7.22 to win $3.28

 

Chase 2

start roll $100

current roll $93

wins left to double - 19

Level 2- Habs/Stars  ODD   $23 to win $10.45

Chase 3

start roll $100

current roll $103,18

wins left to double - 18

Level 1- Blues/Thrashers  ODD    $7.22 to win $3.28

Chase 4

start roll $100

current roll $103.18

wins left to double - 18

Level 1- Kings/Avs  ODD    $7.22 to win $3.28

 

Chase 1

start roll $100

current roll $106.46

wins left to double - 17

Level 1-Ducks Sabres ODD    $7.22 to win $3.28

 

Chase 2

start roll $100

current roll $103.45

wins left to double - 18

Level 2- Habs/Stars  ODD   $23 to win $10.45

Chase 3

start roll $100

current roll $103,18

wins left to double - 18

Level 1- Blues/Thrashers  ODD    $7.22 to win $3.28

Chase 4

start roll $100

current roll $106.46

wins left to double - 18

Level 1- Kings/Avs  ODD    $7.22 to win $3.28

 

Hmmm... I hope the success from your other thread isn't causing you to go overboard. Tread lightly as chasing is fatalistic enough, let alone chasing such terrible odds. You're a smart dude and seem to have it figured out so I don't want to preach but if you really had it figured out, you wouldn't be doing this. I hope this is just a small chunk of your change but when you start talking about doing this year round... it makes me think otherwise. Good luck either way (you're going to need it).

Hey DJ ...your points are well taken ..obviously i am not going overboard with this.. (i.e betting $7 to win $3.18 )..on the other hand, i am simply relying on the math--

5) as per the streak calculator i ran, the odds of something with a 28% chance of losing  3 in a row over a 19 game sample is about 24% - hence on average i should win 3 of 4 chases. winning 2 of 4 would be break even

Is this flawed thinking?.. maybe..One thing I try to never do is discount any or all ideas or to make limiting assumptions (i.e - all chases are fatalistic)...Really i am just trying to find different angles, I am much more interested in trying to find a mechanical,mathematical type formula, then trying to predict the unpredictable (Sports results), day in and day out through hours of handicapping , which unfortunately i just dont have time for (career,wife,kids ,etc) ....No doubt i wolud much rather find a non -chasing formula, and I have for Baseball ..however when it comes to Hockey and Hoops ...nothin yet... So for now, i am just gonna see how this plays out..

Chase 1

start roll $100

current roll $106.46

wins left to double - 17

Level 1-Pens/Panthers ODD   $7.45 to win $3.34

 

Chase 2

start roll $100

current roll $103.45

wins left to double - 18

Level 1-Canucks/Wings ODD     $7.24 to win $3.29

Chase 3

start roll $100

current roll $103,18

wins left to double - 18

Level 2  - NCAAB   Indiana -220    $23.73 to win $10.79

Chase 4

start roll $100

current roll $106.46

wins left to double - 18

Level 1- Preds/Hawks  ODD   $7.45  to win $3.34

 

 

 

Which is why I think you're a smart dude because you at least know what you want... but I'm definitely not limiting anything by saying all chases are fatalistic, BECAUSE THEY ARE. Chasing ONLY works if you have unlimited money, unlimited time, and no restrictions on wager amounts. 

The chance of losing all three bets in a given series is q to the power of 3 where q equals the probability of losing (or 1 - probability of winning). Your probability of winning on a -220 bet is 68.75% so the probability of losing is 31.25% Put that in decimal form, then to the power of 3 and you get 3.05% so the probability of not busting in a three-game series is 96.95%, which sounds not too bad, right?

Wrong -- the expected amount won is (3*.9695) = 2.91; the expected amount lost is (100*0.0305) = 3.05, so overall you can expect to lose 14 cents.

