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HFOUDL System

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Posted: #1
Well I've been working on a system .(needs a cooler name, so help with that lol)
HFOUDL is short for "Home Favourite Off UnderDog Loss"

The system says to bet on a team that is a home favourite in the FIRST game of a series. The Team must be coming off a loss as an underdog in the LAST game of the previous series. You can chase for the whole series or play each single game (all 3 or 4)
Both the series' must be at least 3 games.

I've only tested this for last season and so far this season, but it seems pretty good.

Last Season
(betting each game of series)
AL = 87-38 (69.60%) +39.50u
NL = 114-97 (54.03%) -7.25u
Total = 201-135 (59.82%) +32.35u

(Chase)
AL = 39-0 (100.00%) +39.00u
NL = 62-3 (95.38%) +32.23u
Total = 101-3 (97.12%) +71.23u

This Season
(betting each game of series)
AL = 69-35 (66.35%) +20.79u
NL = 75-53 (58.59%) +16.93u
Total = 144-88 (62.07%) +37.72u

(Chase)
AL = 32-1 (96.97%) +21.31u
NL = 36-6 (85.71%) -28.96u
Total = 68-7 (90.67%) -7.65u



Went 2-0 yesterday with Toronto and Cleveland <--scary game to bet on.

Tonights games are..
Cleveland -106 (single only, we won the chase last night)
 
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Posted: #2
1-0 Today, here's the new record for the season.

This Season
(betting each game of series)
AL = 70-35 (66.67%) +21.79u
NL = 75-53 (58.59%) +16.93u
Total = 145-88 (62.23%) +38.72u

July 12th - Cleveland +128
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
 
Good work...you show that this system is up +38.72 ytd, and yet only +32.5 for all of last year.  My question is, at this time last season, were the units at about half of the final total, or, were there large swings during the course of the season. Just trying to get an idea of your projection for the 2nd half of this year.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by gratefulbets:

 
Good work...you show that this system is up +38.72 ytd, and yet only +32.5 for all of last year.  My question is, at this time last season, were the units at about half of the final total, or, were there large swings during the course of the season. Just trying to get an idea of your projection for the 2nd half of this year.


That's a good observation grteful, I never really thought about that. I just tallied it team by team, so I'll have to go back through the records and look it up, I'll get back to you tonight, thanks for the input
 
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Posted: #5
And another win today, updating!

This Season
(betting each game of series)
AL = 71-35 (66.98%) +22.79u
NL = 75-53 (58.59%) +16.93u
Total = 146-88 (62.39%) +39.72u

July 13th - Cleveland +132

Let's finish this series with a 4-0 sweep!
 
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Posted: #6
Cleveland finishes the sweep!

This Season
(betting each game of series)
AL = 72-35 (67.29%) +23.79u
NL = 75-53 (58.59%) +16.93u
Total = 147-88 (62.55%) +40.72u


Time to take a break for the AS break, good luck to everyone!
 
Captain
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Posted: #7
I'll check in again to see those results...
 
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Posted: #8
Toms...there is a member here named LUNCHBOX who may have this system information. I remember someone, a few years back, discussing this exact system. I think it was him.
 
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Posted: #9
greatful, thats cool, if you could his his results it would be appreciated

Anyway, sorry for the late reply, I've been busy lately. Here's the results by month for 2007, if you have any more questions feel free to ask.

Single games (units for single is approx)
April : 21-9 (70.00%) +9.75u
May : 54-31 (63.53%) +15.25u
June : 36-34 (51.43%) -6.5u
July : 31-14 (68.89%) +13.5u
August : 35-35 (50.00%) -8.75u
September : 39-20 (66.10%) +14u
Total: 216-143 (60.17%) +37.25u

Chase (In the month that it started in)
April : 12-0 (100.00%) +12.00u
May : 25-1 (96.15%) +12.61u
June : 19-1 (95.00%) +12.62u
July : 13-0 (100.00%) +13.00u
August : 21-1 (95.45%) +10.00u
September : 17-0 (100%) +17.00u
Total : 107 - 3 (97.27%) +77.23u

No real information that we can gather from that except that I missed a couple series's the first time I went through lol
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
hey tomspeople
          interesting system ...i'm kinda new to this, what exactly do you mean by "chasing the series". thanks for the help
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by texastwister:

hey tomspeople
          interesting system ...i'm kinda new to this, what exactly do you mean by "chasing the series". thanks for the help


That basically means play the first game in the series, if it wins, stop. If it loses, bet enough on the second game to cover your loss for the first plus win 1 unit. Repeat until you win, which will win 1 unit, or until the series is done, in which case you lost the chase.
 