Because losing 14 cents per bet on average is a more abstract way of looking at it, an alternative analysis is to see how long you can avoid a losing streak. I won't do all the math but the more you bet, the more likely it becomes that you bust. For example, although the probability of losing any given series is only 3.05%, make 20 bets and the percentage jumps to 32.38%, make 100 bets and it again jumps to 87.59%, by the time you hit 255 plays, you're almost guaranteed to have bust completely with a 99.54% chance.

This is why chasing is not a good short or longterm strategy... I thought Supereagle's downfall would have taught everyone this lesson. So like I said, good luck, you're going to need it! 

DJ, you make very very good points and every investor, not gambler, should understand the points your making. 

I think your being a little critical of him though.  His bankroll for these projects is $500.  It isn't like its life threatening if it doesn't work out (good chance like you explained).  Everyone can go back on there merry way of trying to find the next best thing. 

I just don't think its that bad of an idea to try something like this as long as A MAIN BANKROLL isn't being utilized for these kind of things. 

by the time you hit 255 plays, you're almost guaranteed to have bust completely with a 99.54% chance.

exactly why this is a 19 game chase ..obviously if you chase anything long enough you will lose ..using your number of 255 plays before busting ..means i will have completed just over 4 sets of 4 chases before busting...  my goal is to bust one chase per set of 4 ..which would equal a profit of 50%  of the investment in the 4 chases ... obviously at times all 4 chases will bust, just as at times all 4 will win ..but for example, if say each chase represents 5% of your roll ..and you bust even 4 in one shot, then its a 20% downswing..these happen, no matter what style u bet no ? ..i think you are confusing what i amm doing here with what supereagle was doing..i,e putting it all on the line for a 7 game chase..you lose your busto ..there is a huge difference...that being said, i dont pretend to have all the answers..nor should anyone else.

 

Math has all the answers... it is one thing that transcends all cultures, languages, races, etc.

So after 19 bets, you're going to quit? By my count, you're at 16 bets so only three more? I don't think that's what you meant. The longer this goes, the higher the probability of busting; no matter how many chases you have going at once.

Furthermore, you're assuming you'll get to 255 having amassed four wins for each series, and then lose. Doesn't happen like that. You could just as easily lose on your first three bets on all four series.

You also state that at times, all four will lose but likewise, all four will win. Well the four winning never makes up for the four losing. In fact, you have to win A LOT to make up for losses. And like the math says, you won't be making up for the losses on your wins; you'll actually be theoretically losing 14 cents on every bet.

What you're doing and what Supereagle did is exactly the same, except he did a 7 game chase which means it takes longer to meet that loss, but when it comes, it's more damaging. You're doing the exact same but on a smaller scale and across four series, but it doesn't change the math or the fatalistic properties of chasing.

Again, I didn't wanna get too deep into this because I believe everyone is entitled to play however they see fit, and I wish them luck with their style. But in some cases, more luck is needed than others and this is one of those cases. I simply wanted to explain things to any possible tailers.

That being said, screw the odds neilsy, Destroy the Books! 

So after 19 bets, you're going to quit? By my count, you're at 16 bets so only three more? I don't think that's what you meant. The longer this goes, the higher the probability of busting; no matter how many chases you have going at once

DJ .i am not here to argue..but at least read and understand what i am doing before you comment ..and yes..the times i win all 4 will EXACTLY make up for the time i lose all 4  I dont know how more clearly to put it then this .... 4 chases, initial stake= $400 ..lose all 4 = loss of $400 .... on the flip side..4 chases. initial stake $400 ..win all 4  ..end result = $800 ...so again..before you simply explain things to tailers...read and understand what i am doing ..

Looks like i am going to hit my first level 3 game tommorow..shoulda just stuck with hockey ! .although i will take a team that is 9-0 at home all day vbs a team that cant win on the road..thanks alot Indiana !!

DJ - above sounds a little harsh.. its not meant to....and at the end of the day you may be right...time will tell ..but really..what you posted, shows that you don't fully understand what  i am doing here..nevertheless.. we'll see how it goes..

Chase 1

start roll $100

current roll $109.8

wins left to double - 16

Level 1-Pens/Panthers ODD   $7.45 to win $3.34

 

Chase 2

start roll $100

current roll $106.74

wins left to double - 17

Level 1-Canucks/Wings ODD     $7.24 to win $3.29

Chase 3

start roll $100

current roll $103,18

wins left to double - 18

Level 2  - NCAAB   Indiana -220    $23.73 to win $10.79

Chase 4

start roll $100

current roll $109.8

wins left to double - 17

Level 1- Preds/Hawks  ODD   $7.45  to win $3.34

 

 

I've read everything and still do not understand what you are doing. I thought you were doing something fairly simple; running four seperate three-game chase series using 7%, 23%, and 70% as wager amounts -- if that's true then all my math holds true. If not, please advise what I'm missing.

Hey DJ, thats only half of it, the second part and what i think makes this totally different then what Supereagle was doing is that ..that a new "set" of 4 chases does not begin, until all 4 have completed. They complete by either losing 3 in a row, or by winning 19 in a row, doubling the initial chase investment. Therefore each SET of chases has the following possible outcome

1 - ALL 4 win (i,e get to 19 wins without a loss)  = $400 profit

2- 3 Chases win , and 1 busts   = $200 Profit

3 - 2 chases win and 2 bust   =  0 profit

4- 1 chase wins and 3 lose = Loss of $200

5- all 4 chases bust   = Loss of $400

so as you see the extremes (all 4 win ..aqll 4 lose) exactly make up for each other. Given the odds in my first post from the streak calculator the expectation should be on average scenario 2 happening, a $200 profit.

If above is done with a 4k bankroll.each individual set would represent 10% of your roll with each individual chase representing 2.5% . ..

This is it till after Christmas, A level 3 hit would make a nice early present ... Merry Xmas everyone !!

Chase 1

start roll $100

current roll $109.8

wins left to double - 16

Level 1-Thrash/Bruins ODD   $7.67 to win $3.49

 

Chase 2

start roll $100

current roll $106.74

wins left to double - 17

Level 1-Canucks/Jackets ODD     $7.47 to win $3.40

Chase 3

start roll $100

current roll $103,18

wins left to double - 18

Level 3  - Flames/Stars ODD  $72.23 to win $32.83

Chase 4

start roll $100

current roll $109.8

wins left to double - 17

Level 1- Preds/Sens  ODD   $7.67  to win $3.49

 

 

Nice Hit on the level 3 ODD !!

 

Chase 1

start roll $100

current roll $113.29

wins left to double - 15

Level 1-Thrash/Bruins ODD   $7.67 to win $3.49

 

Chase 2

start roll $100

current roll $106.74

wins left to double - 17

Level 1-Canucks/Jackets ODD     $7.47 to win $3.40

Chase 3

start roll $100

current roll $105.06

wins left to double - 17

Level 3 - Flames/Stars ODD  $72.23 to win $32.83

Chase 4

start roll $100

current roll $113.29

wins left to double - 15

Level 1- Preds/Sens  ODD   $7.67  to win $3.49

You can nickel and dime all you want with this pathetic chasing shit but you'll never be a true sports investor. You even said yourself, you're just gambling for fun which explains why you don't understand expected value, expected growth, and other simple mathematic principles. You're jealous that my system works without fatalistic chasing and you're pissed off I'm telling everyone the truth behind your garbage. It doesn't matter how much you win because anyone with more than 100 bucks who is serious about making big money can't play your system. It makes no sense to bet 70% on one play, and no one with a right mind would do so. You like chasing because you can't handle losing anymore, which you have done all your life. You're a deplorable little person because instead of making logical arguments about why my system is no good, you just spout off personal insults and unbacked claims. So fuck off and continue with your risky/petty plays but leave the real talk to the big boys.

Merry Christmas idiot 

Holy Fuck!!!! How fuckin drunk am I?!?!?! Did I really hack DJ's account and write that unimaginable message earlier tonight?!?! Ummmmmm.... WHAT?!!?

Merry F'in Xmas!!!!!