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Posted: #12
Did you wait for the 2nd series after All-Star break or did you use the last series of the 1st half and start of 2nd half?
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by dish:

Did you wait for the 2nd series after All-Star break or did you use the last series of the 1st half and start of 2nd half?


Use the last series of the first half.
The record for series starting right after break are 5-0 which betting each game would give you 14-4 (77.78%)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14

Thanks for the explanation Tomspeople

        So, let me see if I got it....on thur, I should have Bal and Col because they are home favs and coming off a loss as a dog in their last game. Now I could play all the games of the series, or just the games they are favored? Thanks

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by texastwister:

Thanks for the explanation Tomspeople

        So, let me see if I got it....on thur, I should have Bal and Col because they are home favs and coming off a loss as a dog in their last game. Now I could play all the games of the series, or just the games they are favored? Thanks



You could play all games of the series (including when they are dogs), or chase until you get a victory (or the series ends)

As for the two teams tomorrow, you are correct.

July 17th (For singles and start of chase) :
Baltimore -111
Colorado - 142
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
the chase lost 3 all of last season but lost 7 already this year..not too reliable of a system
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by badhank69:

the chase lost 3 all of last season but lost 7 already this year..not too reliable of a system


But betting each single game has hit 60% both seasons and racked in some nice cash
 
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Posted: #18
you bet just first gm of series or all 3 single
 
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Posted: #19
I tried to go back and compile this years record to compare your accuracy (Im not accusing you that it is wrong) and wanted to check the record for 1st game.  However, I ran into a problem.  I was using covers team section, past results, 2008.  I came up on the SEA/TB game on 4/8.  It was the ideal situation for a play on TB but they were -105.  I got to thinking that this can not be a play because that means SEA would have to be -115.  I went to check and see what SEAwas and they were listed at -103.  What the hell!  A sportsbook will not have -105 and -103.  So I do not know who was favored but I am assuming TB.  Because the BALT game on Thur, Covers has them -105 and Det -103 and the greek is showing Balt -115 Det -105.  But then again my assumption could be wrong because bookmaker has Det -111 Balt -109.  So I gave up and will moniter your system closely.  Thanks for sharing!
 
I just tried to at least see Balt and Col on the season and ran into the same problem as SEA/TB game on 4/8.
 
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Posted: #20
dish, -105 and -103 is completely normal. The juice is always "8" at covers. meaning if the dog was +130, the fav would be -138.

With -105 and -103, -103 would be the dog and -105 would be the fav.
 
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Posted: #21
dish...With BOOKMAKER, every side is a fav because of their ridiculous .20 cent line......don't ever use them!
 
Toms...but at -103/-105 there really isn't much of a difference; that's really a pick'em. None of these sites seem to  explain as to how they actually deal (categorize) with this.
 
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Posted: #22
correct, both books MLB prices suck
 
5dimes and bet jamaica have 10 cent, which is alot better
 
I think you can even find better odds on matchbook
 
 
 
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Posted: #23
Thanks for the info TP
               I will be tracking this system and seeing how it does. Thanks again
 
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Posted: #24
  TP
       I have looked at tomorrows card, and excluding the 2 plays from todays card, I have identified 5 potential plays,depending on whether they are favored. 4 should be, and 1 may be. Will post teams later on                                             
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by dish:

correct, both books MLB prices suck
 
5dimes and bet jamaica have 10 cent, which is alot better
 
I think you can even find better odds on matchbook
 
 

How does 8 cents suck more than 10 cents? Sure it's an uneven nubmer, but its bigger long term profits (or less net loss)
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